Iowa 1st CD: Life vs Living

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Mar 30, 2005 at 03:43:39 PM EST

The 1st CD in Iowa is going to be a major battleground in '06 for an open house seat, as the Republican incumbent Nussle runs for Governor. The DesMoinesRegister has a rundown of the candidates and the race, Political storm brews in District 1:...And then there's the 1st District, an overwhelmingly rural arc of 12 eastern Iowa counties anchored by three of the state's largest cities - Davenport, Dubuque and Waterloo. The 1st District is closely split, and the way it tilts next year could signal whether a national pendulum that's been swinging rightward in recent elections is about to head back toward the center.

With three media markets in the district, voters can expect to be besieged by television ads as well as big-name political visitors making early rounds in advance of the 2008 presidential caucuses. Registered Democrats in the district account for 31 percent of its roughly 388,000 voters, with Republicans at about 27 percent. But registered voters affiliated with neither party make up 42 percent of the district and underscore its independent streak.

...For the Republicans, state Rep. Bill Dix of Shell Rock and Bettendorf businessman Mike Whalen plan to run, and others in the GOP are rumored to be considering it. For the Democrats, Waterloo lawyer Bruce Braley and Dubuque economic development director Rick Dickinson are expected to run. State Rep. Cindy Winckler of Davenport is giving it thought, as is Davenport real estate executive Bill Gluba, who challenged Nussle last year.

And the issue? At least from the Des Moines reporting, is abortion. And how do Democrats win? By going anti-abortion:Although Dubuque's Catholic heritage is a key factor, another reason behind what political observers in both parties agree is higher-than-average opposition to abortion rights in the district could be its disproportionate growth in church membership.

From 1990 to 2000, church membership grew by 3.8 percent in the 12 counties of the 1st District, more than in any other Iowa district, according to a report by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies. In more than one Statehouse race within the district last year, Democrats who oppose abortion rights beat Republicans who agreed with them on the issue.

Sen. Julie Hosch, a Cascade Republican, lost to Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth in a district that includes Jones and Dubuque counties and part of Delaware County. Likewise, Brian Schoenjahn, an Arlington Democrat who opposes abortion rights, won an open seat in a district held by Republicans for 30 years. Schoenjahn beat Arlington Republican Ron Longmuir, who also opposes abortion rights.

I don't agree with the conclusion that a Dem has to be anti-choice to win here, quite the opposite. John Kerry won with 52.5 percent in the CD, and the Democratic candidate Bill Gluba ran a great race, holding the incumbent Nussle to 55 percent. If abortion is the only "life" issue that Republicans run on, they leave a heck of alot of other "living" issues on the table for Democrats.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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As a native...

I grew up in Dubuque, and spent most of my life there. My parents and brother still live in the area.

While it's very true that Dubuque is heavily Catholic, I think a more important issue for the area will be jobs.

Dubuque, Waterloo and Davenport are heavily blue collar. Manufacturing jobs have been, historically, mainstays of all three, especially Dubuque.

The Dubuque area also leans Democratic (Kerry won the county by a sizeable margin), which tells me that pro-life and/or anti-gay issues are not the dominant things to consider when running for office in the area.

by jonweasel 2005-03-30 04:05PM | 0 recs

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Iowa 1

It's going to be one of the most interesting races in the country. I think the above comment is right about jobs, I imagine that an economic populist message plays here, and I think a pro-life Dem would have an easier time at it, though the current field of Republicans is too weak to hold the seat in a democraticly performing district. The last time the district voted for a Republican president was 1984. Part of the reason that I think the district is perceived as only winnable by a pro-life Democrat is because it produces so many pro-life Democrats who have a deep appeal. I'm not sure a Republican playing a pro-life message to divide would play too well in the district. It would turn off people. The field isn't completely filled on either side, but once it does it should be a Dem pickup (80% sure of that) and I don't think Gluba is it.

by Kombiz Lavasany 2005-03-30 04:13PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: Iowa 1

Laddy, or anyone, whats your take on the Democratic field? Gluba seems pretty strong, fieldwise anyway.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-03-30 04:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Iowa 1

Jerome, The field is still working itself out on the Democratic side. Gluba is definitely not seen as the coming nominee. There is still at least one more candidate in the race, if not two, who are going to be strong. The field is going to shake itself out on the Democratic side. After the summer, we'll have a better clue to who the strongest candidate(s) may end up being. The current Republicans are strong institutional candidates, but I think would be weak in a general election in a Democratic performing district, more on that after they release their first quarter numbers. They don't have the power that Nussle has had in traditional Democratic areas, ie. Dubuque, which has been the key to his success. The question for the Republican canidates in the primary is how much they're going to bring in. Bill Dix, will be able to raise the money and Whalen can always fall back on self financing. That means there is a chance that the federal caps could be blown early on, which means a long drawn out Republican primary. Even without it, both candidates are dry, and a Moderately strong Dem will have a good shot at the seat. Still the district cannot be easily painted as the Register attempts and it is a Democratically performing district, which will reject a hard right candidate. The current Republican's will have a hard time coming out of their far right positions.

by Kombiz Lavasany 2005-03-30 07:51PM | 0 recs

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Nussle's never been strong

I don't think Nussle has EVER broke 60 percent in three different configurations of the district. Gluba dodn't run a particularly strong race and would not be the strongest candidate in an open seat race.

by jdeeth 2005-03-30 04:51PM | 0 recs

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It depends... think 'muted' progressive...

I don't live in the district but spend 50 nights a year there on business... Dbq, W/CF and 'rural' like Decorah...

My take is Nussle won because the region took such a huge hit in the 'stagflation' era... especially the union support the local Dems learned to live off almost completely... Deere Waterloo lost something like 10,000 jobs over that period... Nussle came in with all the Reaganites...

I do not see a Democrat winning on 'jobs' alone... at least not in the traditional blue collar delivers the vote sort of way... those days are gone.

But I also don't think another neo-con like Nussle can expect the pulpit to deliver a win for them...

I think which ever candidate delivers a 'new vision' within a traditional framework will be able to carry this district... the same old is wearing pretty thin in places like this...

The candidate will have to be somewhat conservative morally but not too dogmatic - folks are increasingly sick of dogma and extremism. So I don't think the Dem would have to be 'anti-abortion' to win... same with being 'anti-gay rights'... not necessary. Just sensitive to conservative midwestern values and respect peoples privacy... everyone's privacy.

And I feel being TOO conservative on these issues will potentially hurt a candidate in the general election... might win him the GOP primary but scare the masses in the general.

Nussle was a master at working the subtleties of these issues... don't look for his replacement to necessarily be as skilled...

They will have to be progressive on things like the environment but pragmatic enough to not scare ALL the farmers. That and support farm subsidies... though this is a part of Iowa where corporate farms haven't completely wiped out family farms... so a 'progressive farm strategy' might work too... but understand, Iowa isn't California...

Education and quality of life... finding ways to keep kids in Iowa after they graduate (and not heading off to the coasts or Chicago & Minneapolis) will be key too.

They will need to be fiscal conservatives but not like the GOP... borrow and spend won't carry much more water than tax and spend...

So i would not advise the Dems there to drink the Kool Aid... better to craft a careful thought out message... 'progressive populist' with a hint of 'libertarian' on personal privacy issues... and I think they can go pretty far...

by dryfly 2005-03-30 05:13PM | 0 recs

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Nice

Really good analysis.

I'll have to ask my parents what they think people in the area are looking for. My brother's an editor at the Dubuque Telegraph Herald, and he might also have some insight.

by jonweasel 2005-03-30 05:33PM | 0 recs

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IA-1

Iowa 1 is our prime pickup opportunity for the House next year. A close second is Pennsylvania 6.

by raginillinoian 2005-03-30 06:45PM | 0 recs

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Gunshy

Even though Iowa flipped from "blue" to "red" in the election, and the congressional boundaries were redrawn...the Democratic Presidential candidate captured the district in 2000 AND 2004.

The Dems really just need a strong, likeable candidate who can talk tough on issues that play well there. It would not appear that CD-1 lacks receptiveness to so called "liberal" ideas. I think it's clear the Dems need to hammer the GOP on trade and jobs but also energy policy.

Can you imagine a debate where the Republican candidate foolishly plays the Iraq card only to have the Dem candidate say,

"I'm sorry but why are we in Iraq for oil if we have more ethanol than we know what to do with here in Iowa?"

Agriculture-Trade/Jobs-Energy...Remind them the Republicans are the party of China, Iraq, and Texas.

by risenmessiah 2005-03-31 12:00AM | 0 recs

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I started my own blog today

I wonder who'll be the first to post on it..
http://turnerbroadcasting.blogspot.com/

Again, I'm an indie. I want to see a fair
fight between the parties and to be able
to pick and choose. So this blog
is chartered that way -

hmm... ok if I link to mydd?

Republicans the party of China?
What happened to clinton's los alamos employees..

>:)

by turnerbroadcasting 2005-03-31 04:33AM | 0 recs

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The thing about Nussle

is he never played the social issue that hard. I was shocked to hear he went back for the Schiavo vote. That is clearly aimed at his gov bid and securing the hard right vote.

I am from Delaware County originally and still have family there. The only two counties I think where the wing-nut life position will swing the election is Delaware and Bremer.

I believe 9 of 12 counties went for Kerry.

Nussle is a smarming asshole who regularly outspent oppents 5-1 and up and craked 55% exactly once.

by demiowa 2005-03-31 05:55AM | 0 recs

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Definition please...

Define "sensibly pro-life "... 'cause in my almost 50 years I haven't met one.

by dryfly 2005-03-31 08:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Definition please...

"sensibly pro-life "

Probably someone that believes its not do-able to make abortion illegal because it will lead to "back alley abortions." Believes late-term abortions should be strongly restricted and there should be things like parental notification. Believes that more money should be put into anti-poverty measures for pregnant women, giving more information about adoption and making the adoption system better, and providing more help to the parents of children, also educating more about safe-sex. All of those things would be smart mesures to reduce the number of abortions.

by Painter2004 2005-03-31 03:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Definition please...

Harry Reid seems sensibly pro-life. Dennis Kucinich before he flip-flopped seemed sensibly pro-life.

by Anthony de Jesus 2005-03-31 06:13PM | 0 recs

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as a voter in this CD...

Jdeeth is 100% correct. 40% of the district would never vote for Nussle under any circumstances. Gluba ran a poor campaign and nobody wants him to run again.

It now sounds that State Rep. Cindy Winckler (Davenport) may be putting together a campaign team. She is somebody that I'm sure EMILY's List will take an interest in, and if she demonstrates fundraising competence, they could raise a ton of money for her in a Dem. primary.

It also sounds like the trial lawyers and at least some party establishment are supporting Attorney Bruce Braley (Waterloo). He should also be well funded for a primary.

Rick Dickinson (Dubuque) is also running, and Gluba says he's running again.

This could really be a Friends and Neighbors type of Dem. primary as each of the 3 main cities has its own candidate and the largest city actually has 2.

On the Republican side, I hear that Republican insiders don't think State Rep. Bill Dix (Shell Rock) can raise the money, doubt his inteligence, and recognize that he is way too conservative for a district where Kerry won 3/4th of the counties.

Brian Kennedy (Davenport) is former state party chair and insider. Mike Whalen (Davenport) is an outsider who should be able to bring money to the table. Brian Hook (Davenport) is currently working in the West Wing directly for Karl Rove.

Choice won't be an issue in the Dem. primary.

To the degree that it will be an issue in the general, it will be under the radar like usual. Republicans turn people off in Iowa when they run tv ads attacking Dems on abortion. However, it can be an effective issue if used in direct mail and paid phone calls.

by Nate Willems 2005-03-31 03:12PM | 0 recs

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The unslanted, real scoop

Here is the deal with Iowa 1...I live in the district and am active with ALL of the Democratic races here. There are 3 "attractive" candidates, but they are attractive to different people for different reasons. Braley is the youngest, slick, trial lawyer. His big detraction is he is absolutely unknown outside of Waterloo, and barely known there outside of tight Democratic circles. He is getting bucketloads of trial lawyer money from outside of the district, and the Republicans are licking there chops for him as we speak. Also, he is staunchly Pro-Choice, as he was handpicked to run by Rahm Emanuel, who obviously wants to have the seat go Pro-Choice...again, more fuel for the Repubs in this conservative district.

Dickinson. He is an attractive candidate because he can raise the Chamber of Commerce-type money. He has a littl experience as he was elected to the State assembly and as mayor of tiny Sebula. Here is the hook...he is anti-labor! He had a 70% approval rating from the Iowa AFL-CIO...that is terrible. He also has a long running spat over siding with the anti-union Eagle window company in Dubuque, and the organized labor-heavy Dubuque residents haven't forgotten this. He DOES not have support in Dubuque, and labor is currently working against him. He is really perceived as a Democrat in Republican clothing.

Bill Gluba. ALthough he comes off as brash and can be "in your face", and his fundraising has been quite pathetic of late, he is the guy. He has the credentials. He was, according to the older folks, a historical figure in state politics of Iowa during the 70's during his tenure in the Iowa Assembly and in the Senate. He passed the first collective bargaining bill in Iowa, so labor loves him. He also passed the Iowa Housing Authority, which today is a billion dollar bonding bill that puts, annually, 25000 low-income families in homes. If you read the Iowa code, his name and Tom Higgins name co-sponsor every major, Democratic backed piece of legislation in the 1970's. He also did pretty good against Nussle, although grossly underfunded--he got 44%, and the most votes a challenger ever put up against Jimbo. Gluba's knock is that he is Pro-life. And although that may not sit well with the single-issue, abortion voters, it fits well with the district. The Repubs love to get the Right-to-Lifers going in this district, and it is not uncommon to get the "aborted fetus" postcards in the mail come a week before the election...they beat us to death on that one here.

Repubs. This one is simple. Whalen has it in the bag, there is no argueing this. Kennedy and Dix are appealing, but Whalen is a MILLIONAIRE...he is throwing his own money in, and will have 500,000-million to spend in the primary for TV. But trust me, we want Whalen. If you think Nussle is a cocky, wife-philandering asshole, Whalen makes him look like a choirboy--he is a total asshole. Plus, he headed up and co-funded this Texas based thinktank to privatize social security. This will be the issue in the general, and I know for a fact Gluba plans to beat him to death over that and the war.
This is going to be an exciting election, but Gluba is the guy. He has a huge base in Davenport (scott county), he is popular in Dubuque (Catholic, pro-labor, pro-life), and he is a hit in Clinton County...he isn't that well-known in Waterloo, but the dems will unite after the primary. Go Gluba, or give it back to the Repubs!

by IADem 2005-12-11 10:21PM | 0 recs

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Iowa 1st

Regarding the Iowa 1st, the Republicans seem to be in a much stronger position than the Democrats. Looking at the 2004 numbers, the district will be won or lost in Scott County. The bulk of the voters live in the area and Scott County is always mercurial when it comes to picking candidates. Waterloo and Dubuque are solidly Democratic but Scott County can go either way on down ticket races. There are potentially three and definitely two declarated candidates from Scott County and more importantly candidates that live in the heavily Republican Bettendorf. Whalen probably stands the best chance of any of them simply because people love his businesses and he is local entrepenuer who made it big. Never underestimate the value of name recognition and being a good corporate citizen.

This is a district that should have never been held by Nussle. Though the early money seems to be favoring Braley, I don't know that he is the strongest candidate. Correctly or not, he will be tarred as a trial lawyer and anyone who has seen him in person wonders about his motivation. I have heard some even describe him as "creepy". Gluba's stances on the issues fight the heavily Catholic district, but a fire breathing Democrat may not be able to bring it home in 2006. Even Dickinson is a weak candidate. For an open seat, the Democrats running are amazingly weak.

Of course if Cindy Winkler gets in the race it all changes. Cindy is an attractive candidate for a variety of reasons. She conencts with labor, is smart, presents well, has a grasp of the issues, knows who she is and what she would want to do in Congress and I am sure she would be able to raise buckets of money. Best of all Cindy is a Scott County resident. A Cindy Winkler v. Mike Whalen fight would make for an interesting election. Imagine the Alpha Male vs. the Soccer Mom. I'll take the soccer mom.

by dportsymphonyguy 2005-04-11 11:00AM | 0 recs

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1st District Breakdown...

This is sure to be a good race - as everyone has pointed out.

I don't think Gluba is the guy to get the job done. Bill's a nice enough guy, but if he should have run a much better race last time out. Had he, there probably wouldn't be a primary in '06.
Besides, he's run 3 times already and a 4th time seems to pushing it a bit.

Braley is an unknown trial lawyer who so far has only raised money from other trial lawyers - most of it outside the 1st District. Let's face it, he'll become the poster boy for tort reform and the Repubs and Rove & Co. will have a field day with him. He'll become the John Edwards of Iowa. I don't see him offering a whole lot on the issues. His reasons for running seem a bit on the light side...He really seems to be just another lawyer wanting to be in congress. Is that what we need? Plus, he's untested and has never been elected to anything before. He's a rookie and we can't afford rookie mistakes if Dems are going to win this seat for the first time in a generation.

Cyndi Winkler? I heard that she's a former Republican...another Ann Hutchinson from Scott? At least she's been elected to office - unlike Braley. I'm afraid being financed overwhelmingly by Emily's list will open her to all sorts of Republican attacks. I don't see the appeal.

Being from Dubuque, I have to say that I am impressed with Rick Dickinson. As the head of Greater Dubuque he's got a great record of bringing companies and jobs to the region - he's well respected and has been elected as a mayor, county supervisor and state representative. He's fiscally conservative and progressive on social issues. If he raises the money, I think his profile and record will outshine the other D's looking to run. Plus his Democratic base of Dubuque and Jackson counties will be hard to counter if the turnout there is good in the primary. He's by far the strongest candidate in the General Election.

This is a Democratic district, but it's not wildly liberal. The voters are still blue collar or descend from blue collar backgrounds...they want and need jobs and economic opportunities. Nussle never should have won the seat in the first place, but won on a fluke and a last weekend scandal that allowed him to win by less than 1,500 votes. Once elected, the incumbent protection program allowed him to hold-on to the seat. It doesn't matter how ugly he was able to win, the fact is he did.

The Republicans so far seem to be a bit pretty far to the right - all are in favor of privatizing social security...and actually brag about it. Guess they don't understand the demographics of eastern Iowa and all the senior who live and vote there.

These guys will all have buckets of cash and the support of the White House + Nussle will have to pull big numbers in eastern Iowa to win the Governorship. It'll be in the best interest of Democrats to choose a nominee who can appeal to a broad base of voters.

Gluba, Winkler's and Braley's appeal is a bit narrow. I argue that Dickinson's record of creating jobs and improving the economy in Dubuque along with the fact that he's been elected to several offices make him the strongest candidate versus the Republicans in the fall of '06. I'd rather put up a candidate with a record of success versus an unknown and untested candidate like Braley et al.

by dbcooper 2005-05-18 05:26PM | 0 recs