Netroots Senate Recruitment

I am sure by now you have seen Survey USA's August approval rankings of all 100 Senators. Those Senators with high approval ratings are no surprise, as are the Senators with low approval ratings. For more detailed analysis, check out jj32's diary, and metonym's diary (good user name, metonym).

Rather than provide much of my own analysis, I would instead like to focus on current Democratic recruitment woes in four key states: Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Despite approval for the Republican Senators in these states consistently falling below 55%, and sometimes even falling into the negatives, we currently do not have a candidate in all four of these races. In Missouri, Claire McCaskill has been dithering for quite some time. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown in out, Tim Ryan is rumored to be leaning against running, and Paul Hackett might be in Iraq. In Virginia, there is no sign that Warner will challenge Allen. In Nevada, there are reports of Reid handling Ensign with kid gloves. This is getting really frustrating.

It's time to do something about this. Assuming a nightmare scenario in every state where we fail to get one of the obvious, top-tier recruits, in the comments begin listing candidates who could potentially be drafted into these campaigns. Tell us something about the candidate or candidates you suggest. We can develop a short list for every state, produce a ranking system for potential candidates in every state, and begin a draft movement for any of the four seats where it will prove necessary.

Let's get to work. It may be August 2005, but the 2006 campaign is well under way. We are starting from behind.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

95 Comments

What if Hackett went to Iraq
but was still a candidate?

Is there any legal reason he cannot still be on the ballot? It would certainly make for the most fascinating Senate campaign of all time -- with the candidate off fighting a war.

The campaign would have to be done by proxy, obviously. But the candidate could still make video appearances from Iraq.

It would certainly drive home the war as the No. 1 issue.

by Quaoar 2005-08-19 09:02AM | 0 recs
Re: What if Hackett went to Iraq
That would be incredible, a candidate running on an anti-war platform while simultaneously fighting in the war.  The GOP would still smear his patriotism, of course!
by Steve M 2005-08-19 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: What if Hackett went to Iraq
Hackett does not have an anti-war stance.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: What if Hackett went to Iraq
That statement is almost meaningless. We are there, like it or not. The question is how to we best resolve the situation.

Here's his most recent statements on Iraq.

by ignatzmouse 2005-08-19 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: What if Hackett went to Iraq
He is expanding on his previous stance on the war.  I agree with you that we are there and need to resolve the situation and I think that is what he is saying.  My comment that he is not anti-war was in that same vein.  To me anti-war means immediate withdrawal, no ifs, ands or buts.  He doesn't say that so I said he is not anti-war.  If all this just means we are all saying the same thing then ok, didn't mean to freak anybody out.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 10:17AM | 0 recs
The Great Bridge
The Great Bridge is what I'm calling the political joining of the anti-war crowds and the pro military who are concerned with the situation in Iraq.

A politician that can forge that bridge will be very formidable. I think that politicians like Hackett can do that.

by ignatzmouse 2005-08-19 10:40AM | 0 recs
By that you imply
That even Sen. Feingold is not Anti-war.  This narrow defination sounds more like something the GOP would come up with "You can't be Catholic and Pro-Choice" and all that.  I think if you're against the war, you're anti-war, if you're for it, you're pro-war.  And that's all there is.  People on this site like to smear senators and others for being against the war but being realistic.  I have much more respect for Major Hackett stance: "I'm against the war, but since we're there, we need to get out responsably" than any super-far-left unrealistic stance that says we withdraw troops tomorrow.  Let's be part of the reality based community, here.
by LaX WI 2005-08-19 12:09PM | 0 recs
Speaking of the reality based community
than any super-far-left unrealistic stance that says we withdraw troops tomorrow.

Who has demanded we start the pull out tomorrow? Maybe you would like to identify the "super-far-left" individual or group you are referring to.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 02:57PM | 0 recs
Ohio
John Glenn could beat Dewine with no trouble.  
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio
LOL, there's no way Glenn is running for office again. He's less spritely than the new pope!
by raginillinoian 2005-08-19 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio
He looked pretty spry on the campaign trail last year
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio
Glenn is four years younger than Byrd.
by Robert P 2005-08-19 09:46AM | 0 recs
Virginia
Even if Tim Kaine butchers the Gov race, there's no reason he wouldn't be a plausible candidate for Senate.  I doubt Allen is beatable by anyone other than Warner, but we still need to run the strongest candidate possible so as not to depress the downticket races.
by Steve M 2005-08-19 09:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia
But that would mean waiting several more months. I'm very uncomortable with that.
by Chris Bowers 2005-08-19 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia
I don't think we're going to get a candidate in Virginia until after the governor's race is over. For one, all of our political resources are going into the current race. We need to focus on getting Kaine elected before we go anywhere else. One step at a time. Also, I think everyone is waiting to see how this election plays out, so we know where the momentum is. Either way, I doubt Warner will jump in  the race, and if Kaine loses, there's no chance whatsoever. He wants to run for president, and if that doesn't happen I see him going after the other Warner's seat, which will hopefully be vacant.

We do need a top challenger to Allen. People assume that he's ultra popular here because this is a red state, but he's really not at all. I think Don Beyer would be a good choice. He was the lieutenant governor first for Doug Wilder and then while George Allen was the governor. He's a progressive, and as far as I know, fairly popular.

by Saddlebags12 2005-08-19 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia
What about Wilder?  He's supposed to have reinvented himself as mayor of Richmond?
by David Kowalski 2005-08-19 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia
Don Beyer would get plenty of attention and with a grassroots campaign could be a winner!  

 

by odonnell2006 2005-08-19 01:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia
Wilder is interesting. He has sort of reinvented himself, and he's very popular among African Americans. He gets into some trouble with white Dems not for racial reasons, but because of his relations with other Democrats in the state. His non-endorsement of Don Beyer in the 1997 gubernatorial election was a big problem that year, and he was played very much into the hands of Republicans when he sort of challenged Mark Warner as a tax-raiser in 2001.

This year Wilder's playing footsie with everyone running for Governor and hasn't endorsed Tim Kaine even though the election is in less than 3 months (Kaine endorsed Wilder in his mayoral bid, but Wilder hasn't seen fit to return the favor and is instead giving interviews about how crappy Richmond was when Kaine was mayor and how great it is now that Wilder is mayor).

Allen is not unbeatable, but it's tough to see anyone jumping in as late as November and getting their act together financially in time to give him a real run for his money unless Mark Warner surprises everyone and challenges him. That's not 100% out of the question, but like I say, it would be a real surprise to Virginia Democrats if Warner did anything but run for president (unless retirement for John Warner changes the picture).

by redsoxkangaroo 2005-08-20 03:02PM | 0 recs
great thread
We need backups for these scenarios. I don't live in any of these states, but I'm interested in reading others' opinions here. Let's think outside of the realm of traditional politicians, too.

Besides the 4 states listed, we could also use netroots recruitment for:

Arizona (vs. Kyl)
Indiana (vs. Lugar)
Maine (vs. Snowe)... admittedly a bit of a longshot.

by tparty 2005-08-19 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
lol... Snowe was the most popular of all Senators in the SUSA poll.  The breakdown was fascinating too, Dems approve of her more than Republicans do.

While Lugar says he's in I'm not so convinced.  He's getting up there in years.  If anything, he's trying to win one more so he can resign and give Mitch Daniels the pleasure of selecting his replacement.

by HoosierJosh 2005-08-19 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
Still, wouldn't MOST democrats vote against snowe if they had a great democrat on the ticket?  
by Robert P 2005-08-19 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
Not so sure.  They had Chellie Pingree a few years ago and Susan Collins got re-elected by a significant margin.
by HoosierJosh 2005-08-19 10:06AM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
Dems. are being stupid than if they can approve of the way snowe has served in the Senate.
by Liberal 2005-08-19 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
I think Pederson will be fine for Arizona.

We just need SOMEONE for Maine and Indiana ever if they are not to win.  Just make the GOP spend some cash.

I really am starting to get worried on Claire in Missouri though.  How can we have candidates in Texas, Utah, and Mississippi but not in the winnable areas?

by Trowaman 2005-08-19 09:29AM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
I fear it would be wishful thinking to think that a black woman from Indianapolis could win statewide in Indiana, just like Stephanie Tubbs-Jones couldn't win in Ohio, Carolyn Kilpatrick couldn't win in Michigan, Sheila Jackson-Lee couldn't win in Texas, and Cynthia McKinney couldn't win in Georgia.  There are a lot of racists and sexists in those states who might otherwise vote Democratic.
by lorax 2005-08-19 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: great thread
I fear my congresswoman is at the end of her political career.  Every time I have seen her in the past year, she has looked horribly ill (for example, in a wheelchair, wearing a surgical mask, etc.).

Any Democrat who runs statewide wins NW Indiana... even if they lose badly everywhere else in the state.  It's pretty sad because the Democratic bench isn't very deep in Indiana anymore.  The only statewide elected Democrat is Evan Bayh; only 2 out of 9 Representatives are Dems; both houses of the state legislature are controlled by Reps.

by HoosierJosh 2005-08-19 09:56PM | 0 recs
Anyone but that moron Ryan
and here is why

Suddenly that Democrats for life are crooning on the phenominal successes in the past six month... that is since Reid has been in leadership.

THIS IS A LITMUS TEST.

by Parker 2005-08-19 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Productive as always Parker.
by Chris Bowers 2005-08-19 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
So what does that make you?
by Parker 2005-08-19 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
I'm trying to come up with a list of candidates, and you chime in not to suggest anyone, but isntead to blast one candidate and call him a moron.

If it makes me anything, hopefully it makes me a very different person than you.

by Chris Bowers 2005-08-19 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
You asked:

Tell us something about the candidate

I said Ryan was a moron...

by Parker 2005-08-19 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Get lost.
by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-19 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
I disagree. As a constituent of Ryan, I think he would make a great senator. He's solid on environmental and public-interest issues, supports stem-cell research (may 24, 2005 was the day of the vote), opposes the FMA, and supports family planning. In other words: my kind of guy.

Oh, and before you smear me as an anti-choicer, I'll have you know I was a member of Planned Parenthood when I was in high school and have supported them ever since (and that was a rather conservative CATHOLIC school for that matter).

by corran horn 2005-08-19 09:34AM | 0 recs
Estate tax vote
He voted for repeal of the estate tax.  While, despite that, I would hope that he would run now that a better choice, Brown, isn't, that vote says a lot about him.  And it ain't good.
by Paleo 2005-08-19 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
y'know there are other issues too?

Environment
Iraq
Education
Health Care
Preserving other supreme court decisions
Gun control
equal rights (races, gender, and sexuality)

Just because someone breaks on one issue it does not mean we should abandon them if they agree with the party on over 80% of the other issues.

I'm pro choice, but people have a right to feel the way they want on issues, we just get to choose whether we support them.  If you want to break one on or two issues from the platform, fine.  It's wen you start breaking on most things that stuff gets a little weird.  After Ryan's draft speech I would be fine with him.

by Trowaman 2005-08-19 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Yes there are but Ryan is on the side that puts MILLIONS of womens lives in danger. More women have died from back alley abortions than on the fields in Iraq.

I guess the only way for women to "be taken serious" is to don a uniform.

by Parker 2005-08-19 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
what a lie!  Please stop acting like a Republican and get your facts straight, OK?
by Columbus Donkey 2005-08-19 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
What is a lie?... that more than 1800 women have died from abortions in this country...
by Parker 2005-08-19 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Even if the guy doesn't approve of abortion doesn't mean he isn't a democrat.  Litmus Tests are a crappy way for picking people.
by Columbus Donkey 2005-08-19 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Yes, but they are a good indicator in this matter on the health and well being of millions of women.

Women will DIE and their health will bein Danger from backwater policies that people like Ryan endorse.

by Parker 2005-08-19 09:44AM | 0 recs
Pro-Choice People Should Pray Ryan Runs
Parker, I know you are passionate about opposing or supporting candidates based on their position on choice regardless of party or positions on any other issue.  Still, I think the anti-choice bloc adopts a much better political strategy then NARAL and the pro-choice groups.  They generally support Republicans who have the best chance to win regardless of party because they realize ANY vote for ANY Repugnican  congressional or senate candidate is anti-choice because their caucus supports that position by an overwelming majority.  

Want examples?  Look at Cheney's fundraising support for Chafee.  (By the way, are you comfortable supporting the same guy the Bush Administration is in that race?).  Look at Rove's historic support for Kay Hutchinson, support which will be forthcomming in spades next year.  

And this is not just their position when the candidate is an incumbent.  In the 2002 election, Rove et al consistently supported social moderates as Senat candidates, Dole in NC, Lamar in TN, Coleman in MN. instead of stronger pro-life people because they wanted to regain control of the Senate.  S

As for me, a pro-choice progressive, I know that ANY vote I cast for ANY congressional Democratic candidate is a PRO-CHOICE vote because if we regain control of the Congress, pro-choice Senators will be Committee Chairs, not anti-choice Repugnicans.

So, ya I hope Ryan runs.  It is the best thing that could happen in Ohio for the pro-choice position.

by Andy Katz 2005-08-19 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Pro-Choice People Should Pray Ryan Runs
Very interesting way to put it. I've never thought of it from that perspective.
by ignatzmouse 2005-08-19 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone but that moron Ryan
Don't suggest a viable alternative, just bash our guys!  Good to have your insight!  Seriously, with friends like this, who needs Republicans?
by LaX WI 2005-08-19 12:13PM | 0 recs
Time for Kamakazi candidates?
Wouldn't it be cool to run a Kamakazi candidate in one or more of these races if top-tier candidates don't materialize? I'm thinking total outsiders who are somewhat telegenic and willing to go out there and trash the Republican party and where they've gotten us. A couple of reasonably well funded candidates railing about how Republicans have proven to be lying, incompetant, and corrupt politicians who tricked their supporters into that support would introduce an interesting measure of fear, uncertainty and doubt into the minds of their normal constituency. And we might find that articulate, well spoken, trash talking "normal guys" might catch a fire--particularly with netroots support.
by MikeNormal 2005-08-19 09:32AM | 0 recs
Jerry Springer
could he win in Ohio?
by gypo 2005-08-19 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Jerry Springer
NO WAY!!!
by Columbus Donkey 2005-08-19 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Jerry Springer
As has been said before, Springer's negatives are at around 70. He may be trying to reinvent himself, but most people still remember him for the TV show.
by dantheman 2005-08-19 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerry Springer
Springer = large Republican moral turnout.
by Liberal 2005-08-20 08:02PM | 0 recs
TIM RYAN FOR SENATE
Ohio needs him to run.   If he doesn't we might be in some trouble.  From what I have heard, Hackett won't run.  There is talk about him being the Lt. Governor nominee, but I doubt that will happen either.

Tim Ryan is Ohio's last best chance.

by Columbus Donkey 2005-08-19 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: TIM RYAN FOR SENATE
From what you've heard?
by ignatzmouse 2005-08-19 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: TIM RYAN FOR SENATE
are you hearing something different?
by Columbus Donkey 2005-08-19 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: TIM RYAN FOR SENATE
Nobody is telling me anything.
by ignatzmouse 2005-08-19 10:41AM | 0 recs
Can someone explain this?
Why are Carper, Lieberman and Conrad ranked so high?

1 ME Snowe, Olympia R SR 77% 18% 59%

2 ME Collins, Susan R JR 74% 21% 53%

3 IL Obama, Barack D JR 71% 20% 51%  

4 ND Dorgan, Byron D JR 70% 24% 46%

4 AZ McCain, John R SR 69% 23% 46%  

6 DE Carper, Thomas D JR 66% 22% 44%

6 VT Leahy, Patrick D SR 68% 24% 44%

6 CT Lieberman, Joseph D JR 68% 24% 44%  

6 ND Conrad, Kent

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Can someone explain this?
Because most constituents are closer to the center than the average MyDD/dKos reader.
by Adam B 2005-08-19 10:28AM | 0 recs
Try again
That one doesn't wash.
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Try again
Because they are Republicans... I am not a rocket scientist but when LIEberman has a higher ranking amongst Republicans than Democrats... that is a clue.
by Parker 2005-08-19 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Can someone explain this?
It has something to do with methodology. This appears to be a bi-partisan poll, so the most popular Senators are those who get the most support from both parties combined.

I'm thinking all three of them were ranked very high by freepers. It would be nice to see a partisan breakdown. I know for a fact that Lieberman scores higher with Connecticut GOPERS than with Connnecticut Dems.

I'm also thinking Snowe and Collins were likewise scored higher by Dems than by freepers.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 10:35AM | 0 recs
The answer is in the survey
They have an interactive feature!

Snowe scores higher with Democrats that she does with Republicans. Still higher than I would have expected with Republicans.

All of the scores are too high. It says Lieberman scores 66% with liberals.

Trent Lott scores 47% with liberals.

So it has something to do with being a tracking poll, instead of a popularity poll.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: The answer is in the survey
Rep. Taylor holds his incredibly unlikely seat on the strength of years of conservative credentials, while Rep. Thompson represents the Mississippi delta.  I don't think Lott is getting unseated this time around.
by lorax 2005-08-19 05:12PM | 0 recs
Two possibilities
The uncynical answer would be "Gee whiz, Mr. Boatright, it seems like people sure do like moderates from both parties! What a great system."

The cynical answer would be that residents of these various states respond favorably to those senators who zealously represent their states' narrowly-drawn economic interests. Carper does a great job of representing the interests of Delaware's credit card industry, maybe even more so than Biden (see bankruptcy reform). Insurance is the big industry in Connecticut and Lieberman does their bidding (see class action reform). And the farmers of North Dakota love Conrad's pro-ethanol stance.

by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-19 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Two possibilities
Thanks Crazy Vaclav. That's exactly what I was looking for. I'm not sure it completely explains their popularity in this poll, but it's a start.

I have never followed tracking polls before, and this is the first one I've actually looked at in any detail. Like I said earlier, there's something about the methodology that is different that I can't pin down.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 03:00PM | 0 recs
Because it gauges support in their states
Instead of asking MyDD.  Seriously, you act surprised that moderates, which is a term that describes a majority of the electorate, like moderate senators?  Of course they're popular in their home states!  Which is where people elect them, so it's those people who get a say in what they do, not us (and I agree with that, by the way).

Look at the numbers on them and you'll see that they're popular.  This is a gauge of approval, not a poll asking "How liberal do you think Senator [name] is?"  Don't like it?  Move to CT or DE, or wherever you have a problem and run against them in a primary and see how you do!

by LaX WI 2005-08-19 12:19PM | 0 recs
I would add to this
That these senators are elected to represent everyone in their districts, not just the people who voted for them.  I applaud that when the GOP and the Dems approve of a candidate, that means they're doing something right.
by LaX WI 2005-08-19 12:20PM | 0 recs
Yeah, right
Biden and Carper are doing something right by screwing the American people over with bankruptcy legislation.
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, right
Well, that kind of knee-jerk reaction really isn't that surprising; try looking at the big picture for a change.  The bankruptcy bill is one bill.  Both SENATOR Biden and SENATOR Carper have long and distinuished careers, working for the best interests of the American people and their constituants.  Sometimes they're wrong.  But generally, they're not.  If you're not one of them, you don't get a say in how they vote.  If you are, how come you don't run against them and let the people of Delaware have a say at whose philosiphy they like more.  Just remember that some of those people aren't Democrats, and you need to work for them too.
by LaX WI 2005-08-19 06:10PM | 0 recs
Missouri....
McCaskill is the only top tier candidate I can think of.

If she doesn't run, who can we draft?

Jeff Smith (liberal who nearly won 3rd District primary in 2002 but lost to Russ Carnahan).

Bekki Cook (former Secy of State)

Joe Maxwell (liberal former Lt Governor with outstate credibility)

Roger Wilson (not running but could be formidable)

Dick Gephardt?? (not likely but he would have name recognition if nothing else)

Robin Carnahan (Current Secy of State and daughter of late Governor Mel and former Senator Jean Carnahan)

William Lacy Clay (Dist 1 Congressman)

Emmanuel Cleaver (Congressman from KC)

Ike Skelton (hawkish Congressman from 4th District)

Nancy Famer (lost badly to Bond in '04)

Jamie Metzl (former 5th Dist candidate with netroots support)

Most of these people aren't interested but any thoughts? Any other names?

by Keith Brekhus 2005-08-19 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Missouri....
Thank you. These are the sort of lists we need.
by Chris Bowers 2005-08-19 10:48AM | 0 recs
I heard a name...
A while back, there was talk of a state senator who was a major advocate for stem cells.  He was in a wheelchair because he had a disease that we might someday be able to treat, and he said he was considering running because of Talent's opposition to stem cell research.  Sorry I can't be more specific, I'm not from MO, and am not as in tune with their politics as I'd like... any natives or residents help me out?
by LaX WI 2005-08-19 12:22PM | 0 recs
Chuck Graham.....
He is my State Senator actually and would make a nice candidate, but he has since ruled out running so I didn't include him.

We have several good potential candidates in Mid-Missouri but none that are ready to spring it into the big time as early as '06,

From around Columbia, MO

Former rep Vicky Riback Wilson (very progressive and popular locally but unlikely to win statewide)

Former rep Tim Harlan (same as Wilson-very liberal)

Rural Rep Wes Shoemeyer (good solid populist who can win over moderates adn some conservatives)

Current Rep Jeff Harris (probably will run for Governor someday, popular moderate with tough on crime fighting credentials but liberal positions on gay rights and abortion, etc)

Former Rep Ken Jacob (polarizing figure who got clobbered by Bekki Cook in Lt Governor primary in '04)

There mey be ex-reps and current Reps from other areas that could be viable. Deaniacs might help promote somebody like Jeff Smith or Maria Chappelle-Nidal. Other Reps or Former Reps? Belinda Harris? Vicki Walker? Craig Bland? Mary Bland? Jim Kreider? Ted House? Steve Gaw?

We need a candidate. Anybody available?

by Keith Brekhus 2005-08-19 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Missouri....
I wouldn't worry too much about Claire not running.  I would be willing to put good money down that she is in for a couple of reasons.

  1.  My sources in the state are pretty involved in Democratic politics, and they tell me that rumors are swirling that she is in.  What they're saying is this: she saw what happened to Nancy Farmer, and it has made her wary that the DSCC will dump her at crunch time like they did to Farmer.  However, it is pretty common knowledge that the DSCC has been on full court press to get her to run as they're dying to heave cash at her.  According to the buzz, they convinced her earlier this summer and she is currently doing behind the scenes work to get ready for announcement which will likely be in the next few weeks.

  2.  Her auditor reelection account (which cannot be used for a potential senate run) is a paltry $70,000.  Claire is a great fundraiser, and this can only mean that she hasn't been pushing for cash.  This is really probably the strongest indicator.

  3.  There are strategic reasons to keep the media guessing in a situation like this.  Claire understands this, because she did it when she ran for governor.  In fact, she announced very late.  Interestingly enough, I've heard eyewitness accounts from MO dem activists that she was letting it be known she was running at a county dem meeting at least a month before she announced to the media.  She likes her campaigns to come roaring out of the gate, and that means getting everything in place before the announcement.

  4.  She may have crossed Holden, but she is a party soldier.  She knows that the longer she dawdles, the harder it will be for someone else to put together a campaign if she does bow out.  Hence, I suspect the dawdle is an act.

Frankly, I would be much more concerned about Ohio.  Claire is in, and she'll win.
by rapid response 2005-08-19 04:34PM | 0 recs
Frustrating...
One thing Daschle did do when he was leader was go after the other senator in his state (Republican Larry Pressler), unlike Reid. There are vulnerable incumbents in Nevada, Ohio, and Missouri, yet none of our top candidates want to run. WTF? I suppose Brown and Ryan just love being powerless members of the minority and are too scared to risk anything. McCaskill thinks she can challenge Blunt again (and who knows how things will be in 3 years?). And then Reid and Ensign seem to have a pact to make sure nobody runs against the other since they are both potentially vulnerable. And we wonder why we're in the minority. It's not because people don't agree with us, it's because we never really try to take back Congress and keep running mediocre presidential candidates who adopt a watered down DLC platform and lose, only to have the DLC blame them for being too liberal and saying we need to go even further to the right. So whenever we get frustrated with Bush and the Congress, we should lay the blame where it really belongs: with the cowardly Washington Democratic leadership whose horrible candidates and campaign strategies enable those Republicans to get into office in the first place.
by dole4pineapple 2005-08-19 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Frustrating...
Screw Reid i don't care what  his little deal was he won't get a free ride in 2010 and he is dumb for giving Ensign one i encourage Dems. to ignore Reid and go for it.
by Liberal 2005-08-19 12:25PM | 0 recs
Indiana
No idea if either of them would run but two who spring to mind to challenge Lugar in Indiana would be:

Governor Joe Kernan
   -recently defeated by Mitch Daniels for governorship but generally popular and relatively youthful.

Rep. Tim Roemer
   -once again, no idea if he would run but would be a step up from Lugar.

by Curt Matlock 2005-08-19 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Indiana
Roemer has said he would not run, but haven't heard anything about Kernan.  That's not a bad thought.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 12:22PM | 0 recs
Reid...
I like a lot of the stuff Reid is doing as Democratic leader, but I think discouraging people from challenging Ensign is just dumb. If a Democrat held the other seat in Tennssee, would Bill Frist discourage challenges? No way, and especially since he campaigned against Daschle. If Dan Mongiardo had upset Bunning in Kentucky, would Mitch McConnell discourage challenges? No way. He'd do everything he could to make sure that Mongiardo would lose in 6 years. And even Tom Daschle, who was rather timid in opposing the Republicans recruited Tim Johnson (then the state's at-large congressman) to run against the other Republican senator. Although, you have to wonder if he regrets it now, since Johnson's replacement as congressman was none other than the master of political cheap shots, John Thune. As for Reid, he should tell Schumer to go hunting for challengers to Ensign if he's not comfortable doing it himself. I also don't understand why McCaskill and Ryan are hesitating. You can't gain something without being willing to lose something.
by dole4pineapple 2005-08-19 11:04AM | 0 recs
Oscar Goodman
Mayor of Las Vegas (and hispanic) is supposedly our best potential recruit in Nevada.  That, or peeling one of the two Democrats out of the gubernatorial primary.

Reid beat Ensign by like 540 votes in 1998, when Reid was an incumbent Senator and Ensign was a retired Congressman; Ensign won an open seat in 2000.  I imagine Reid is happy to keep such a formidable enemy close at hand.  Reid himself is up in 2010, and will always be vulnerable to top-flight well-funded challengers.  

by texas dem 2005-08-19 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Oscar Goodman
From what I've heard Goodman would have zero appeal outside of LV.
by Lavoisier1794 2005-08-19 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Oscar Goodman
Also heard he was more interested in running for Governor.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Oscar Goodman
heh LV makes up like 40+ percent of the vote and with highturnout probibly over 45% in LV the rest of the state won't vote in highturout margins.
by Liberal 2005-08-19 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Representative Berkely
Knowing she can return to the House?  We'd have to run a placeholder candidate who promised to step aside for her in 2008.  And that person would be vulnerable to a spirited R challenge.  And for that matter, a defeated Berkely would be vulnerable to that same challenger in 2008.  And she might lose her seniority and committee assignments in the process.

I expect you know a lot more about this than I do, but I haven't heard of many times when someone got to be confident of getting their seat back.  I'd like to hear more.

by texas dem 2005-08-19 04:22PM | 0 recs
Ohio et al Seriously
Upthread I suggested the name of Senator Glenn to run in Ohio.  Most took this as facetiousness on my part.  But in the past the party has reached out to elder statesmen (Lautenberg-NJ) in difficult times.  In the toxic corrupt atmosphere in Ohio I can think of few people with more integrity to suggest.  I think we could do much worse in some of our battleground states than to look for one last hurrah from some of our past leaders.  I saw Gebhardt mentioned earliier for MO if we can't get Claire to run.  Too gimmicky?  Too lame?  As I said, I think we could do far worse.  Something to think about.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-19 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio et al Seriously
eh i don't think Jhon Gleen wants anything to do with politics but we may have to beg him if Ryan and Hackett don't run.
by Liberal 2005-08-19 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio et al Seriously
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a highly respected liberal from Toledo
by lorax 2005-08-19 05:14PM | 0 recs
Virginia...
As I pointed out in a Diary earlier this week, there has got to be security folks in Virginia fed up as all hell with the direction this country is heading who could be convinced to run for senate on the Dem ticket. I haven't gotten much support for the idea of Drafting Anthony Zinni to join the Democratic Party and run for the seat, but I still think he'd make one hell of a Democratic statesman. Regardless of that, there just has to be someone from the military in VA who we could put in the ring...
by Alex Urevick 2005-08-19 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia...
wonder how well Zinni will do i hope we can get some polls out there.
by Liberal 2005-08-19 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia...
Do you know anything about Gen. Burns?
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia...
haven't heard of him. What's his first name?
by Alex Urevick 2005-08-19 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia...
never mind... I know who you're talking about (it's Byrnes, not burns):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/10/AR2005081001644.html

I'm not sure what he was really fired for, but obviously there are some skeletons in the closet here. I'm not sure if they're skeletons that would hurt or help a campaign, but most belong to the first category.

Here's the wikipedia entry for Byrnes

by Alex Urevick 2005-08-19 03:48PM | 0 recs
Ohio
I would like to see someone fresh in the Democratic Party in Ohio for a change.

Most of the Democratic faces that are mentioned time and again for Gov. or Senate runs are older statesmen still embedded into the Democrat-union-party machine. The problem with that is that the union-manufacturing base of power has eroded significantly, and it makes problems for new progressive democrats to break into their own party here because of the union-democrat's  brand of populist social conservatism. While Toledo may be a 1-party town for the Democrats, the rest of the state isn't, and they've seen all these same candidates and their platforms before, yet consistently have voted for Republicans for the past 16 years.

I'd like to see someone new, with a more progressive message run against DeWine.

I think Theresa Fedor, a Ohio State Senate Minority Whip, make a run for the seat.

by T Dubya Ault 2005-08-19 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio
What about Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune? I believe he may be the person referred to upthread, the politican who is in a wheelchair (owing to growing tumors on his spine). I'm not sure stem cells is going to play against DeWine (was he in favor of research)?

Portune's fellow commissioner is DeWine's son who got trounced by Schmidt in the OH-02 primary. Portune is a Democrat who has been elected in this Republican area repeatedly. I don't know how he stands on issues and he probably has next-to-zero statewide name ID but isn't that why we have netroots?

by johnlarca 2005-08-19 02:38PM | 0 recs
Virginia
There's already a draft former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer movement. He seems like a respectable person to get behind. And is Former Navy Sec. James Webb a serious potential candidate or not?
by johnlarca 2005-08-19 02:40PM | 0 recs
Candidate in VA
David Ashe --- who ran a great campaign in the 2nd district (va beach chesapaeke and eastern shore

He's another Iraq war veteran......Irag veterans running against a bogus war sends a message more powerful than Cindy Sheehan's.....

by kmwray 2005-08-19 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Time for Kamakazi candidates?
uh Jewish people tend to be Democratic and i havent seen a graphic showing them in Ohio going for the Republicans.
by Liberal 2005-08-20 08:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Time for Kamakazi candidates?
and how will Jerry Springer carry those people?
by Liberal 2005-08-21 09:35AM | 0 recs
matt brown for us senate
has anyone checked out matt brown's us senate campaign in RI?  he called for a withdrawl back in august and now many are following his lead.  
this guy can beat chafee.  take a look.  
by psubobbyp 2005-12-11 07:10AM | 0 recs

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