Senate Round-up

Montana
Already doing poorly in fundraising, Burns is taking a beating in the press as well. The Billings Gazette published this harsh editorial just above an editorial by Burns himself (ha-ha). Burns is in a lot of trouble, and this will be a top tier race.

Pennsylvania
Keystone Politics reports that a third candidate has entered the Democratic primary, someone named Alan Sandals. Is this for real? Who is this guy? What is going on here? Someone help me out.

Also, a new Q-poll shows Casey with a large lead on Santorum (MoE 2.6):

	   4/18   2/16
Casey	    49	   46
Santorum    35	   41
Santorum is getting crushed despite a 48-35 job approval.

Vermont
Jeffords is retiring:

MONTPELIER, Vt. --Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords, an independent who triggered one of the most dramatic upheavals in Senate history when he quit the GOP four years ago, intends to retire at the end of his term next year, officials in his home state and Washington said Wednesday.

Jeffords will make the announcement Wednesday afternoon in Burlington, three sources close to the senator told The Associated Press on Wednesday. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

No calls to Jeffords' press secretary or staff were returned Wednesday morning.

Jeffords, 70, has been adamant in saying he will seek re-election, but there have been increasing concerns voiced about his health in recent weeks. Jeffords has suffered from a bad back and neck for years and has seemed confused in several news interviews by some of the questions.

Democratic prospects in Vermont should be quite good.

West Virginia
If what Robert Novak writes is true, than MoveOn may have been right to hold a fundraiser for Byrd immediately after the backruptcy bill vote, and I may have been wrong. Novak claims that some Republicans don't want to bother to seriously challenge Byrd:

While Republicans claim they are targeting Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd for re-election to a ninth term in West Virginia next year, GOP strategists actually regard the Senate's senior member as unbeatable and don't want to waste a serious candidate against him. The MoveOn money was probably a factor in this decision. Still, it remains to be seen if Capito runs.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

93 Comments

Vermont..

Who do we Dems have in VT that we could cultivate?

I love Bernie Sanders--he always struck me as Wellstone-esque in rhetoric and Traficant-esque in quirky appeal. But a Socialist Senator?

Hmmmm.....

by CT Lex 2005-04-20 08:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Vermont..
Bernie Sanders will declare for the Senate immeditely after Jeffords announces his retirement. There will hopefully not be a Democrat running, and whoever runs as a Republican against Sanders will get crushed.

Even in a three-way, Sanders would still likely win.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-04-20 09:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Vermont..
yeah, I dont see why we should put anyone up if Sanders runs.
by jj32 2005-04-20 10:11AM | 0 recs
Absolutely not
If we do, there's a good chance of the Republican winning a three way race with over half the voters picking somebody left of center.  We should let Sanders be in whatever office he wants (well, maybe not if he ran for president, haha).
by Geotpf 2005-04-20 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Vermont..
Wow...

Virtually every single major seat in Vermont is now up in the air and there are lots of players to choose from...

Gov., Lt. Gov, Sec. of State, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate...

This is going to be the most exciting Vermont election cycle in the 17 years since I started voting...

Jim Douglas vs. Bernie: I believe it could be too close to call right up until election day.

by Vermonter 2005-04-20 10:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Vermont..
What if Jeffords were to endorse Sanders?

Would Douglas consider running for the House seat?

by tparty 2005-04-20 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Vermont..
This is not as clear cut as it seems.  

Yes, Bernie got 68% of the vote in his last congressional race, but he was up against an unknown outsider with no support from the Republicans,  Douglas, on the other hand, got 58% against Peter Clavelle, Bernie's succesor as 7 term mayor of the largest city in the state, who had the full support of the state Democrats.  Watch out for Jim Barnett, Executive Director AND State Chair (does that happen in other states?) of the Vermont GOP,,, he cut his teeth working with Rove and learned his lessons there well.

by ohnofile 2005-04-20 06:57PM | 0 recs
Vermont & Pennsylvania
I would expect that the Democrats will not run a candidate in Vermont, but rather allow Sanders to run as an Independent without a Democratic challenger.  He should easily handle any of the statewide GOPs - including the Governor.  Sanders is an extremely well-liked politician who has had all of his dirty laundry aired over the past twenty years (Mayor of Burlington and then Congressman).

It would be magical to replace Santorum with Casey.  Casey is likely to run much stronger than the typical Dem in the non-urban portions of the state.  He has great appeal to union Catholic conservatives, a key constituency in Scranton, Williamsport, Erie and the rest of the state (ex-Philadelphia and Pittsburgh).

by Ephus 2005-04-20 08:54AM | 0 recs
Prepare to get flamed
Praise of Casey = attacks on his stance on abortion.
by Geotpf 2005-04-20 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
And gay rights. And gun control. And the war in Iraq. And the death penalty. And...

I find it amusing that people around here always piss and moan about the DLC, and then do an about face to unite behind the next faith-based pseudo-liberal who looks like he might win.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
I'm with you craverguy. I'm 100% behind Pennacchio on general principle. I hope Pennacchio runs the hardest, toughest campaign that can be run. I have absolutely no concern about this race turning dirty, unless Casey and the DLC types turn it that way.

Go Pennacchio!

by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
With the exception of the special election after Sen. Heinz died, the Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 25 years.  I disagree with Casey on each of the issues that have been mentioned (gay rights, gun control, etc.) but this is not about ideological purity, it is about getting to 51 senators.  Casey is not some Johnny-come-lately who people are hoping might have statewide appeal, he is a proven statewide winner with phenomenal name recognition.
by Ephus 2005-04-20 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
That's the sort of thinking that's killing the Democratic Party. What's the point of having fifty-one Democratic Senators if a bunch of them vote like Republicans? Who gives a shit if Harry Reid is Senate Majority Leader if none of the guys he's leading are liberals?

And by the way, about Wofford's special election victory? He ran as an ideological campaign as a pro-choice, pro-universal healthcare liberal and beat a former Governor and U.S. Attorney General who was leading him by a two-to-one margin in early polls. Being pro-life isn't a guaranteed win in Philly. If it was, Ron Klink would be a senator right now.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Yea, and Wofford lost to Rick Santorum.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
In 1994, during the Gingrich Revolution. That sort of event in an off-year election is incredibly rare, on par with the Watergate Scandal which led to the Democratic blowout in 1974.

Santorum got lucky, but he will not be so lucky again. He is all alone now, without Newt Gingrich there hold his hand and gift-wrap his entire platform for him.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
I'm going to brush aside your completely irrelevant rant there and get to the point. Santorum will get very lucky if Pennachio is nominated, it will be like Christmas came early.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
There's no call to be rude just because you can, pal. If you want to see a rant, I'll give you one, but that was not a rant.

As for Santorum feeling like Christmas has come early, that is exactly what Senator Rudy Boschwitz thought. You see, Senator Boschwitz was a three-term incumbent with an 80+% approval rating. When the state's Democratic Party nominated a short, Jewish, ultra-liberal college professor with no prior electoral experience to run against him, I'll bet the Senator began doing handstands. He wasn't doing them anymore when Paul Wellstone whipped him on Election Day.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Santorum is not Rudy Boschwitz, and the Republican Party of 2004 is not the Republican Party of 1990. In the slim chance Pennachio wins, in less than a month he will be unelectable.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
That's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The same one that says a liberal can't be president. How would we know? We haven't nominated one since 1972.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
You don't really get politics, do you?
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
OK, now I'm fucking pissed, you rude little shit. I'm trying to have a civil fucking conversation here, and you insult me twice in the same thread. What the fuck is your problem? Do you have an aversion to serious debate? Or are you just an asshole?
by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Arguing with you is like arguing evolution with a creationist. You keep making the same ridiculious points with absolutely no evidence. Your essentially a Liberal Fundamentalist.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Considering how well the other fundamentalists are doing at the moment, I'll take that as a compliment.

The Republicans have uncovered the secret to political success: nominate a guy who will charge up the right-wing base, then pitch him in a way that coaxes the voters in the center to come to him.

We need to model our strategy on theirs. Nominating Pennacchio will do that. Nominating Casey will just be repeating the same mistake we've been making over and over again for the past forty years.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Wrong! The Republican secret is running good campaigns. Just because the grassroots strategy worked for Bush in 2004, and pushed a few people into the Senate with it, does not mean it will work in every election. This Senate race for the Democrats is not about turnout, Pennachio offers absolutely nothing in the turnout realm, Ed Rendell is king there. Turnout will be completely driven by Ed Rendell, no one running for Senate will have much sway beyond Rendell. It is simple, the Republican trick has been knowing which tactic will work in which race. There is a dangerous orthodoxy among the "netroots", that because Bush won with it in 04, that it is the secret to winning every election.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Well, the fact that the Republicans keep offering ultra-conservative candidates and we keep offering centrists and they keep winning and we keep losing would seem to bear this out.

Whenever we use the Republican model (Wellstone in Minnesota, Feingold in Wisconsin, Chiles I in Florida), we win and they lose. Whenever we send in a centrist to chase after some fictional middle ground, we get our asses handed to us.

It's time to start figuring out what we can learn from the Republicans and turn it against the bastards.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
I can't take this anymore, I'm done, you just aren't rational and you have no idea what you are talking about.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Ah, yes. I must be a complete raving lunatic.

Why? Because I disagree with you and i have examples to back me up.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
First of all, Harry Reid would likely fail the litmus test that you are suggesting for Senate candidates.  We need to have a party that is dedicated to a simple idea - preserving the American dream for the American public.  Casey is pro-union, would have voted against the Bankruptcy reform bill and is far more economically liberal than Nelson and the Dakota senators (all of whom I am happy to have in caucus).  I would love it if each and every Democratic senator had Mikulski's voting record, but such candidates do not have a record of success in much of the United States.

It is a crying shame that we have none of Ohio and Pennsylvania's four senators.  If we have candidates that have a proven statewide track record and they are better than the Republican they would replace (not a hard standard to meet with Santorum), we should jump on board.

by Ephus 2005-04-20 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Harry Reid is what he is because he represents Nevada, one of the reddest states in the Union. Pennsylvania isn't nearly so red, as Wofford's victory proved.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Since when is Nevada one of the reddest states? Its about as Republican as Pennsylvania is Democratic.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
I see. I guess that'd be why their state legislature, governor, and both U.S. representatives, and the other senator are all hardcore Republicans and the Democratic senator is pro-war, pro-life, anti-gun control, and generally a big social conservative?
by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Perhaps your confusing Nevada with a different state. Nevada has three members of Congress, one is a Democrat, Shelley Berkeley. Also the Nevada state House is under the control of Democrats.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Ah yes, I forgot about her. She'd be the one whose district is about the size of a pin? One man represents a congressional district that covers about two-thirds of the state, and he's certainly no Democrat.

And the Nevada State Senate is very defintely Republican.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Yes, but we have a one person one vote system, not a one acre one vote system. Berkeley represents the same number of people as the other two congressman do. And the State Assembly is very definitely Democratic.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 02:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
And it's electoral votes are very definitely red. That's one Republican governor, one Republican senator, two Republican congressmen, and a Republican state senate. Sounds pretty Republican to me.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
New York has a Republican Governor and a Republican state senate, that doesn't sound Red to me. Come on, your wrong just admit it and move on.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
How many of New York's congressmen are Republicans? How many senators? Other statewide offices? How has New York voted in every presidential election since 1992?

New York has a Republican governor (who is on his way out in a big way) and a Republican state senate. Everything else, including the presidential vote, is controlled by the Dems. In Nevada, the Democrats have a Senate seat, the state Senate, and one of the three congressional districts. The Republicans control everything else, including the presidential vote. One is pretty damned blue. The other is pretty damned red.

I'll give you a hint which is which: Las Vegas is the only blue spot in an otherwise red state.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
By the way, the polling showed that Wofford beat Thornburg largely because of Thornburg's ties to Bush.  The 1990 recession had started, health insurance was an incredibly salient issue and people were looking to send a message.  That campaign was the proving ground for Carville's message, "It's the economy, stupid" and "Don't forget about health care".  

BTW, if you care about health care, Casey is infinitely better than Santorum.

by Ephus 2005-04-20 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
And Pennacchio is better than Casey. Anyone who backs single-payer is the best on healthcare.

Why can't Pennacchio run the campaign you just described? There's something of a mini-recession in Pennsylvania (in fact, the entire Midwest), Santorum has extremely close ties to Bush, and healthcare can still be a salient issue. So why can't Pennacchio do the same? I would point out that Wofford had never won an election before then, either.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Look if Pennachio wins he will be broke, and Santorum will go on the attack and Pennachio will never recover. Its very simple.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Ah, yes. I seem to recall this race in Minnesota in which this one upstart chellenger had zero money for ads while the incumbent, who outspent him 7-1, put some some of the most vicious and hateful smears you've ever heard on the air at literally every commercial break.

Who won that one? Ah, yes: Paul Wellstone.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Well Wellstone got alot of free media attention by being creative with his creative commercial advertising.  I think in his ads he said something like "I don't have alot of money so I'll have to talk fast" and that was pretty effect in getting him more coverage.
by Painter2004 2005-04-20 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Yeah, he used this firm. They also did stuff for Ralph Nader and Jesse Ventura.

I recommended them to Pennacchio's Communications Director and he said they were already looking at them.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
  1.  Santorum is not a member of the Bush cabinet.
  2.  George W. Bush, even as he slips in the polls, does not have the same sort of personal popularity problems that his father did.  By smoke and mirrors, W. has convinced many blue collar Americans that he shares their concerns.  His father, on the other hand, was seen as aloof and removed from the concerns of average Americans.
  3.  The unemployment rate in 1990-91 was far worse than it is today.  Even when you factor in people who have given up on looking for work, things are not as dire today as they were then.
  4.  Wofford had a basically clear run to the Democratic nomination.  
  5.  I do not think that it is impossible that Santorum would lose to Pennachio, because I think that it is possible that Santorum would lose to "not him".  Our best chance to take the seat is Casey.  
  6.  How are you going to feel if the GOP gets close to 60 seats and can treat the Senate the way DeLay treats the House?  There are too many issues that are too important to working Americans (health care, OSHA, Social Security, etc) to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good.
  7.  You state that Pennsylvania is a "blue" state, but one Senator in a special election in the past 25 years does not make it so.  Pennsylvania is a battleground state, with lots of ticket splitting.  Santorum won re-election in 2000 even while Gore won the state.  
by Ephus 2005-04-20 01:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
  1. True, but he and Bush are best pals and the Democrats have the photographic evidence to prove it.

  2. At the time of Wofford's victory, Bush, Sr. was waging Desert Storm. His approval and popularity ratings hovered around 90%.

  3. True, but there is more to a recession than unemployment, and middle-class voters in the Midwest are starting to feel the squeeze.

  4. Maybe because he was already the Senator? How many people challenged Clinton in '96?

  5. Maybe so, but the better Senator would be Pennacchio.

  6. Pretty much the same way I do now. I don't think it's going to hinge on Santorum's re-election, though.

  7. I never said that Pennsylvania was a blue state. What it is, though, is a semi-urban/semi-rural manufacturing state ripe for the plucking by a liberal populist in the Feingold/Wellstone mold.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
You finally got it right in #7 - Pennsylvania is ripe for a campaign by a liberal populist.  As much as it might pain you to hear this, Casey fits the bill (except on social issues).  He is not an economic conservative, he is actually a staunch pro-labor liberal.  He can walk into taverns and picnics in central PA with a credibility that has been earned by his family over the last 35 years.  Being left on social issues might be lots of things (such as morally appropriate), but it does not qualify a person as a populist.  
by Ephus 2005-04-21 05:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Prepare to get flamed
Oh, he's pro-labor, is he? So that just makes everything okay? Pat Buchanan is a pro-labor economic populist. Shall we nominate him to run for the Senate in Virginia? I think he'd win in a landslide.
by craverguy 2005-04-21 10:37AM | 0 recs
Alan Sandals
From his website: www.forourfuture.us

"Alan Sandals is one the nation's leading attorneys and advocates for working people in the field of pensions and medical benefits."

Other than that, never heard of him.

by TheLagerLad 2005-04-20 08:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Alan Sandals
For what it is worth:

Seems like a guy who has done a lot of good.

My dad is very connected to the public interest law community, and knows him in passing.  Says he thinks he is a decent guy.  The disability case he references is pretty well known.  And, that he worked at the Public Interest Law Center of Philadelphia is a pretty good testimonial.  

And, apparently, his Temple is known as a pretty liberal one.

I can't tell if this is serious.  But, what I will say is that he may, POTENTIALLY, be able to tap into a lot more liberal do-gooder money of Philly than Pennacchio has so far, given that he went to Haverford and Penn Law, has his own small firm, etc, etc.

by DanielUA 2005-04-20 10:12AM | 0 recs
Maryland
The Baltimore Sun found that the state's Republican Lt. Gov. Micahel Steel is in a statistical tie with Kweisi Mfume (D).  Both men are African American.  The white democratic congressman, Ben Cardin, who has not yet announced beats Steele by 4 points.

The Republican strategists are saying Steele must go for it, that the numbers are too good to pass up. The only person to announce is Mfume.

In the general election for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Michael Steele the Republican or Kweisi Mfume?
Steele 41%
Mfume 43%
Undecided/Not sure 15%

In the general election for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Michael Steele or Ben Cardin?
Steele 37%
Cardin 41%
Undecided/Not sure 21%

In next year's Democratic primray election for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ben Cardin, Kweisi Mfume or Chris Van Hollen?
Cardin 26%
Mfume 32%
Van Hollen 16%
Undecided/Not sure 24%

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bal-te.md.senate18apr18,1,240443.story

by aiko 2005-04-20 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Maryland
The only reason it's close is name recognition. Mfume was never a Senator, only a Congressman, so many people don't know him. With more name recognition, he'll beet Steele by a better margin.
by raginillinoian 2005-04-20 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Maryland
I hope that you are right.  I think that if Steele left Ehrlich it would leave him more vulnerable then he is already.  The Sun's poll found O'Malley running ahead of the Gov.
by aiko 2005-04-20 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Maryland
also, Marylanders know who Steele is, but they don't know much, if anything, about him. his negatives will quickly shoot up after a year of campaigning.
by johnny longtorso 2005-04-20 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Maryland
Maybe.  I think Steele is the one Republican who would give the Dems in MD a run for thier money. We will see what happens.

I am for Mfume all the way.

by aiko 2005-04-20 05:53PM | 0 recs
What about Pennacchio?
How can people dismiss him as a contender if there are no polls as to how he would do against Santorum? For all we know, he could be doing just as well against Santorum as Casey, but we'll never know, because they refuse to poll him against Santorum.

Did Paul Wellstone have this problem in 1990?

by craverguy 2005-04-20 09:33AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
I think the reason he isn't being put in polls, is because, other than the blogging community, he is relatvly unknown.  I would like see a poll of Pennacchio vs. Santorum, but I highly doubt if Pennacchio would even register in the high 30s.
by jkfp2004 2005-04-20 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
That's the thing: I see pictures on Pennacchio's site of him campaigning like a man possessed. Rallies, speeches, MeetUps, just plain walking down the street and shaking hands with people.

And after all that, people still don't know who he is?

by craverguy 2005-04-20 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Um yea. No one knows who he is, he's never held office and it takes a hell of a lot more than campaign hard to get known. And the fact is I doubt he would even be in the 20s verse Santorum, after winning the Democratic Primary in 2000 Ron Klink was polling in the mid 30s.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 09:44AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
That's okay. Wellstone was polling in the 20's just after getting his party's nomination in 1990. For those of you keeping score, that's less than the base Democratic vote in Minnesota.

He finished out the campaign beating the incumbent by 51-49. Things have a way of changing between the primary and the general election.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
I don't know where you got that, but the only polling numbers I could find on the race have Wellstone in the 30s before the primary. And lets be clear Pennachio is no Wellstone.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
I find that hard to believe, since Wellstone's name recognition outside the Carleton campus was basically nil.

Of course, we really can't say whether Pennacchio will be in the 20s, the 30s, or the 40s, because he's not included in any polls. For all we know, he could be polling less than three points behind Santorum, who seems to be getting less popular by the day.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Take that up with the DFL not me, they were the ones who commissioned the poll.

And anyone who thinks Pennachio is outside of the 20s is nuts.

by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Considering how devastatingly unpopular Santorum is with Democrats, I think Pennacchio will break into the mid-thirties just by a virtue of being Not Rick Santorum. The extra ten points that Casey has is name recognition, which never got anybody elected by itself.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
No one has ever won on name recognition alone???? Is this your first week involved in politics?

Second, did you read the poll, Santorum is not devestatingly unpopular among Democrats, 34% approve and only 49% disapprove.

by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Actually the first post convention poll done for Wellstone (I helped supervise one of the phone banks) placed his name recognition at 27%.  That was mid-June, 1990.  

I would disagree that at this point only Carleton community members knew who he was -- Wellstone's secret was a network built up over 20 years of organizing in every labor and progressive group in the state, and the first stage of the post convention campaing depended on working from that base to expand support.  

Minnesota has a September Primary -- and in 1990 the Pro-Life Democrats ran Jim Nickles against Paul in the Primary, and while we didn't appreciate it at the time, fighting that primary was a great warm-up for the General in November.  In that Primary, Wellstone got about 65% of the vote which positioned him well to take on the maon opponent, Rudy Boschwitz.  

One lesson of the Wellstone 1990 campaign clearly is that you can discount big money -- but hou have to substitute for it tight organization of networks that can be vastly expanded.  That 27% who had heard of him in June, 1990, were people who knew him through DFL politics, through environmental groups, welfare groups, Labor, Farmer's organizations, and many others -- and these people had a personal connection, and many were willing to personally recruit.  He was not someone known through TV or any other virtual medium.  You get lots of potential voters if it is the guy in the coffee break room remebering that he's been on a picket line with Paul -- or at a meeting, and thinks he is a great guy.  And yes, you organize your campaign to ask people to do that -- to get out and vouch in public for the candidate.  But you can't manufacture this kind of campaign -- you have to have the networks in a relationship with the candidate before you even begin.  

Paul also won because Boschwitz made major league mistakes that year.  He though having 11 million in the bank allowed him to ignore that "upstart" professor.  He stayed in DC and did not come home to campaign.  Voters saw through it.  The second mistake, the one that put Paul over the top was the Jewish Letter in which he told a couple thousand members of the Minnesota Jewish Comminity that Paul was a bad Jew, because his wife was a Baptist.  When that became public a few days before the election, it didn't sit all that well with Minnesota Lutherans and Catholics who make up about 64% of the state population.  The ethnic and religious dimensions of that Boschwitz error are unbelievable.  

by Sara 2005-04-20 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
So how many times was Wellstone told he had no chance to beat Boschwitz?
by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
They were still telling hin he could not win after he won the Senate Seat.  

The DLC expected him to go down big time, so they scheduled a big event for the Friday after the 1990 Election day expecting to rub in the salt.  Of course it turned into an extension of the Victory Rally when Wellstone showed up, and changed the DLC agenda.  I've never seen National Level DLC pundit types more disgusted as they were that day at the St. Paul Hotel.  

by Sara 2005-04-21 09:14AM | 0 recs
Wellstone was no Wellstone
At least he wasn't the Wellstone we all recall fondly, until he blocked the bankruptcy bill with his one man filibuster. Let's not pretend that Wellstone was a shining jewel from day one. He started off his Senate career with a very big let down when he made an anti-war statement at the Vietnam wall.

It's a little early to be writing off Pennacchio.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Funny, Wellstone had already run two statewide races before his 1990 bid.

Want to know how hard name recognition is?  As of October 28, 2004, Joe Hoeffel had 46% name rec, said that same Q-pac poll.

by Adam B 2005-04-20 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Funny, Wellstone actually only ran one statewide race before running for the Senate, in which he was stomped upon in a most third-party candidate-like manner.

I guess past results really aren't an indicator of the future.

by craverguy 2005-04-20 11:04AM | 0 recs
Wrong again...
I appreciate those who understand the trials a previously unknown history professor starting a grassroots based movement has in today's political climate.  

If you read a newspaper, you know who Chuck is in PA.  Although, I would like to see a poll too.  Santorum is vulnerable, obviously.  It would have been interesting.  Here's a quick three from the big names.

April 4, 2005 - Associated Press

"Abortion stance could haunt Casey in Senate bid"

Despite Rendell's attempts to clean house, at least one candidate who favors abortion rights has vowed to compete against Casey in the primary - Charles F. "Chuck" Pennacchio, 45, a history professor at The University of the Arts in Philadelphia. [...]
A spokesman said Pennacchio definitely will raise the subject of abortion in the primary campaign.  "It's an issue that voters in the Democratic primary are concerned about," said the spokesman, Tim Tagaris, citing Senate Democrats' efforts to block judicial nominees who oppose abortion.

March 30, 2005 - The Philadelphia Inquirer

"Chuck Pennacchio plans to make big use of the Internet in his campaign for Senate against Robert P. Casey Jr."

Pennacchio remains an unquestioned underdog. But his creative use of the Internet gives him a megaphone that could create headaches for Casey.
Aiming for something larger than party nuisance, Pennacchio contends he is in the race to unseat incumbent Republican Rick Santorum, and there's nothing Democratic leaders can do to bump him aside, as they did with former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer and former U.S. Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel.

"They can't touch me," said Pennacchio, 45, a Plumsteadville, Bucks County, resident and history program director at Philadelphia's University of the Arts. "They have nothing I want. I want a rebirth of the Democratic Party as a whole. I am not looking for patronage, a job, a career."

April 18, 2005 - The Philadelphia Inquirer

"Casey walks line between views on abortion and party support"

"To win the nomination, Casey must first get by Chuck Pennacchio, a University of the Arts professor who supports abortion rights."

by Tim Tagaris 2005-04-20 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Wrong again...
It takes more than 3 times in the newspaper to be known.
by upstatenydem 2005-04-20 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
I don't live in PA currently but I will toss my $0.02 in on the Pennacchio/Casey discussion:

If you really support Pennacchio I can't believe that you want them to run a poll about him vs. Santorum right now.  He would poll so low it would not be funny.   Add to that the fact that another candidate (who is also a current statewide elected official) is polling ahead of Santorum and it would make it even more difficult to gin up support.

The remarkable disparity between Santorum's (relatively) strong favorability rating and his trailing Casey suggests to me that there are people who agree with Santorum on some issues but favor Casey.  Who could these people be?  I suspect they are mainly catholic voters who support Santorum on so-called "life" issues but prefer Casey because in addition to those issues Casey is better to them on economic issues.

I understand the desire to compare Pennacchio to Wellstone but there are some pretty big differences.  According to his bio Wellstone had previously run for state wide office in Minnesota and had been active in organizing.  I am unaware of any prior runs for statewide office by Pennacchio and from reading his bio I do not see a whole lot of grass roots involvement in PA.  

Even if those considerations can be over come (and I think given the fragmentation of PA vs. the relative homogeneity of MN, there is an argument that they are even stronger in PA) I think the big difference between the PA that Pennacchio faces and the MN that Wellstone faced is the fact that Pennacchio would need to take down two giants.  The only thing Wellstone's bio says is that he defeated "a popular incumbent, Rudy Boschwitz".  I confess I do not remember Sen. Boschwitz but I doubt that he brought to that fight in 1990 what Santorum will undoubtedly bring to the fight in 2006.  And that is only after Pennacchio beats Casey.

Finally, it may be the case that Casey will falter against Santorum in the general because he does not hold the right views on "choice" issues and therefore will not have sufficient support in the SE PA region.  I hope that is not the case.  Which pro-life senator would you rather have as Majority Leader of the Senate in 2008: Santorum or Reid?

I am not saying Pennacchio (or anyone else for that matter) should be cleared out for Casey but I sure hope some perspective can be maintained and that nothing is done to damage the ultimate nominee's chances against Santorum.

by comotion 2005-04-20 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
The only person who can hurt Casey is Casey.
by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
I generally agree with you but it is a year out and people are calling Casey a faith-based pseudo-liberal.  What is next "Santorum-lite"?
by comotion 2005-04-20 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Santorum lite?
If the shoe fits. Do you think calling Casey "Santorum-lite" is hitting below the belt?

And a follow up: Would it hurt him overall or help him overall in the general election to have been pegged as "Santorum-lite"?

I would be absolutely shocked if Pennacchio had not already been accused of being "far left" or "ultra-liberal" or whatever. If it hasn't happened yet, it's only because his name recognition is low enough that the Casey campaign doesn't want to improve it.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Santorum lite?
Would it hurt him overall or help him overall in the general election to have been pegged as "Santorum-lite"?

Excellent question.  I think the answer depends on who you are directing the communication to.  I suspect the only group that Pennachio (or other candidate) would aim such a communication at during the primary would be "liberals".  Then you have to ask if primary voters are told there is no difference between Santorum and Casey, how could (assuming Casey were to win) dems turn around and say vote for Casey over Santorum.  There may be many (liberal) Dems who don't vote if they believe that there is no difference between the two.

Of course, I am assuming that we would all prefer Casey to Santorum, but reading some posts here I realize that may not be a valid assumption.

by comotion 2005-04-20 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Santorum lite?
You may have a point about some of us preferring Santorum to Casey. I'd have to think about that one myself. I don't know that much about Casey, but Lieberman has pretty much soured me on any conservative Democrat. I think Lieberman is worse for the Democratic party than Santorum.

Now that I think about it, I'd also prefer Santorum to Biden or Feinstein. At the California Convention I was trying to talk Rep. Barbara Lee's booth workers into getting Barbara Lee to run against Feinstein in the primary.

I'm not alone. Feinstein has pissed off a lot of California Democrats. There's a rumor she doesn't care about her constituents because she's not running for another term anyway, but then she also has a $3 million war chest. If I was in Feinstein's district, I'd have to look long and hard at a Republican challenger before I made up my mind.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 08:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Santorum lite?
The problem with Casey being in the Senate is that he will likely do the same things on social issues that Santorum would. The difference is that Santorum's actions are polarizing and can be used against Republicans in general, but Casey's would make the most horrible wingnuttery "okay," because it had bipartisan support.
by craverguy 2005-04-20 08:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Santorum lite?
"The problem with Casey being in the Senate is that he will likely do the same things on social issues that Santorum would."

If by this you mean he would vote the same way, I suspect in many instances you are correct.  But if Casey was there instead of Santorum there would be procedural things that could be achieved to advance issues that you believe in.  For example, if Casey was there he would be a vote against "nuclear option".  Do you think that Republicans (other than the wingnuttiest of them) would prefer that Specter had lost the election to Hoeffel?  Realizing, of course, that there are a far greater number who wish he would have lost the primary.

by comotion 2005-04-21 03:40AM | 0 recs
You are in Feinstein's district, aren't you?
Unless San Diego was ceded to Mexico and I didn't hear about it . . .

(We are talking about the Senator, right?)

Medea Benjamin (Global Exchange, Code Pink) ran against Feinstein as a Green in 2000. In '04 she was firmly ABB.

She was arrested for infiltrating the DNC and RNC conventions (not to mention the famous Seattle WTO Ministerial, oh-so-long-ago), and was dragged out of the gallery at a Congressional hearing for talking over Rumsfeld's BS before the Iraq clobberation (as seen on the Daily Show).

I don't know what her chances would be in the general -- depends who the Reeps put up, I guess -- but I'd love to see her in a primary against DiFi.

by catastrophile 2005-04-21 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Who was Rudy Boschwitz?

Well he came to Minnesota from NYC about 1960.  He was the founder and owner of Plywood Minnesota which provided the materials to do over your basement as a rec room -- and for years he did his own TV ads showing off his plywood and carpets in his trademark red plaid shirt. He used the family Golden Retriever in his ads. He plastered the state once with billboards demanding a law to "stop bullfighting in Minnesota" -- it was part ad for Plywood, and part political campaign. He also was the sponsor of the first run movies on TV on Saturday night -- for which he also did the Plaid Shirt advertising.  He became the chair of the Republican Party in about 1974, and ran for the Senate in 1978.  

Boschwitz served two terms.  Recently GWBush appointed him as delegate to the UN Human Rights Commission.  He is one of the heavyweights in the Neo-con group in DC, and while in the Senate he was called the "Rabbi of the Senate".  He was very close to Lieberman, and still is.  He is also the "brains" behind Norm Coleman.  

by Sara 2005-04-20 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: What about Pennacchio?
Thank you for the information.  Like I said, I could not remember who he was.  He was certainly no light weight.
by comotion 2005-04-20 05:59PM | 0 recs
Vermont is NOT a lock
Folks,

Please do not assume Vermont is a lock. It is not. Bernie Sanders is a heck of a candidate for Senator and I'm sure is the easy early front runner but Vermont is very winnable for Republicans. This is not a shoo-in.

The same goes for the Congressional seat that Bernie vacates should he run for Senate as expected.

Do not let the Republicans sneak in here and win one or both of these simply by assuming, incorrectly, that Vermont is a lock for Democrats. It is not.

by Andrew C White 2005-04-20 10:25AM | 0 recs
If what Robert Novak writes is true...
That's a pretty big if.
by ct03 2005-04-20 10:26AM | 0 recs
Minnesota
Don't forget to include Minnesota in your roundup, particularly since it's an open seat.  There are two strong challengers to Mark Kennedy -- child advocate Patty Wetterling and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar.  Wetterling came within a few percentage points of beating Kennedy in the most conservative congressional district in the state.  The state as a whole is more liberal and she has very high name recognition and positives.  Klobuchar is also well known and has outraised Kennedy.  I wish the two weren't running against each other.  Minnesota hasn't done well electing women, and these two strong Democratic women shouldn't be running against each other.
by sparkyfry 2005-04-20 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Minnesota
Thanks for bringing this up.  I guess it's not being talked about because it's already a Democratic seat, but it is also an open seat, and I think it's worth addressing.

You're right on the money in terms of your analysis.  I agree with you that I'm not keen on these two women having to face each other.  Isn't Pawlenty up for re-election in 2006?  Can't we encourage one of them to run for Governor against him?  

by mamamarta 2005-04-20 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Minnesota
The Minnesota DFL nomination and endorsement comes through a caucus-convention system which puts a premium on organization.  The Precinct caucus will be in early March, and then over a series of district and county conventions in the next weeks, the state delegates are selected with the State Convention in late May.  

Amy has said she will honor the Convention endorsement and not run in a primary -- but there is the potential of another candidate, Mike Ciresi running -- and he may not honor the convention endorsement and force a primary.  (Ciresi is partner in the law firm headed by Sam Kaplan who was a major Wellstone supporter).  Patty Wetterling has not yet said what she would do if she didn't get the convention endorsement.  

Mike Hatch -- currently Attorney General is probably running for Governor -- and at one point before Mark Dayton decided not to run, Amy was looking at the AG race.  One of the members of Jesse Ventura's administration has announced to run for 6th District House Seate (Mark Kennedy's) as a DFLer.  Word is Jesse is going to support this, and in the 6th, that's good strategy as it is a Ventura stronghold, and this will keep many otherwise Republican votes out of their fold.  

by Sara 2005-04-20 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Minnesota
Actually, Wetterling is also abiding by the endorsement.  (It's referred to in this article.)
by sparkyfry 2005-04-21 08:59AM | 0 recs
Concerning Sandals
Something I wrote over at allspinzone might help you guys out.  I met him yesterday, and even have a copy of his speech if anyone is interested.  Mr. Sandals emailed me today to say he'll be trying to get to Drinking Liberally here in Philly during the next few weeks.  He's worthwhile taking a look at.  

http://www.allspinzone.com/blog/index.php?itemid=53

by SpinDentist 2005-04-20 11:15AM | 0 recs
If anybody knows
I've been trying to find out if Kerry ran the USA today ad that he hit the netroots ATM up for a couple of weeks ago. I googled USA Today, but the ad could have run over fourteen days ago. It seems to me that the ad was supposed to run sometime between the 5th and the 10th.

I also googled Kerry's Senate website and all I found were press releases on his promise to filibuster the ANWR bill.

Does anybody know if Kerry ran an ad in USA Today?

by Gary Boatwright 2005-04-20 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: If anybody knows
I've got the text of the email he sent out announcing the ad. The email is dated April 4th and says "Paid for by Friends of John Kerry".

Last week, thanks to you, Republicans in Congress heard first hand how Americans will not stand by quietly and let their voices be silenced. Tomorrow morning, we will take the next step, when a vitally important johnkerry.com ad appears in USA Today. I will send a copy to every one of my Republican colleagues in the Senate. When I do, I want to tell them that the number of people standing behind the ad's powerful message now stands at over 200,000. Help us get there.

See the ad - and count yourself among those personally supporting its message.

Tens of thousands of you have already called your Republican Senators opposing GOP leaders' efforts to invoke the so-called "nuclear option" on the confirmation of federal judges. We are acting in response to a disturbing pattern in which a handful of Republican leaders seek the ability to do whatever they want, whenever they want, without regard to principle.

We have to act because America can't afford to go where they're trying to take us.

The Republican drive to silence your voice in Washington is in high gear. House Leader Tom DeLay has led a no-holds-barred drive to silence all opposing voices in the Congress. He also engineered a highly partisan effort to force the redrawing of congressional districts in Texas - funded by heavy-handed tactics that led to the indictment of three close DeLay associates. And last week, DeLay issued an ominous threat that federal judges (appointed by both Democrats and Republicans) who dared to defy his wishes in the Terry Schiavo case will have to "answer for their behavior."

Making President Bush's judicial nominations immune to a Senate filibuster is the next step in the GOP's out-of-control grab for power. If Senator Frist, the Senate Majority Leader, can convince enough Republican Senators to go along, the nomination and confirmation of judges will become a tightly-controlled, one-party affair.

We're calling on Republican Senators to persuade their party's leaders not to pursue this reckless course.

If you haven't done so already, please contact your Republican Senator's office. Politely let him or her know that, as a constituent, you are deeply opposed to Senator Frist's "nuclear option" plan. Then take another step. Add your name to the list of those personally supporting our call for an end to the wide-ranging Republican assault on constitutional principles.

Thanks for helping with this vital and time-sensitive effort.

Sincerely,

John Kerry

P.S. When I send our USA Today ad to my Republican colleagues tomorrow morning, I want to tell them that its message has been personally backed by over 200,000 people. You can help us reach that goal. Please sign now - and, after you do, please forward this e-mail to your friends, neighbors, and family.

by Curt Matlock 2005-04-20 09:33PM | 0 recs
Sandals
Agree with DanielUA's assessment of Sandals. He's got a good populist record as a defender of employee pensions and benefits. Especially in western PA, companies like USAIR, big steel, the coal mine operators and the like have been notorious for trying to cut or reduce the pensions and benefits of their retired employees.

Sandals will hurt Pennacchio more than Casey, IMHO, since Sandals has experience in dealing with law and government and Pennacchio has none. I'm for Casey, but if I wasn't, I'd go for Sandals over Pennacchio.

by phillydem 2005-04-21 01:46AM | 0 recs

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