Personally, I think that people are underestimating DeWine. He is very well funded. Has no serious primary opposition, is playing on his home turf, and has no problem playing dirty. Democrats need to be in serious training for this one. As of now I don't think that either Brown or Hackett could be said to be ready to go into the ring.

In the end Democrats will likely hold on to Minnesota and New Jersey.- I will move MD to Dem Favored Column once Primary is finished.

Republican Held US Senate Seats
Solid Republican
1)Indiana-(Lugar-R)
2)Maine-(Snowe-R)
3)Mississippi-(Lott-R)potential retire- Move to Republican Favored- Top Tier Dem Candidates(Moore-D and Taylor-D)- Leans Republican.
4)Nevada-(Ensign-R)- depends on what type of candidate Carter is -
5)Texas-(Hutchison-R)
6)Utah-(Hatch-R)
7)Virginia-(Allen-R)- if top Tier Democratic Challenger appears- LT General Claudia Kennedy,James Webb,or AG nominee Creigh Deeds. US Rep Rick Boucher. I'll move Virginia to a Leans Republicans Collum
8)Wyoming-(Thomas-R)
Republican Favored
1)Arizona-(Kyl-R)
Leans Republican
1)Montana-(Burns-R)
2)Tennesee-(OPEN)-(Hilleary-R)
Tossup
1)Missouri
2)Ohio
3)Rhode Island
Leans Democratic
1)Pennsylvania-(Casey-D)

Democrats are favored to pickup PA,OH,and MO.(+3)
while they have a tough race defending MN and NJ.

Democrats have an excellent chance of winning Republican held Seats in RI,MT,TN,AZ, and either (MS-Open,NV,or VA)

1) The outcome of the Ohio referendums stripping power from the Sec of State vs. the pre election Columbus dispatch poll

2) The weird, weird, machinations of Cal Sec of State Select (by Ahnold) Bruce MacPherson to certify Diebold (and let us not forget that when Arnold went to vote in the NOv. special election his Diebold machine in Brentwood said he had already voted in Pasadena...!)

3) Diebold's willingness to abandon NC when they insisted upon source code

4) Rush Holt's HR 550 to ensure the integrity of the voting process.  

Again, I'm hardly convinced by short samples like 2000 thru 2004 in terms of senate likelihood for a major transfer one direction or another. Next year figures very close to even. I'll be thrilled with a net +1 or +2, given we already took 5 seats from this block in 2000.

This cycle is completely unlike 2000, 2002, or 2004. In 2000 we took over seats in friendly states like Washington and Michigan plus an open seat with a superior candidate in Florida. In 2002 it was a rare circumstance in which we lost a pseudo incumbent in Missouri plus the awful fluke circumstance in Minnesota. Georgia was the one true bad incumbent loss. Plus we got too cocky in pursuing seats in GOP-friendly states. In 2004 the GOP gain was primarily due to block retirements in the South. Again, we were much too optimistic in expecting takeovers in Republican states.

Next year I don't see any of the dynamics of the previous years. There is only one vulnerable GOP incumbent in a partisan index favoring Democrat state, Santorum. We can dream about Ohio or Missouri but those are still red states at the core. I don't care about the supposed partisan number from 2004 in Ohio. That is phony as hell. The state is 2-3 points base Republican and only a horrendous state economy and unpopular GOP elected officials makes the slant short term in our direction. I think Hackett can win, but it will probably take a similar 2-3 point nationwide Democratic wave to yank him over the top. Brown is too liberal for that state and will lose fairly routinely, a few non threatening points behind. Talent is a young guy who debates well. I don't see him losing in that state.

Admittedly, I'm not a cheeleader type and tend to look at everything in a 50/50 scenario. We can certainly take many of those seats if we have a similar 3-4 point edge in November 2006 due to prolonged GOP implosion. But when I look at our target states in the top three tiers and 5 of the 7 are Ohio, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona and Montana, it's hardly a reach to yawn and say, yeah, sure.

Re-Elect: 45%
Somebody new: 48%
Depends on who runs: 3
Don't Know: 4