Looking through Bush's state by state approval rating, as provided by Survey USA and already diaired about by jdeeth, gave me an idea. Using the famous Ten Regions of US Politics analysis provided by CommonWealth, I wanted to see if there were regional trends in Bush's approval rating. Here is a map of the regions:

What I found was that not only were Bush's approval ratings higher in "red" states than in "blue" states, but that Bush's approval rating is actually dropping faster in blue regions where it was already very low (Upper Coasts, Great Lakes), and it was actually rising in strongly pro-Republican regions (Appalchia, the Farm Belt, Southern Comfort) where it was already decent. In other words, the current downward trend in Bush's approval rating is further widening the gap between the red and the blue. This supports Jerome's earlier finding that Bush's approval drop is entirely among self-identifying independents and Democrats.

The full analysis is in the extended entry. I have little doubt that the true legacy of Bush's presidency will be a country far mroe divided than it has been in decades.

Northeast Corridor
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
CT    37     58      -21	   -10
DE    38     57      -19	   -1
MD    41     57      -16	   +3
NJ    38     58      -20	   +2
NY    33     62      -29	   -4
PA    42     53      -11	   +2

Bush is in a deep hole in these states, but his approval rating appears static here.

Upper Coasts
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
CA    37     58      -21	   -6
CT    37     58      -21	   -10
ME    39     57      -18	   -2
MA    39     58      -19	   +7
NH    43     53      -10	   -1
NY    33     62      -29	   -4
OR    43     54      -11	   +2
RI    33     63      -30	   -3
VT    32     65      -33	   -1
WA    41     57      -16	   -6

With the odd exception of Mass., Bush seems to be actually dropping further in a region where he is already despised. It is not necessarily a good thing that we are gaining in an already deep blue area of the country. In 2004, the Upper Coasts passed the Northeast Corridor as the most Democratic rgion in the country. Our solid base appears to becoming even more solid.

Great Lakes
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
IL    37     58      -21	   -4
MI    38     59      -21	   -3
NY    33     62      -29	   -4
OH    40     57      -17	   +3
PA    42     53      -11	   +2
WI    40     57      -17	   -5

While this region is solid Dem, its states are important swingers that tend to only slightly favor Democrats. However, right now it has clearly turned very hard against Bush. Outside of Pennsylvania, Bush's approval rating borders on the toxic in this part of the country. As we will see in Appalachia, Bush's gains in Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably not coming from the Grat Lakes region of these states.

El Norte
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AZ    46     49      -3 	   +4
CA    37     58      -21	   -6
CO    45     52      -7 	   +1
FL    46     50      -4 	   +8
HI    43     51      -8 	   -1
NV    38     57      -19	   -2
NM    45     50      -5 	   -1
TX    50     47      +3 	   -6

Although Texas is a nice surprise, outside of Nevada and California, it is fair to say that Bush's approval ratings are not as low as they should be in this very important future swing region. In these states with a heavy Latino population, Bush has still managed to keep his nose above water. This is a very high growth region, and we really should be doing better here if we are to hold a long term view of national demogtraphics.

Big River
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AR    44     52      -8 	   +4
IA    44     52      -8 	   +9
IL    37     58      -21	   -4
KY    50     45      +5 	   +3
MN    43     54      -11	   -9
MO    46     52      -6 	   +3
TN    48     49      -1 	    0
WI    40     57      -17	   -5

One wonders if this could still be considered a distinct region. Bush is losing ground in states that are in other, more anti-Bush regions, while he is gaining ground in states that are in other, more pro-Bush regions. In other words, the trend in Bush's approval rating seems to be coming from regions adjancent to this region, rather than from this region itself.

Southern Lowlands
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AL    54     41      +13	   +7
DE    38     57      -19	   -1
FL    46     50      -4 	   +8
GA    48     48       0 	   -3
LA    49     47      +2 	   -3
MD    41     57      -16	   +3
MS    50     46      +4 	    0
NC    45     50      -5 	   -4
SC    48     47      +1 	   -7
VA    49     46      +3 	   +9

In this swing region, Bush looks pretty static. At the very least, it is difficult to discern a trend.

Farm Belt
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
IN    48     48       0 	   -1
IA    44     52      -8 	   +9
KS    51     45      +6 	   +2
KY    50     45      +5 	   +3
MI    38     59      -21	   -3
MN    43     54      -11	   -9
NE    60     37      +23	   +2
ND    52     43      +9 	   -1
OH    40     57      -17	   +3
SD    48     47      +1 	    0

In terms of trend, the two states that look out of place with the rest are Michigan and Minnesota. However, those states would have looked very much in place with the Great Lakes. In other words, while Bush loses ground in most of the rest of the country, in the Farm Belt he is actually inching up somehwat. Bush's follies still be appealing to rural and exurban voters. Perhaps more accurately, even as Bush screws up, the more or less unchallenged Republican Noise Machine in these areas keep Bush afloat here.

Appalachia
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AL    54     41      +13	   +7
GA    48     48       0 	   -3
LA    49     47      +2 	   -3
MD    41     57      -16	   +3
MS    50     46      +4 	    0
NC    45     50      -5 	   -4
OH    40     57      -17	   +3
PA    42     53      -11	   +2
SC    48     47      +1 	   -7
TN    48     49      -1 	    0
VA    49     46      +3 	   +9
WV    47     47       0 	   +7

In 2004, Appalachia passed Southern Comfort and Sagebrush to become the most Republican area in the country. Here the trend seems to continue. While some states, such as the Carolinas, are breaking against Bush, such a trend seem to be more in line with the moderate Southern Lowlands, of which those states are also members. Here, it appears that Bush is, like the Farm Belt, still gaining eve as he drops naitonwide. If Bush is dropping in the Upper Coasts and Great Lakes, but gaining in the Farm Belt and Appalachia, it seems entirely possible that the so called red-blue divide is actually growing even greater than it was before. I have little doubt that Bush's legacy is going to be a very, very divided nation.

Southern Comfort
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AR    44     52      -8 	   +4
AL    54     41      +13	   +7
FL    46     50      -4 	   +8
LA    49     47      +2 	   -3
MS    50     46      +4 	    0
MO    46     52      -6 	   +3
OK    49     47      +2 	   -15
TX    50     47      +3 	   -6

Outside of Oklahoma, which strikes me as a bad poll, Bush appears to be gaining here. That makes three pro-Bush regions wher Bush is gaining: the Farm Belt, Southern Comfort and Appalachia.

Sagebrush
      App    Dis    Margin    Swing from May
AK    53     43      +10	   +4
AZ    46     49      -3 	   +4
CA    37     58      -21	   -6
CO    45     52      -7 	   +1
ID    56     39      +17	   +1
ME    39     57      -18	   -2
MT    56     42      +14	   +6
NE    60     37      +23	   +2
NV    38     57      -19	   -2
NH    43     53      -10	   -1
NM    45     50      -5 	   -1
OR    43     54      -11	   +2
OK    49     47      +2 	   -15
TX    50     47      +3 	   -6
UT    63     34      +29	   +3
WA    41     57      -16	   -6
WY    58     38      +20	   -2

Bush looks static in Sagebrush outside of, once again, the Oklahoma outlier. This is the region where a reform platform will have the most potential appeal. It has been the stronghold of every major third party challenge over the last century. Perot received more than 25% of the vote here in 1992--possibly 30%. This is the Republican region where I believe Democrats have the most potential upside, and looking at Bush's staic numbers here when compared to Appalachia, Southern Comfort and the Farm Belt support that idea.