Warner and the Home State Bonus

by Chris Bowers, Tue Jul 26, 2005 at 01:07:40 PM EDT

In addition to showing Kaine tying things up with Kilgore and Gov. Mark Warner leading Allen in a Senate matchup, Mason-Dixon also recently polled Virginia residents about a hypothetical Presidential matchup between Warner and Allen:Though voters in the poll appear lukewarm about having either candidate run for president, 55 percent said they would consider voting for Warner if he wins the 2008 Democratic nomination. Only 47 percent said they would consider voting for Allen and 41 percent said they would not consider voting for him. Only thirty percent said they would not consider voting for Warner if he ran for President. The internals of the poll are also striking, with Warner coming at with a 56 / 14 / 29 favorable / unfavorable / neutral rating, and Allen coming in at 51 / 23 / 23. Warner's favorable rating is amazing, and if he could defeat Allen in Virginia, then there isn't a single non-Virginian in the entire Republican Party who would even have a prayer. Rasmussen also recently found that Warner would defeat Allen in a possible Presidential matchup in the state.

It would appear that if Warner is the Presidential nominee for the Democratic Party in 2008, then Virginia will be at least lean-Dem, and possibly safe Dem. If Kerry-Edwards had won Virginia in 2004, then only Iowa or New Mexico would have been enough to take the election. No doubt about it, as Jerome suggested earlier, some sort of Warner / Richardson ticket combination would severely complicate electoral math for Republicans (especially if we sweep Ohio in 2006 and clean up the election system there). Combined, the two of them would help Democrats in literally every single lean-Republican state that is either trending Democrat or holding steady.

For your amusement, and because it is what I do, using the Partisan Index I tracked the advantage every new Presidential nominee since 1972 brought to his party in his home state. Currently, Virginia is at RNC +5.7, but it looks like Warner would bring a benefit of around 15 points for Democrats, slightly higher than normal: 

Candidate    Year    State    Bonus
McGovern     1972     SD      25.1
Ford	    1976     MI      16.3
Carter	    1976     GA      59.9
Reagan	    1980     CA       3.2
Mondale      1984     MN      12.6
Bush I	    1988     TX      -4.4
Dukakis      1988     MA       0.2
Clinton      1992     AR      18.7
Dole	    1996     KS      16.0
Bush II      2000     TX       8.4
Gore	    2000     TN       1.7
Kerry	    2004     MA       0.8
Then again, if anything is clear from looking at these numbers, it is that the bonus a nominee receives in his home state is anything but predictable. Still, Warner would look solid in Virginia, and it is particularly amusing that Bush I actually seemed to be a drag on Republican performance in Texas.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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24 Comments

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Governors
Although the bounce looks unpredictable, it is noticably more reliable and higher for sitting governors. In the cases of Bush I and Gore, being 8 years removed from representing their state probably dulled the effect. Who knows if the same will happen to Warner... maybe we'll see. The effect also seems to work better for Govs and not Sens, for many possible reasons.
by AC4508 2005-07-26 01:25PM | 0 recs
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I imagine sitting senators...
...have the same bounce.  Sitting VPs have a home state of Washington, D. C., to be perfectly blunt.  Plus, if your home state tends to lean your way anyways (IE, deep red states for Republicans and deep blue states for Democrats), the bonus would be less than if it is a swing state or leans the other way.
by Geotpf 2005-07-26 01:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: Governors
Actually, Mondale, at 12.6, is the median non-Governor bonus, and Bush II, at 8.4, is themeidan Governor bonus. The Governor bonus is actually lower than the non-Governor bonus.
by Chris Bowers 2005-07-26 02:44PM | 0 recs
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Warner's added advantage
I am sure I am inviting scorn from some supporters of other centrists, but I truly think Warner is the best positioned to compete in other southern states as well. Arkansas, W. Virginia, and Tennessee, are all states I think he will outpreform any other dem candidate in.  I acknowledge there are legitimate arguments for others having advantages in places like Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, etc, but as for the south, I think Warner is the guy.
by dre2k5 2005-07-26 02:20PM | 0 recs
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Re: Warner's added advantage
You could make an argument for Clark in this case...but I tend to agree with you.
by artvandelay 2005-07-26 02:30PM | 0 recs
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Re: Warner's added advantage
I think Warner, the DLCer that he is, might be able to be competitive in some southern states and possibly pick up 1 or 2, but as someone who lives in the south, I would not count on a huge electoral sweep.  Personally, I think a midwestern and western strategy would show more promise.
As far as presidential candidates having an advantage in their own states, that's to be expected, but not just because they happen to reside there. I think its because they already have a campaign structure built and many voters have probably met the candidate.  That's what i think really makes the difference.
by schwompa 2005-07-26 03:00PM | 0 recs
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Re: Warner's added advantage
Absolutely right.  And what makes Warner such a compelling candidate is the fact that he enjoys campaigning in areas that the Democratic party for some reason has deemed off limits and "un-winnable" during Presidential elections.

As I wrote a couple of days ago, Warner is an electoral nightmare for Republicans.  Way more so than say Hillary Clinton (who I happen to think would have much of the same electoral problems Kerry had).  As Chris wrote in his diary, all Warner has to do is carry the states the completely inept Kerry campaign captured, his own state, and one more "small" one.  Not easy, but certaintly a goal that can be achieved.  

In my opinion, this guy is the candidate to support if you are looking from purely an electoral standpoint.  He puts extreme pressure on purple states that Bush won and Kerry capitulated on.  Because of his moderate views, he makes states in the midwest that Kerry won (Michigan, MN, and Wisconsin) virtually unattainable for Republicans, thus shifting the electoral focus to states like AK, MZ, and out west.  Additionally, he forces the Republicans to spend lots of money to protect "their" turf, the exact opposite of what happened in 2004.

Why does he do this?  Because he appeals to a wider audience and cross section of the populace than Kerry did.  He has done a remarkable job in Virginia from a fiscal point of view, turning a large multi-billion dollar deficit into a surplus, accomplishing this during the recession.  He's tough on crime (violent crimes are at a 30 year low in the state) but still believes in progressive priniciples.  

I sincerely hope the party gives Mark Warner a fair shake in 2008 (assuming he runs).  He is a proven winner and I believe has a great shot at becoming our next President.  

 

by Eric11 2005-07-26 05:14PM | 0 recs
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ps on H.W.
I think something else to consider is that Bush Sr. shared a homestate with third party candidate ross perot who in 92 was considerably strong.
by dre2k5 2005-07-26 02:24PM | 0 recs
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Re: ps on H.W.
That negative bonus came from 1988, not 1992. Still, with Spanish-sepakign Dukakis and beloved Texan Lloyd Bentson on the Dem ticket in 1988, and with Bush already on the Republican ticket for two cycle, a negaive drag in 1988 isn't entirely surprising.
by Chris Bowers 2005-07-26 02:46PM | 0 recs
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The Bushes are from New England
Always have been, always will be. Also, I love W's fake Texas accent. When he gets emotional he slips back into fratspeek.
by Paul Goodman 2005-07-26 06:58PM | 0 recs
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Re: ps on H.W.
my bad, i didnt see the year.  Good point about Bentson, in fact, he beat Bush Sr. in a senate race in the 60s
by dre2k5 2005-07-26 07:24PM | 0 recs
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While we're on the subject
Someone asked an interesting question yesterday.

Can anyone name a state Hillary can carry in 2008 that did not go to Kerry in 2004?

by Gary Boatwright 2005-07-26 02:54PM | 0 recs
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I can think of four
Florida, due to Jewish New York transplants.  Arkansas, due to it being her true home state and the Clinton machine still being slightly active.  Iowa and New Mexico, because Gore carried both so they are real close, especially in a non-incumbent election.  She can win, although she is definitely not the most "electable" canidate-that probably is Warner.

However, with her emulating Lieberman more and more each passing day, I may do what I did the last time Lieberman was on the ticket-vote for the Libertarian.  Of course, I live in California, so my vote is worthless.  If I was in a swing state, I would put a clothespin on my nose and vote for her.

by Geotpf 2005-07-26 04:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: I can think of four
Jews voted for Kerry anyway so I don't really understand how that changes Florida.  After all of these years in Washington and now a Yankee, I really doubt Arkansas still sees her one its own either.  
by Eric11 2005-07-26 05:16PM | 0 recs
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Ohio
nt
by Paul Goodman 2005-07-26 06:55PM | 0 recs
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Re: Ohio
Ohio is a possibility, but here's guessing Warner or Bayh each have a much easier time carrying the state than Hillary "I'm still a New York senator" does.
by Eric11 2005-07-26 07:54PM | 0 recs
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so
So, Chris, does this post mean that MyDD is going to officially endorse Mark Warner for 2008 soon?
by blueflorida 2005-07-26 04:32PM | 0 recs
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Uh, no Peg
(flushes toilet).

My man Feingold went down with his divorce, and I do not se someone who excites me on the horizon.

by Chris Bowers 2005-07-26 05:04PM | 0 recs
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I don't know about that
I've even heard the rumor that the divorce was caused by Russ's wanting to run for president (at least in part).  Dunno if that's true, but if it is, he is running for sure.

I really don't think the divorce hurts Feingold significantly.  He'll have to play it just right, but his political skills are excellent, so I imagine he can.  In fact, in a perverse way, it might actually help him, as it gives the Republicans something stupid to attack, so when they do so, they will look dumb and it will backfire.

by Geotpf 2005-07-27 08:36AM | 0 recs
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Warner
For president, no thanks.  He should run for senate and take out Allen, which would be a twofer.  Capturing a Republican seat, and eliminating a presidential candidate.

A Warner-Richardson ticket may complicate the electoral math for the Republicans, but it would also send many progressive Democrats for the exits.  The all-DLC ticket could bleed votes in the upper midwest and the pacific northwest, at least.  So, they could capture Virginia and New Mexico while losing Wisconsin and Oregon.

by Paleo 2005-07-26 04:59PM | 0 recs
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What?
Explain how any of that will happen.  As a progressive from the upper midwest I completely disagree with that assessment.  We are not east coast liberals.  I am certain that the upper midwest would take very kindly to Mark Warner.  The progressives in Wisconsin would see somone who is a straight talking, successful businessman who transformed Virginia financially while still not ignoring progressive ideals.  
by Eric11 2005-07-26 08:01PM | 0 recs
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Does anyone ever consider
how these people will perform once in office? Id est, what kind of President they would make? Hillary could win; but I'm not sure if that is a good thing. A guy like Clark, Kerry, or Richardson would probably be superb. A lot of these others seem like light weights to me, esp. Edwards. Its hard for me to campaign for someone who isn't up to the job (like W).
by Paul Goodman 2005-07-26 07:01PM | 0 recs
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a question
what progressive principles has warner stuck to as governor? the word "progressive" gets thrown around so much that i'd feel more comfortable seeing it pinned down with some substance. other than balance the budget., what's he done?
by wu ming 2005-07-26 08:20PM | 0 recs
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FSD F

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