PA-Sen: Santorum still in deep hole

by Chris Bowers, Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 01:31:18 PM EDT

Rasmussen simply confirms what several other polls have already told us:The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows that Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is living up to his reputation as the most vulnerable incumbent at this point in the 2006 election cycle. Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr by eleven percentage points, 52% to 41%.

Casey is viewed favorably by 49% of the state's likely voters while 27% have an unfavorable opinion. For Santorum, 44% say favorable and 43% unfavorable.

Casey earns 85% of the vote from self-identified liberal voters and 62% from moderates. Santorum currently attracts 66% of the conservative vote.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters, July 20, 2005

Santorum is losing by 11 despite holding an 11 point edge in name ID. Numbers like that have blowout written all of them. Considering all this, it is no wonder that he has pre-emptively decided to drop out of the Presidential race.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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My favorite numbers
"Casey earns 85% of the vote from self-identified liberal voters and 62% from moderates. Santorum currently attracts 66% of the conservative vote."

So much for Casey not being able to unify the liberal vote because if his pro-life stance.  Should there be even decent turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh, Casey should cruise to victory.

by jkfp2004 2005-07-25 01:50PM | 0 recs
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Cash On Hand
Santorum: $5,655,179

Casey: $1,575,551

Casey better start raising quick.  Santorum can easily make the 11 point deficit up between now and election day if he continues to outraise Casey at this pace.  I hate Santorum as much as the next guy, but this is reality.

by artvandelay 2005-07-25 02:00PM | 0 recs
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other pa poll
while I am heartened to see Casey with a double digit lead, I was concerned to see Rendell with smaller leads over his likely opponents than I expected. Lynne Swan is within 6 points and his only qualification is having played for the Steelers. Does anyone have an idea about why Rendell doesn't have higher numbers?  Is this something that may remedy itself as the campaign unfolds?
by dre2k5 2005-07-25 02:59PM | 0 recs
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Re: other pa poll
I think signing a pay-raise bill for the legislature, judicial, and the Governor has hurt Rendell.  Also I think since the gambling initiative to lower property taxes hasn't kicked in yet that is kind of hurting him.  Also Rendell increased income taxes across the board early in his term (Pennsylvania has a flat income tax system).  

On the positive side he has done some good things on environmental issues (Growing Greener) and public tranportation.

by Painter2004 2005-07-25 07:45PM | 0 recs
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Bear in mind
That was Rasmussen, which hovers in the ether between shilling and just self-justification for the right.
by jcjcjc 2005-07-25 08:21PM | 0 recs
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Please, please,don't say 'blow out" so early
Haven't you learned anything from your Dean experience when many Deanics were choosing office space in the White House?  

Brain McGory of the Boston Globe said it best, an election is like a NBA basketball game.  Only the last 5 minutes count.

These #s are of course encouraging, but it's a long time till Nov. '06...and it will be a six year hang over if Rickie wins again.

by KBowe 2005-07-25 03:49PM | 0 recs
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Guns
Santorum's biggest weakness is that he doesn't look like a guy who eats big slabs of hickory smoked bacon while loading buckshot into shotgun shells.

The PA GOPers have never really played the gun issue as far or as well as they could.  They have always been a little afraid of alienating suburban centrists.  

Rendell will be fine.  The GOPers like him, and the lefties will fall into line.

Casey will do well, but someone does need to get on his ass and teach him some public speaking.

He doesn't have to blow everyone away, but he needs to at least level peg.

For everything that Santorum sucks at, he is one hell of a public speaker when he keeps his temper under control.

The big thing the Dems need to do is take every shot they can to make Santorum as unappealing as possible to the suburban centrists.

If Casey holds up in Berks and Westmoreland counties, he wins, hands down.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/P/00/
Look at Kerry's map.

The only thing the Dems need to do is re-solidify the old steel mill counties around Pittsburgh.

Santorum is going to have to bust his ass to do any better than Bush did in PA.

If John Kerry can win PA, Casey should.

by jcjcjc 2005-07-25 08:30PM | 0 recs
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Man
santorum really blew on the Daily Show.  John Stewart threw him softball after softball and he "wiffed" every time.
by NCDem 2005-07-26 07:08AM | 0 recs
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this is the best chance for Democratic pickup
Don't screw it up Casey.
by Liberal 2005-08-08 09:12PM | 0 recs
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DSF

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by llalx 2005-08-28 06:41PM | 0 recs

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