Gas Prices Rising; Bush Approval Soft

by Chris Bowers, Thu Apr 21, 2005 at 10:45:04 AM EDT

Bush's approval ratings are weak right now, hovering in the mid-forties. A quick inspection of Professor Pollkatz's fascinating Bush approval and gasoline price index indicates that even his current mid-forties approval is soft:

This chart was last updated on Monday. Considering the spooky relationship between gasoline prices and Bush's job approval, Bush could be heading for a major polling crater in the next two weeks that will push his numbers down to the low forties or high thirties.

I know it sounds absurd that there is nearly a direct connection between Bush's job approval and the price of gasoline, but that chart is hard to argue with. Right now, gasoline prices are higher than they have been for years, and Bush's job approval has already started a noticeable downward movement. Expect more on the horizon.

Also, this chart sparked the ultimate insanity theory in my head a few minutes ago:
  • Bush's approval is connect to the price of gasoline.

  • The price of gasoline is connected to the price of oil.

  • MyDD was the first blog ro release the early exit polls.

  • Several sources blamed a sharp decline in oil prices on November 2nd on the release of early exit polls.

  • By releasing the early exit polls, MyDD caused a brief rise in Bush's job approval, thus allowing him to win the election.
Maybe it's our fault. :-)

Tags: Demographics (all tags)

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10 Comments

Shadow_head_small
you assholes
You re-elected Bush!
by blogswarm 2005-04-21 11:07AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
hey, cool it...
please..

Nobody is an a****

Some of us are a bit naive...

But to change the subject, I've noticed an inverse relationship between Bush's approval ratings and GOP statements relating to human rights (in other countries)

Individuals often are sincere.. but ...

by ultraworld 2005-04-21 11:24AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
I was kidding
The link between Bush's poll numbers and terrorist alerts is also very telling. Speaking of which, I think we're overdue.
by blogswarm 2005-04-21 01:38PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Chris,
It's not your fault.
by betterdonkeys 2005-04-21 11:40AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Be careful Chris: this is an artefact of the plot
This is an artefact of the graph's y-axis: the gas price is on an inverted linear scale.

Much as we might like to, I'm afraid we can't make the inference you're making.

Here's why, in more detail.  The gas price graph is linear.  And it's subtracted from 200, to "invert" it.  So if we do the standard thing that traders always do with commodity prices, and plot the gas price logarithmically (ie, one step downwards on the y-axis might correspond to a price increase of 20%, rather than 20 points), then gas prices would not "droop" so much at the bottom right.

So the signal you're reading is somewhat artificial.  Every time gas goes up by 20%, it gets a steeper and steeper downward drop off to the right of this graph; meanwhile Bush's approval can never go below zero.  So we're matching apples and oranges here.

The graph looks great, and matches all our desirable fantasies... but you should read any predictive value into it, the way it's plotted.  

It's certainly true that up + down movements of the two variables are correlated.  But it's dangerous to draw any conclusions from overlaying the absolute values, given the total arbitrariness of the gas price y-axis scale.

by Winger 2005-04-21 01:18PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
What
difference do Bush's poll #'s make? Isn't he going to RAM his agenda down our throats/continue to appoint the worst people to the most important positions regardless of whether he's polling in the high 30s or low 50s?
by buckfush 2005-04-21 01:58PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: What
Bush is more and more irrelevant now.  The real issue is whether he helps or hurts GOP re-election chances in 2006.  And with Bush polling abysmally, the GOP will be less and less inclined to help him enact his agenda.

The one thing I really worry about now (on several levels, of course) is another terrorist attack, and an irrational decision on the part of the public to support Bush and the GOP as a result.  With the way Bush has been ignoring al Qaeda, it sure doesn't seem like that remote of a possibility.

by jonweasel 2005-04-21 04:43PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Gas prices and Bush approval
It is also noteworthy that the Bush approval rating has been quite steady overall for the past year.  I think somewhere around 40% approval is a threshold that nothing short of the complete collapse of the economy would penetrate.

Of course, George is doing virtually everything one could think of to make that happen.  So, who knows?

by josephmarshall 2005-04-21 04:19PM | 0 recs
Jeffhead2
Are we sure that it's not the Reverse - As Bush
goes so goes gas? So if Bushes approval goes up gas prices go down.
by Jeff Wegerson 2005-04-22 05:55AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
This is not surprising in the least.
People are docile herd animals as long as the feeding trough is well-stocked. While gas prices decline or stay low, people give the president wide berth and go about their daily lives as usual. However when their pocketbooks start to get pinched and they have to budget around unexpected additional expenses, they quickly become onery and dissatisfied with the government.
by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-04-23 02:08PM | 0 recs

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