Thank god I live in ass-backward OK, where we like our Democrats to be Republican and our Republicans to be completely insane.

It makes voting so much easier when you know the outcome before the election.  And all that with minimal fraud (except for stealing money from the state, which is OK in OK!)

And you miss one of the most important and promising Democratic pick-up opportunities, in a purple state that will be a key to building an electoral majority in 2008, Nevada.

Arnold was always about how much Gray Davis sucked.  Gray Davis is a Hollywood chariacature of a politician, and that never plays well, especially when state revenues are drying up.

2. Ohio has been long overdue.  However, the GOP has a real knack for holding on to evenly split states.  

3. Texas . . . I know Perry looks bad.  But Texas is going to take a hellstorm.  Tying Perry down to the albatross of DeLay might help.

Clearly, if things continue at their current pace, the Dems are going to have some money and manpower to relocate from what they thought were going to be tough races.

For one, I don't think Santorum is going to hold up to Casey in PA.  DeWine and Taft are dog food in Ohio.  Arnold is dog food.

If the DNC and the PACs move intelligently and fairly early away from these races, they can turn the spotlight onto races such as TX, where they can raise a real stink.

Also, any trend coming out of 2006 will adversely alter 2008, just as 2002 laid the groundwork for the Dems total defeat in 2004 (read: pro-war poll-reading pussies don't win elections).

5 State Senate Seats.

Five

That is our target. Unless something dramatic happens... Spitzer will be Governor in '06. The Assembly is more than 2 to 1 democratic (though it would be good to see more progressive reform minded Democrats in the Assembly) but the State Senate is where the action is.

The Republicans have a 5 seat edge. It is critical that we capture those 4 seats and take control of state government.

We can do this.

If you have a Republican State Senator start now to raise money, organize your election district, find a quality candidate to run for the Senate. There are many, many state senate districts curently held by republicans that can be won by Democrats. The numbers are there but it will take effort, organization, quality candidates, and money.

We can do this.

As far as "looking west," we've also made some nice progress (on a state level) in Colorado and Montana, and remember just how close New Mexico and Arizona have been in the last couple elections.  We can definitely change the colors of the map, but not if we let Diebold and friends do the tally.

Ohio:  If we can't win Ohio this year, then we never will.  The environment for Democrats is a good as it has ever been and Strickland is a strong candidate.  He should win and we should win up and down the ballot.

California: I've been saying for over a year that Phil Angelides would beat Arnold.  Now I'd bet that Arnold won't even run.  This isn't a huge deal, though, as the state has always and will continue to be solid Dem - the unique circumstances of the Davis recall and Arnold's fame changed things for a few years, but that's it.

New York: Spitzer is going to runaway with this and that's great.  New York should have a Dem governor and making sure it does denies the GOP one of its best options at presenting a nationally known moderate spokesperson to the American people.

Massachusetts. If Romney runs for re-election he is going to be spanked by AG Riley.  But I bet he soon announced he is forgoing a reelction bid to focus on '08.

Texas. Perry is unpopular, which is why he is facing a primary challenge which I would not be surprised to lose.  If we had a strong challenger we could make it a race, but our bench is SO weak in Texas that we have little shot.  I like Chris Bell and wish him well, but I would be shocked if this race is close.

Florida. The accouncement that the Democratic Party owes $200,000 in back taxes shows what a dismal state we are in in Florida (and is the end of Scott Maddox's Gov. campaign).  The GOP has a deep bench - luckilly they are all running for Governor and not for Senate.  Charlie Crist will likely win their nomination and will be favored in the general over likely Dem nominee Jim Davis.  Having Harris in the Senate race is a godsend for us and the combination of her turning out the Dem base and a nationwide Democratic win would give us a chance here, but it is an uphill battle.

Georgia. We are going to win in Georgia.  Perdue is tanking and we have two very good candidates in LG Taylor and AG Cox (who will end up winning).

You missed some other states:

In Alabama Governor Riley faces a primary challenge from 10 commandments judge Roy Moore while Dem LG Baxley will beat tainted ex. Gov Siegelman in the primary.  Baxley is the favorite against either Riley or Moore.

In Arkansas, popular AG Mike Bebee will be our nominee while LG Win Rockefeller battles ex-Rep Asa Hutchinson for the GOP nod.  Bebee has a good shot here.

Bill Owens is term limited in Colorado.  If Denver mayor Hickenlooper got in the race he'd be the heavy favorite but this is looking less likely.  This means millionaire Rutt Bridges (who briefly ran for Senate last year before Salazar got in the race) is the Dem front runner while Rep. Beauprez is the GOP frontrunner.  Dems won big in Colorado in 2004 and have a chance to pick up the Governor's mansion, Beauprez' 7th district and Marilyn Musgrave's 4th district.  Colorado will be a hot spot in 2006.

In Maryland, Baltimore mayor O'Malley will likely hold off Doug Duncan for the Dem nod and then crush Gov. Ehrlich in the general.

Rep Jim Gibbons is the favorite to retain Nevada for the GOP but Senate Minority Leader Titus is a strong candidate and could upend him.

Of course, there are a couple state that Dems could lose as well:

Iowa:  Vilsack is retiring and Rep. Jim Nussle is the favorite to replace him.  Sec. State Chet Culver has a chance of keeping this in Dem hands.

Illinois: Blagojevich is wilting under scandals and trials GOP head Topenka in polls.  He may face a primary challenge which wouldn't be so bad.

Michigan: Former golden girls Granholm has seen her poll numbers drop and she will likely face self-funder DeVos.  Granholm will be favored but it no slam-dunk.

Eventually, Texas will be Democratic, with the current boom in the Hispanic population. But this is a good 10-12 years out. The Dems should not plan on Texas being in play for a long-time.

Also, even with a Dem governor, redistricting rests with the legislature, and there is even a longer time horizon for Dem control there than there is in the governor's office.

First, some of the most unpopular incumbents (Taft, Bush [if his is indeed unpopular]) are term-limited.  Unless there's overall voter revulsion against the GOP (as there may well be in Ohio), even a Republican can claim that s/he is going to the state capitol to "clean up that mess."  

Again, Ohio is different, in that nearly every Republican of any prominence seems to be implicated in Coingate.  A "throw-the-bums-out" feeling works well for us then, because there are no statewide Democrats to throw out, and none implicated in this, as far as I know.

Second, this might help, a little, with redistricting after the 2010 Census, but whomever we elect in 2006 has to win re-election in 2010. Although I'd love to see Democrats sweep the states you mention, I'd much rather see us sweep in 2010 (too), because whoever is elected Governor then gets to approve redistricting.  

And remember, winning the statehouse in Massachusetts and holding the legislature doesn't mean that much for redistricting there, since the entire House delegation is Democratic, and the state might lose a seat.

BTW, having a Democratic Governor and legislature didn't help us at all in Illinois, where our Governor chickened out on mid-decade redistricting.

But I agree that winning these races would severely hurt the Republican bench for 2008 and beyond, and we should concentrate on the Governor's races and the House, where a pick-up of 15 seats is not out of the question, even with gerrymandering.  I think that Arnold and Romney won't run in 2006, and let's remember that California and Massachusetts have very weak Republican Parties right now, so the bench is thin there.  And while I admire Chris Bell a lot, and will probably give him some money, I don't think he can win, especially against Hutchison.

Just my two cents...

That is independent Kinky Friendman.

We can all keep ignoring Kinky or realize the guy is running a campaign more progressive than Bell's and is getting wider support from people (people sick of Dems not fighting hard as Van Os has put it).  Ivans has expressed her support for him in a video and so am I.  This guy is just as if not more progressive than Bell, the biggest difference though is he can win.

I am loyal to my ideals before my party and this guy holds them best.  It is in the best interest of the party if they value their ideals to endorse Kinky instead of Bell (sorry).  I want Perry gone and I want progressive politics in Texas and this guy can do it better than our candidate.

OHIO: Strickland is the nightmare candidate for Bob Taft, but there's a line of thinking that the pool of qualified candidates for governor is too deep and the caliber of talent at Senate against DeWine is too thin. That's a dangerous bet in the sense that if Taft or a GOP govenor pulls it out thanks to the people of Cincinnati, it will be all for naught.

CALIFORNIA: Schwarzenegger is really popular because he raises money from out of state. But he might be DOA and not even run in 2006. The GOP have some local politicans who would be tough for Angelides or Westly. A couple you may have heard, Darrell Issa and Condi Rice like the speculation but never do much conclusively to say they are in. The person I have not heard from, and would be a tough candidate to beat either for Senate or Governor is Ann Veneman. The only reason she has not been more prominent IMHO is because no one in the GOP wants to discourage a telegenic figure like Arnold from staying in office.

NEW YORK: I have very high regard for Eliot Spitzer, but there are candidates out there that could derail him. Among them are Rudy Giuliani and Colin Powell...or Bill Clinton if he ran against him in the primary. It's telling though that former Mass. pol William Weld wants nothing to do with the Spitz. That makes it hard to see how anyone more prominent jumps in.

MASSACHUSETTS: Romney was caught looking ahead to '08 too often. Now Riley has a serious chance to knock his block off and there's no Harvard fellow or upstater eager to take up the GOP shield. Just remember though, Romney may be as wealthy as Jon Corzine because of his venture capital group. That's a serious amount of television ads to convince those outside of the I-495 Beltway that Riley is in fact a kitten-fetus eating Satan worshipper eager to raise taxes. (Though most of those people moved to New Hampshire already...)

TEXAS: This will be the big mystery. Kinky could eat up lots of independents and with a bruising Republican primary between Strayhorn and Rick "Goodhair" Perry...I think this our best strategy in Texas. Run a nice, clean fellow in Bell who can look "safe" compared to Friedman without alienating voters. If Strayhorn kills Perry, Bell's sterility means she can't whip him as corrupt or flashy, if Perry wins, Bell lets Friedman go on the attack.

FLORIDA: Almost impossible to call. So many names mentioned and few of them are from the dispostive I-4 Corridor. At least Jebbius is termed out, making this a fun free-for-all.

GEORGIA: The DNC hung both Max Cleland and Denise Majette out to dry recently. If national Dems get serious about having Georgia on their mind, this could be a major reversal of fortune for the GOP. However, do recall that Ralph Reed will be on ticket as a Lt. Gov candidate and make no mistake that Satan's Little Helper wants the job for himself someday. Look for the Reeps to pull out all the stops in this one, accusing whoever runs as a Democrat to being against God, against the death penalty, friends with Cynthia McKinney, etc. etc.

A lot of that can be blamed on the recession and TABOR (both which can be blamed on the Repubs)and the drought, but nonetheless Colorado has suffered with a Republican Governor. Schools are a mess, roads are a mess, as a State employee I did not get any raise for two years and then only a fraction of what others make.

Democrats took back the legislature in 2004 and I think we can take the Governorship back if we field a good candidate this time.