Ohio 02 expectations
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 01:07:31 PM EDT
I do agree with Tim that a prognosis at that level is lowering the bar for Schmidt. First, note that both the primary for the Republican and Democratic nominations were competitive, maybe not to the same degree, but regardless:
Republican-- 45,390 77% Democratic-- 13,774 23%Second, in the last two races that the incumbent Republican Rep. Porter ran (post-redistricting) in the Ohio 2nd, in 2004, Porter took 72% of the vote, and in 2002, he took 74% of the vote.
But this is apples and oranges, because Cook is coming from the Presidental difference, while Tagaris is pointing out the CD partisan difference. So I went at it from a different angle.
I drilled down to the more-competitive state legislative races for the Ohio House, at the county level, to see what the breakdown was in terms of Republican vs Democratic. I looked at the 2004 results for Districts 34,35,66,86,88, and 89, for those parts of the county that comprise the 2nd CD (the only Democratic district is 89). And overall, the results are just about the same as the above at the Presidential level.
In 2004's state legislative races in the Ohio 2nd, Republicans stacked up a 64-36 cumulative victory over the Democrats. The same as Bush's victory over Kerry in the CD. That's significant, because it shows there is nothing of a ticket-splitting mentality in the CD.
Just for Hackett to get within a 25% margin (to that 63-37 losing margin) would mean he's moved the race from the ~50% blowout that's happened in the Ohio 2nd CD recently, to the highwater mark for Democrats in the CD. The Ohio 2nd is such a Republican stronghold that a win by 25% is as tough as it's gets.
As a benchmark then, that 63-37 spread is the starting point for an analysis of the gains that Hackett has made above and beyond where Democrats have recently tread in the Ohio 2nd, so here's the prognosis based on Hackett's vote percentage:
WIN FACTOR Hackett: 23-28% is the norm in this CD for a Democrat. Loss Hackett: 29-37% reaches the historical plateau for a Dem. None Hackett: 38-44% is a Democratic shift of 1-8 points. Symbolic Hackett: 45-49% is a Democratic shift of 9-13 points. Significant Hackett: 50% or more is a Democratic shift of 13+ points. Tidal
A prediction would be a guess, but if you want to take the opportunity to stake out your claim, do so in the comments.
Tags: House 2006 (all tags)
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