Kaine takes a slim lead in Virginia

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Jul 24, 2005 at 06:00:25 AM EDT

Nice. The Mason-Dixon Poll out today shows the Virginia Governor's race has taken a dramatic turn (9/04 numbers in parenthesis):

Kaine (D)      38 (35)
Kilgore (R)    37 (40)
Potts (I)       9 (0)
Undecided      16 (25)

And here's more:

	       Kaine    Kilgore   Potts

Men	       36       41        10
Women	       41       33        8
White	       32       43        11
Black	       72        5        0

The poll was taken following the (untelivised) debate. I expect that Kilgore will ramp up the anti-gay rhetoric even further in the coming weeks, it's the only thing the GOP has to run on. There's a lot more on the Virginia blogs, Raising Kaine is a good start.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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Kilgore doubletalk

Check out this quote:

Kilgore press secretary Tim Murtaugh said, "This poll flies in the face of everything we have seen eight other public polls and our own internal polling -- that shows Jerry Kilgore with a clear lead in this race. . . . There is no evidence to support what this poll says. We will continue to run as if we are 10 points behind."

Um, yeah, ok. Would you want these bozos running the state next year? Me neither.

by freedc 2005-07-24 07:34AM | 0 recs

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sure seems

Like that is all they ever have to run on these days. Here in MN, Michelle Bachman is running for the 6th CD. She is the one puching for a constitutional ban on gay marrages in the state senate.

Its her only issue

Sad...

Trillin
http://www.mnleftyliberal.blogspot.com

by trillin 2005-07-24 07:50AM | 0 recs

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The Debate

For those curious about the debate, here's a transcript, here's an MP3, and here are a series of amusing excerpts I've assembled [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].

by Waldo Jaquith 2005-07-24 08:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Debate

Its hard to believe such a dramatic turn of events. What caused this?

by AC4508 2005-07-24 09:15AM | 0 recs

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Not Clear

It's not clear to me what's changed. I figure there are two possibilities.

The debate this past weekend -- really the first thing of any substance to happen in this race -- got the first major attention for this race. People may have simply liked what they heard about Kaine.
The poll could be wrong.

To be fair, the previous polls that we were looking at were from SurveyUSA, which are significantly less meaningful than Mason Dixon, who did the newest poll. I look forward to future polls, so we can start building up a trend line.

-Waldo Jaquith

by Waldo Jaquith 2005-07-24 07:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Debate

The previous polls are all robo-calling polls. They have varying samples by party ID, race, etc. They've all shown Kilgore leading, but it's interesting that the first poll where Kaine leads is the first one in a while where there were actually phone interviews by a reputable firm.

The other thing that's been happening is that Kilgore has been pissing off his base while his position on Roe v. Wade has been getting a lot of play because of the Roberts nomination. Virginia is 60+% pro-choice (surprise!), so seeing Roe overturned scares a lot of moderate/independent voters, especially women. Kaine is anti-abortion but pro-choice (favors current law, would veto any attempt to "criminalize" abortion, etc). Kilgore is for outlawing abortion. Meanwhile, he's lately been refusing to answer the question of whether he would sign a law to that effect. Moderates aren't fooled, but the religious right doesn't take kindly to people who have taken their money and votes in the past, but get wishy-washy when push comes to shove.

by redsoxkangaroo 2005-07-25 10:25AM | 0 recs

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Re: technical difficulties

I couldn't get to the amusing excerpts.

by Woody 2005-07-24 11:20AM | 0 recs

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D'oh

I'm sorry, I screwed up the URLs. It should read:

For those curious about the debate, here's a transcript, here's an MP3, and here are a series of amusing excerpts I've assembled [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].

My apologies.

by Waldo Jaquith 2005-07-24 06:59PM | 0 recs

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Curious

Were people really paying attention until now? Or is this poll accurate? Or were the older polls inaccurte?

by bruh21 2005-07-24 09:51AM | 0 recs

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Doesn't make sense to me

Maybe they over sampeled the metro areas. I have seen Kaine pulling closer though in previous polls but this a seven point jump. We should continue to campaign like we are five points back.

by jkfp2004 2005-07-24 10:56AM | 0 recs

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Re: Doesn't make sense to me

Actually, they UNDERsampled NoVA. So the picture might possibly be even brighter than this given that Democrats run better in NoVA than in most of the rest of the state.

As others mentioned above, this is a different polling firm and the poll involved actual interviews with respondents.

The other factor here is Potts, who has been getting much more attention lately with common sense rejections of the far-right rhetoric of Kilgore and Krew. Potts appeals to the common-sense Republican, and the more press he can get, the worse for Kilgore. (Which is why Kilgore is working so hard to exclude him from debates.)

by Maura in CT 2005-07-25 10:38AM | 0 recs

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Potts

It not so much that Kaine has gained, as Kilgore has fallen. If I remember correctly, he got 46 in the last poll. And since lots like Potts is the only one to actually increase, hopefully this means some Kilgore voters are going for Potts. If Kaine is lucky, that trend will continue. But he should not count on being lucky, he has to stop being defensive about his views and start going after Kilgore's. From his podcast, it looks like he may be starting, but I have yet to see anything in Virginia.

by mystic liberal 2005-07-24 11:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: Potts

I think Potts is the difference in Kaine leading, in other polls he was around 5% in this one about 10%.

by Painter2004 2005-07-24 11:59AM | 0 recs