Social Security Battle Not Just About Social Security
by Chris Bowers, Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 05:36:54 AM EST
If he is right, Bush's plan will be dead on arrival in the Senate, where a supermajority of 60 votes will be needed to overcome a filibuster by opponents. Republicans have 55 seats.(...)
Reid said he had private commitments from all 44 Senate Democrats that they would not support diverting payroll tax revenues into private accounts, the key facet of Bush's plan. The Democratic staff on the Senate Finance Committee has come to the same conclusion, based on polling Democratic members and their staffs.
Now, there were only four remaining members of the Senate Fainthearted Faction anyway, including two with "One Foot Out the Door." That already meant we had at least forty votes, with Jeffords unaccounted for. Further, there are two "Loud and Proud" Republican members of the Conscience Caucus, with Chafee and Smith looking to make it two more. In the best-case scenario, that puts us at 49 votes to save Social Security. Apparently, right now the worst case scenario might be 46 votes--five more than we needed!Could it be? Two huge victories in one day? Not so fast. With $100M and the Republican Noise Machine behind it, Bush's plan might still have legs. Still, even if it does not, there is more going on in the Social Security debate than Social Security anyway.
Even aside from these twin political goals--winning younger voters and painting Democrats as anti-reform, Republicans could even use the Social Security debate to secure the final piece of their actual tax reform goal:
A couple of weeks ago Jon Chait wrote a long and informative article in the New Republic about tax reform. Here's how he describes a Republican strategy called "Five Easy Pieces":The Five Easy Pieces strategy postulates that the long-time conservative goal of a sweepingly radical tax overhaul, such as replacing the income tax with a flat tax or a national sales tax, runs too much political risk. Instead, [longtime tax lobbyist Ernest] Christian has argued, conservatives can achieve the same goal by doing five things: cutting marginal tax rates, eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends, allowing more generous treatment of business investment, doing away with the estate tax, and establishing tax-free personal savings accounts. The three major Bush tax cuts to date have achieved the first four pieces, partially or completely. I wonder if the final phase of this strategy is behind Bush's Social Security posturing? Maybe the plan looks something like this:
- 1. Bush proposes private accounts for Social Security.
- 2. As expected, Democrats go to the mattresses in opposition. However, in an effort to demonstrate reasonableness they all agree -- almost in passing -- that of course they have nothing against encouraging savings, but that it should be done in addition to Social Security, not in place of it.
- 3. After pretending to give it a good try, Bush counts noses, realizes he can't win, and reluctantly agrees to settle for tax-free private accounts on top of Social Security, just like the ones Dems say they have nothing against. Of course, this will be the Republican version of tax-free private accounts -- big, unrestricted ones that mostly help the well off -- but by now the Dems can hardly oppose a compromise like this, can they?
- 4. Part 5 of Five Easy Pieces is now enshrined in law.
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