British Election - Open Thread

C-SPAN II is carrying BBC coverage and analysis of the election returns, starting at 5 PM eastern time (2 PM pacific, 10 PM in the UK). Coverage continues until 10 PM eastern time (7 PM pacific, 3 AM in the UK). Use this thread to leave your comments on proceedings. I have a sense their might be a number of interesting and surprising results. Even if there aren't, watching all the candidates from a particular constiuency stand on stage and have their vote totals announced - whether they are in the Labour, Conservative, Monster Raving Loony, or Freedom to Smoke Pot Party, is a sight to behold.

Update: The exit polls shows 37 Labour (down 3.3), 33 Conservative (up 1.3) , 22 Liberal Democrat (up 3.7). A sixty-six seat majority for Labour is predicted. More results as they come in.

11:31 (London time) The results so far, which admittedly are very few, look as though things might be even worse for Labour than the exit polls suggest. The overall swing against them might be 5%, which is only 1.5% off from a hung parliment. This might result in a very narrow majority, and the end of Tony Blair as Labour leader. Both the Tories and the Liberals look to make decent gains.

1:35 am: It is starting to look like a big night for the Tories. While the Liberal Demcorats are doing well in picking up Labour seats and old Labour voters, the Tories are picking up both Labour seats and Liberal Democrat seats. Also, while the Liberals are doing well in safe Labour districts, the Tories are gaining almost only in close races. The Labour majority might be less than 40. Gordon Brown might be Prime Minister very soon.

First forecast (1:52 am): Labour 357 (down 46), Tory 201 (up 36), Liberal Democrat 59 (up 8). Labour majority of 68. Perhaps not quite so bad for Labour after all. That would probably be enough for Blair to survive.

Tags: Open Threads (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Quite a slap for Blair, eh?
Good.  I hope he's tossed by tomorrow morning.
by Teaser 2005-05-05 01:10PM | 0 recs
Disappointing for Lib Dems
Exit poll predicts Lib Dems picking up only 2 seats (Assuming uniform swing)which would be a pretty disappointing result.

Even if Blair stays a 66 majority would be a serious restraint in getting some of his more unpopular reforms past his own, more rebellious, backbenchers. (Like compulsory ID cards)

All sides saying its too early to tell though.

by jdouglas 2005-05-05 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems
LD's are moving up across the entire UK, which is what they need, in the longterm. The BBC on C-Span, this is gonna show how it's done (compared with the crap we get served on MSM election night).
by Jerome Armstrong 2005-05-05 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems
See your point, obviously. Still disheartening though for now!

That said, they're talking already about some seemingly freak Lib Dem wins contrary to the polls, which just shows that things are going differently all around the country.

Do you have American correspondents doing it or has US TV somehow tapped into British coverage?

by jdouglas 2005-05-05 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems
IT's a direct feed of the BBC that's on C-span 2(cspan.org).  
by Jerome Armstrong 2005-05-05 01:58PM | 0 recs
Don't assume uniform swing
Don't assume uniform swing. As I said in the intial post, I think there could be some significant surprises, which the BBC innuendo and rumour mill seems to suggest in the coverage so far.

Ben P

by Ben P 2005-05-05 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems
You could say the Lib Dems succeeded in having a big impact and making their mark... by pulling enough leftish votes to throw a big number of Labour-held swing seats to the Tories (shades of Nader '00, maybe?). So you could call it kind of a "catastrophic success."
by Crazy Vaclav 2005-05-05 03:29PM | 0 recs
Blair should have pulled a larger margin
He's still a trooper. I wonder if anyone would like to posit where one should draw the line as to his now reduced majority affecting his status as PM
by turnerbroadcasting 2005-05-05 02:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Blair should have pulled a larger margin
They are opening with a forecasted lead of 66 on BBC for Labour, that's a barely survivable loss for Blair, gonna be a bloody night if it gets any worse for Labour.
by Jerome Armstrong 2005-05-05 02:07PM | 0 recs
Jack Straw just told the truth
It must not be illegal in Britain for politicians to tell the truth. Jack Straw just admitted that his and Blair's support for the Iraq War cost them votes.

I haven't commented on any of these diaries, because I don't know squat about British politics. Their political candor and media coverage both put America to shame.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-05-05 09:10PM | 0 recs
bbc
Who is that guy doing a terrible impression of Bush ...funny as hell.
by desmoulins 2005-05-05 03:13PM | 0 recs
the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party?
I can't believe I never heard of this organization before. I'm so moving to Great Britain.

Are they a regional party? Scottish, perhaps? Might explain why I dinnae ken what they're saying.

by catastrophile 2005-05-05 03:29PM | 0 recs
Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party?
Oh I don't know if there's a party with that name exactly - but there are parties with names like that. I think in '97, there was a "Freedom to Party" Party (which actually was running on a serious issue, to do with raves).
by Ben P 2005-05-05 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party?
There's a Monster Raving Loony Party, too.
by Covin 2005-05-05 04:43PM | 0 recs
Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party?
And of course the Silly Party....

:P

by Jeff Fecke 2005-05-05 05:38PM | 0 recs
If it drops below 57 blair will be out
The Liberal Democrats pushed Iraq
as an issue, fairly strongly, as I
recall.

Tony Blair looks like he'll stay PM
for another year plus.

by turnerbroadcasting 2005-05-05 04:33PM | 0 recs
Re: If it drops below 57 blair will be out
I really wish our congressional candidates were forced to stand together and get the election results.  Especially Tom Delay's district in 2006.
by nascardem 2005-05-05 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: If it drops below 57 blair will be out
I agree.  It's a great way to announce results.  I also like the way the ballots are just...ooh, what's the right word...oh, yes, COUNTED.  Then every candidate are all equals as they stand on stage to hear the results.  

It's a lot more exciting than watching different reporters doing mind-numbing reports from different hotel ballrooms, where the candidates will eventually show up for a celebration or a wake.

by Erin in Flagstaff 2005-05-05 06:22PM | 0 recs
They actually wait for the results!
What a novel concept.  Actually waiting for the results before you announce the results.

Do they have a law against exit polls or do they prohibit publicizing the results until after the votes have been counted?

by Gary Boatwright 2005-05-05 09:15PM | 0 recs
Re: They actually wait for the results!
News organizations are prohibited by law from doing polls the last 24 hours before an election.
by PISSED OFF AMERICAN 2005-05-06 08:51AM | 0 recs
Counting votes!
What a quaint tradition. How did they come up with that idea? Doesn't seem very efficient. Haven't they heard of black box voting in Britain?
by Gary Boatwright 2005-05-05 09:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Counting votes!
You'd think that you could take the time to count all the votes in the US, especially as the next guy doesn't take over for three months after the election! British MPs go into office the next day.
by jdouglas 2005-05-06 12:48AM | 0 recs
An early report from the Guardian
Cut Down to Size.

Summary: Labor barely holds on, but Lib Dems and Conservatives can't cut the mustard. That's as far as I'm willing to go with an analysis of something I know nothing about.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-05-05 10:29PM | 0 recs

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