NJ Gov: It Is Going To Be Close

by Chris Bowers, Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 11:39:02 AM EDT

Rassmussen may be a right wing outfit, but I generally trust their results. They also have the first Corzine-Forrester poll following Tuesday's primary:Corzine attracts 47% of the vote to 40% for Forrester. Five percent (5%) of voters say they will opt for some other candidate while 8% are not sure.

Forrester may be enjoying a modest bounce following his victory in Tuesday's primary. During Election 2004, John Kerry temporarily gained a few points following each victory in a competitive primary.

Corzine is viewed favorably by 42% of New Jersey voters and unfavorably by 36%. The numbers for Forrester are 38% favorable and 28% unfavorable.

Corzine leads, but he also has a 12% higher name ID. While Forrester may be on a bounce right now, he also has slightly better favorables than Corzine. Further, since he was previously elected to statewide office, Corzine will also be facing the difficulties of the Incumbent Rule.

Why is Corzine not blowing Forrester out of the water? Primarily because New Jersey is a place in desparate need of reform Democrats:

Former Governor Jim McGreevey, who resigned last year, may be having an impact on the current race. He is viewed favorably by 32% of New Jersey voters and unfavorably by 53%. Democrats are evenly divided.

Among Democrats with an unfavorable opinion of McGreevey, just 63% will vote for Corzine. Twenty-six percent (26%) say they will vote for Forrester. Among other Democrats, Corzine leads 81% to 7%.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 8, 2005. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Thirty-nine percent of respondents were Democrats, 31% Republican.

This should be a lay-up, but it isn't. There can be little doubt that corruption, both real and preceived, in the New Jersey Democratic Party was to blame both for our backward movement there in 2004, and for Corzine's difficulties now. Unless things change, New Jersey will return to swing state status in 2008 or 2012. Fortunately, there are some signs of life in the Garden State. Forging an alliance with local DFA, labor, the Asian-American community and running on an anti-Wal-Mart platform, Jun Choi defeated the incumbent mayor of Edisonin a primary. It is the first time the machine was ever beaten in a primary. There is always hope.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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I am from Jersey

Two years ago, I ran against the Party Machine in small town in Burlington County, because of the corruption. The Machine spent $15,000 to my $500. I lost, but I got a third of the vote. You might have thought that result would have been a warming sign to the Mayor, but you would have been wrong. In the General Election the Repugs swept. You might have thought that losing in the general election would have taught the Mayor a lesson, but you would be wrong. I believe the final actions of the Mayor caused us to lose the next election too. In two short years a Township Committee that was controlled by the Democrats is now completely represented by the Repugs. I can only hope that the New Jersey Democratic Party can learn from its mistakes.

by SRconbio 2005-06-09 11:54AM | 0 recs

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That's why Pelosi should step down

I don't expect it to be any more popular of an idea now than it was here, but Demcrats need to get serious about clean government.

I didn't find it in the data base and haven't heard anything since, but one of Pelosi's staff members, who was very vocal about criticizing DeLay, took eleven vacation trips paid for by lobbyists. And yes, Pelosi is responsible for knowing how many vacations her staff is getting from lobbyists. Eleven trips? Did they ever show up for work? Were these paid vacations?

When Pelosi has cleared up why her staff is taking so many paid vacations, she can resume her post.

This is an impressive list:

MOST TRIPS

From 2000 to winter 2005, the Members taking the most privately-funded trips were:

Member of Congress # of Trips

FORD, HAROLD E JR 62
BREAUX, JOHN B 61
WATERS, MAXINE 61
JONES, STEPHANIE TUBBS 59
BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR 56

I'm just a T'd off about this list as I am about Tom DeLay. Why does having a (D) after your name make it OK to accept bribes from lobbyists? If these are legitimate business trips they need to clear the record.

There needs to be stringent oversight of all types of freebies that any Democrat, from City Council to President, is allowed to accept. There also should be 100% transparancy. If that's a problem, they can become Republicans.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-06-09 12:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: That's why Pelosi should step down

ahem. Pray tell, what were the numbers of trips taken by Republican congresscritters and senators? You seem to have left them out.

Also, do you, in the interest of consistancy of stance, also call for DeLay, Ney and some of the others to step down as well?

by T Scheisskopf 2005-06-09 12:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: That's why Pelosi should step down

I'm not leaving anybody out. I'm calling for the same standard. In fact, I'd like to see a stronger standard than the mealy mouthed standard that applies now. Do you know what the current standard is?

You are supposed to report all trips, but if you don't you can report them when you get caught not reporting your trips and there is no ethics violation.

I don't think that is acceptable for DeLay or the Democratic party. Frankly, I think the eleven paid trips by Pelosi's staff member disqualifies her from criticizing DeLay.

If setting tougher standards means Bob Wexler or Nancy Pelosi or Maxine Waters have to fall on their sword, then so be it. I don't like any politician sucking up to corporate scum bags, no matter which party they are a member of.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-06-09 02:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: That's why Pelosi should step down

Just to refresh your memory, Senator Biden is ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Unless you want to rely on BushCheney Co. and the anemic media to tell us what's going on in Iraq, Afganistan and elswhere, it helps to have someone checking things out firsthand.

by tommywonk 2005-06-09 12:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: That's why Pelosi should step down

Did Biden make 62 trips to Afghanistan and Iraq? My understanding is that these were all trips that were paid for by outside sources. Why should a lobbyist have to pay for travel that was official business.

Sorry for being as tough on Biden, Wexler and Waters as I am on DeLay.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-06-09 02:06PM | 0 recs

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Trips alone not the crime

I think if you have more than X trips you should automatically get investigated. Many trips are justified or justifiable. But I wholeheartedly agree that we (rank and file Democrats) should boot our own leaders if necessary so we have the high ground to call for DeLay's head. I suspect that what DeLay did on his trips (play golf by lobbyists who were picking up the tab) was worse than anything our guys did.

by freedc 2005-06-09 02:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Trips alone not the crime

I agree and am certain that what DeLay has done is far worse than any Democrat. Unfortunately, Democratic looseness with ethical standards will make it look like the pot is calling the kettle black.

If it was up to me, I'd hire one of Elliot Spitzer's top lawyers and give them the task of cleaning up the Democratic party. Let the chips fall where they may.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-06-09 02:50PM | 0 recs

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I know a little about this:

Corzine has been doing his homework. There are some sections of NJ that are red, because previous Dems have done such a piss-poor job of addressing the issues of those areas, as they have been largely focused on their traditional areas along Rt. 1. Corzine has been in those non-traditional areas,the red counties, done his homework and intends to run agressively in those counties, and addressing those concerns. He will be campaigning in them a lot.

One thing you can say for Corzine is that he is not, nor has he ever been, a machine politician. He jumped into the race because he was the guy who could tamp down the machinations of the machine bosses. Yes, we have them in NJ and both parties, to boot.

At the end of the day there has not been a lot slung at Corzine about his ethics. He can address the ethics issue and a lot more, credibly and believably.

He can and will beat Forrester.

by T Scheisskopf 2005-06-09 12:22PM | 0 recs

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Torch baggage

Wasn't Bob Torricelli his mentor? Or rather, isn't at least a perception of Corzine being connected to the Torch?

by freedc 2005-06-09 02:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: Torch baggage

I'm from NJ, and I don't think there's any such perception. Maybe Forrester will try to create that.

by claw 2005-06-09 07:33PM | 0 recs

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Corzine

I think Corzine can win, but he has to make clear that he is going to clean up the mess in the state. And honestly, a lot of that mess is our party's fault. In a time where we are generally looking very good compared to our opponents as far as ethics, New Jersey is about 20 years behind the times. The Reps there are crooked too, but they've been out of power for a bit, so can plausibly point at us as the problem there.

by alhill 2005-06-09 01:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Corzine

party assocation with corruption cuts both ways. Donald DiFransesco who replaced as interim governor whitman when she went to the EPA was forced out of running against mcgreevy for ethics reasons. also, 4 gop lawmakers in monmouth county were the target of fbi sting late last year for corruption charges.

corzine has an advantage over forrester in that he has a deeper platform. so far forrester has not put forth any ideas on homeland security, health care, education, or proposed any ideas for growthin the state.

it may be a tough fight, but corzine should win.

by dre2k5 2005-06-09 05:09PM | 0 recs

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Irresponsible headline

"It's going to be close" is not the logical conclusion of a poll taken this early, on Day 1 of the general election. Chris is a smart guy, but he should know better. The text of the post is more measured, but the headline is misleading.

by freedc 2005-06-09 02:13PM | 0 recs

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Agree

I'm from New Jersey, and I'm not worried. I'll take a 7 point win anyday.

by Paleo 2005-06-09 04:36PM | 0 recs

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New Jersey is scaring me

Kerry only carrying NJ 53-46%, when Gore carried it 56-40% (Nader dropped from 3.0% to 0.5%, so its even worse than it looks). I know NJ Dems have had a tough couple years but PLEASE, that's horrible.

Oh and Freedc:

Corzine having only a 7 point lead is horrible, his name ID,etc. plus NJ's blue status mean he should be at least polling at 50%. Its safe to say its ok to be worried about this race,

by ben114 2005-06-09 04:20PM | 0 recs

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Don't be scared

Kerry won by 7 points. That's what Corzine will probably win by. Which is a comfortable win. That's three times the margin Bush won last year. And Corzine beat Bob Franks in 2000 by only 3 points even with Gore's margin.

by Paleo 2005-06-09 04:35PM | 0 recs

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Its the McGreevey effect

His term was troubled from the get-go. The Dems took a hit on that. But give NJ some credit - despite McGreevey's ethical shortcomings, Corzine still has a 7 point lead.

The associations are already starting: Forrester will say Corzine is Former Govs. Florio and McGreevey all wrapped up in one. And Corzine will talk about the Bush-Forrester agenda.

I was hoping Schundler would've won the primary. I think Corzine would have cleaned his clock. Forrester is considered a moderate, so I believe he has a shot in a state where Christine Whitman and Tom Kean were popular moderate GOP governors.

I'd still keep my money on Corzine, but I don't think he'll run away with it.

by claw 2005-06-09 07:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Its the McGreevey effect

mcgreevey was sleazy

by turnerbroadcasting 2005-06-10 02:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: Its the McGreevey effect

I agree

by claw 2005-06-10 08:58AM | 0 recs

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I'm sure that 9/11

gave Gee-Dub a big boost in New Jersey.

by catastrophile 2005-06-10 05:58PM | 0 recs

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Corzine better have a significant poll lead

At least 4 points on election eve. Otherwise, he is toast.

This will probably be scoffed at, or worse. It is as legit as bizarre. Corzine's facial hair is a monumental disadvantage in a statewide race. It will cost him 3-4 points minimum. He could save milions of dollars with the purchase and utilization of a 5 cent Bic razor. There is absolutely zero chance Corzine will match his final poll number. I wrote that elsewhere before his 2000 senate race and it applies in the governors race as well.

Women do not prefer facial hair on a man, perhaps subconsciously, and will not vote for a candidate who features it, as least not in typical number. Jimmy The Greek Snyder understood that in 1948 and it was the key rationale behind his huge bet on Truman over Dewey. The theory still holds up in statewide races or higher. Beside the 2000 New Jersey senate race, the theory was also perfect in 2002. Every major candidate with facial hair lost and did not come close to his poll number. I made a large wager against Tom Strickland in Colorado due to that theory. It also held up in the Texas senate race (Ron Kirk), Wyoming gov race (big upset) and one other governors race, Ithink in Kansas.

by jagakid 2005-06-09 11:19PM | 0 recs

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Interesting theory

Makes sense, too. Stupid, but quite possibly true.

by Geotpf 2005-06-10 09:32AM | 0 recs