Good New Jersey Numbers Too

by Chris Bowers, Fri Jul 15, 2005 at 07:57:49 AM EDT

Rasmussen also reports some encouraging poll numbers form New Jersey:
	   7/15    6/08
Corzine      50      47
Forrester    38      40
It is good to seen Corzine back at fifty. The internals are also encouraging: Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

By way of comparison, 83% of liberal voters in the Garden State support Corzine. That's up from 73% a month ago.

Overall, Corzine is viewed favorably by 40% of New Jersey voters and unfavorably by 35%. The numbers for Forrester are 36% favorable and 29% unfavorable.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 14, 2005. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Thirty-nine percent of respondents were Democrats, 31% Republican.

The best sign is that Corzine's trial heat lead is twelve points, while his name ID lead is ten points. He also seems to be doing a better job of solidifying his base than Forrester. The trend isn't bad either.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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asdf
As a registered NJ voter and someone who's been watching politics there since I was a kid, I don't think there is a chance Forrester wins this election.  For a Republican to win the governership in NJ, either a large number of Dems have to dislike the candidate or the Repub has to appear moderate enough to strip away right-leaning Dems.  Corzine is well liked (especially since he is seen as being less corrupt than most of the NJ Dem party) and Forrester is seen as something of a nut.  So unless some drastic happens, the NJ governer race if Corzine's to lose.

Now the upcoming Senate seat is a lot more scary.  Especially if Whitman runs.  Can't begin to say how much I hate that woman, but she has a decent amount of moderate support in the state and very high name recognition.  Plus, she's been very good with the 'take back the Republican party' talking points, which will play well in the more liberal Jersey.

by crimsonc 2005-07-15 12:32PM | 0 recs
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NJ scares me
Kerry only pulling 53% and in that poll 45% of voters supporting Bush. I'm concerned about the blue status of Jersey in the long term.

But yeah, Corzine is looking a likely winner

by ben114 2005-07-15 07:02PM | 0 recs
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Re: NJ scares me
Remember that the entire McSleezy thing was going down in 2004.  Statewide perception of Democrats as corrupt was probably at an all time high.  And Bush still lost signifigantly and by quite a bit more than the polls suggested.  The only way that NJ swings more to the right is if the Dems don't kill the whole corruption thing.
by crimsonc 2005-07-16 07:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: NJ scares me
also note the generic 2008 Presidential poll in there: 51-36 for a Democratic candidate.
by johnny longtorso 2005-07-16 07:46AM | 0 recs
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Forrester's chances for victory
Forrester's chances for victory rest almost entirely on whether or not the voters of New Jersey, my state of birth, decide that tax reform is their number-one priority. Most of the polls I've seen show that New Jersey voters trust Forrester a bit more than Corzine when it comes to reforming the tax system in the state, particularly with property taxes.

If, for whatever reason, there's a significant backlash against Republican candidates in 2006, then Forrester's really got no chance. But, if it's a good year for Republicans, and there's a lot of focus on economic issues - particularly tax issues - then it's entirely possible that Forrester could win.

The corruption issue isn't sticking as well as some people, myself included, thought that it might. The main reason for this is that, while the Democrats in New Jersey are thoroughly crooked, there is also a perception that all politicians are crooked, and illegal or otherwise bad behavior is just something to be expected. Chris Christie would have been a better candidate for the Republicans if they were really serious about combating corruption.

by Tim Saler 2005-07-15 07:23PM | 0 recs

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