Expect Republican Disunity To Become the Norm
by Chris Bowers, Tue May 24, 2005 at 11:52:20 AM EDT
"I don't know a single business group involved in the judicial nominees," said R. Bruce Josten, an executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Nada, none, zip."(...)
"The potential for high-minded policy reforms to fix entitlements and spur growth and prosperity has degenerated into a hopeless morass," Republican economist Lawrence Kudlow wrote yesterday on the National Review's Web site.(...)
But since then, it has become clear the judicial showdown could doom initiatives on taxes, legal liability protections, Social Security and other priorities. Last week, NAM spokesman Darren McKinney said not only would the group stay out of the fight, but "we hope that leveler heads prevail" before the confrontation virtually shuts down the Senate.
Mark A. Bloomfield, whose business-backed American Council for Capital Formation pushes for lower taxes on savings, investment and inheritances, said the business community is no longer the GOP's base.(...)
Since the election, Washington Republicans resemble the German military during World War I, opening new fronts before old battles are resolved, said John E. Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. and a former top GOP economist for the Senate Banking Committee and the Joint Economic Committee. One week it's Social Security, the next week it's Schiavo, then steroids, then judges, he said.
We often refer to Republicans as the Borg, but that is a terrible mischaracterization. While not as diverse as the Democratic coalition, and not visible within their voting habits, the Republican coalition does indeed have a decent amount of ideological diversity. Much of their amazing unity was forged not only through superior caucus disciplinary measures and through cooperative infrastructure, but simply by being in the at least partial opposition for seventy years. It is easier to be united in opposition than it is in governance, and this is a lesson Republicans are learning the hard way.We have all seen Democratic unity rise to never-before seen levels over the past year. John Kerry actually won a higher percentage of self-identifying Democrats than any other Democratic nominee since at least 1964. Now on Social Security we see much of the same unity. One advantage to being out of power--an advantage serves as a natural mechanism for maintaining balance between the two coalitions in any two party system--is that opposition tends to breed unity, while governing tends to breed disunity. History demonstrates this well. The largest splinter movements from the Democratic Party all came after periods of governance. In 1948, after sixteen years of Democratic dominance, southern Democrats under Thurmond and progressive Democrats under Henry Wallace both ran significant splinter campaigns. In 1968, after eight years of the Democratic trifecta, southern Democrats again splintered with George Wallace's campaign. In 2000, after eight years of Clinton, the Green Party mounting a sizable splinter campaign.
Republicans better get used to their current struggles with unity, most dramatically demonstrated last night over judges and over the past few months over Social Security. As long as they are in power, more such hurdles on their horizon. In fact, as our time in opposition continues, the "directionless" and "don't know what they stand for" labels will eventually shift toward Republicans. Seventy years of power helped make it unclear what Democrats stood for, while the Republican opposition became more unified and developed a seemingly clear agenda (or at least an elevator pitch). Just two and a half years of Democratic opposition are already helping to accomplish much of the same, just in reverse.
Tags: Republicans (all tags)
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