To no one's surprise, Jerry Kilgore has won the Republican primary for Governor in Virginia. Turnout for the primary was extremely low: Jerry W. Kilgore easily won the Republican primary for governor on Tuesday, capturing 83 percent of the vote against an opponent he never acknowledged: Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch.

Kilgore, a former attorney general whose candidacy for governor was embraced by the GOP establishment several years ago, swept every region of Virginia by lopsided margins.

The victory came on a day of Republican and Democratic primaries for state and local offices that drew dismal turnout. Although official figures were not available late Tuesday night, it appeared that fewer than 300,000 of the state's 4.4 million registered voters - less than 7 percent - cast ballots.

The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine holds a financial edge over Kilgore: Kaine reported raising $2 million in April and May, pushing his total campaign contributions to just more than $10 million. Kaine, who is lieutenant governor, said his treasury has a $5.2 million balance. Kilgore reported raising $1.5 million over the past two months, pushing his total receipts to $8.6 million. The former attorney general said his treasury has a $3.2 million balance. There is also a third candidate in the race, Republican State Senator Russell Potts, who is running as an "independent Republican": Maverick Republican Russ Potts is. In 2003, Senator Potts narrowly won renomination to his seat in the Senate of Virginia--156 votes in a primary, a primary he was able to force over other, more conservative-friendly nomination methods with the help of the Virginia Incumbent Protect Act, Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-509(B), which allows an incumbent member of the state legislature to pick his own method of renomination. There is no party registration in Virginia, and our primaries are open to all registered voters, see Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-530. Conservatives lamented Potts's renomination as the result of the interference of Democrats and independents in a Republican Party affair.

February 25, Sen. Potts announced he was running for governor as an "independent Republican," nominally retaining his party identification but rejecting "Virginia's restrictive primary process"--the same process that allowed all voters in the 27th Senatorial District to renominate him. Potts complained that Virginia law wouldn't allow a Democrat or an independent to vote for him to be the Republican nominee for governor, and vote across party lines down-ticket for the lieutenant governor, attorney general, and delegate. (Neither will the Constitution of the United States, as interpreted by the Supreme Court of the United States in California Democratic Party v. Jones, 530 U.S. 567 (2000).)

In reality, Potts was, unlike Mr. Fitch, acknowledging the inevitability of the Kilgore nomination. But the possibility of an independent third candidate (Sen. Potts must acquire 10,000 petition signatures across each of Virginia's eleven Congressional districts before June 14) has had Messrs. Kaine and Kilgore scurrying to assert that Potts hurts the other more than himself.

Potts has collected the necessary signatures, and will indeed be on the ballot in November. Whether Potts will have any impact on this race remains to be seen. He does seem to be targeting many of the same voters that both Kaine and Kilgore will also be targeting, so he could become a factor.

As a further interesting factor, Americans Coming Together might become involved with this race. However, they better decide to do so fast.

The only polls on the race that I could find come from Survey USA:

	   5/16   3/10
Kilgore      44     46
Kaine	    40	  36
Potts	    5	   6
Undecided    11     12

The trendline looks pretty good. In terms of both partisan self-identification (there is no partisan registration in Virginia), and ideological self-identification, Kilgore and Kaine hold their bases together to roughly equal degrees. However, Potts seems to be drawing most of his support from "Independents" and liberals, which is something that could definitely hurt Kaine in a state where Republicans lead in partisan self-identification, and conservatives lead in ideological self-identification. The penchant for some liberals to turn away from Democrats and embrace independent candidates, even "independent Republican" candidates, strikes me as both a childish and ineffective reaction to perceived flaws in a Democratic nominee.

This is shaping up to be a close race, and a very expensive one. As a large state that is slowly becoming a swing state that is currently governed by a Democrat with Presidential ambitions, it is also a very important campaign. Check out Tim Kaine's blog and website for information on how you can help. From what I have heard, Tim Kaine's Internet team is extremely sharp.