Kolbe Retires, Opening Pick Up Opportunity for Dems

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 02:39:51 PM EST

In 2004 Rep. Jim Kolbe, a moderate Republican who represents Southeastern Arizona, narrowly defeated conservative state Rep. Randy Graf in the GOP primary. If the latter name rings a bell, perhaps you saw Ed Helms' Daily Show expose on Graf's effort to allow firearms in venues that sell alcohol and you recall the state Representative's likening of the United States Constitution to a book of golf rules.

Facing the specter of another primary challenge by Graf, who has already spent close to $30,000 on the race, Kolbe has opted to retire. The AP's Paul Davenport has the story.

Rep. Jim Kolbe, a leading proponent of free trade and the only openly gay Republican in Congress, announced Wednesday that he will not seek a 12th term next year.The Phoenix Business Journal's Mike Sunnucks takes a gander at the possible candidates for the seat.

The retirement news will create a tidal wave of possible successors and Democrats will work hard to try to pick up a district which leans Republican but is politically moderate.

Former GOP state lawmaker and immigration hawk Randy Graf was already challenging Kolbe in the 2006 party primary.

Other possible Republican successors include state Senators Toni Hellon and Tim Bee, state Reps, Steve Huffman and Pete Hershberger, Pima County Supervisor Ann Day, Tucson car dealer Jim Click and Tucson Mayor Bob Walkup.

Day is the sister of retiring U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Click is a top GOP fundraiser and has strong ties to the Bush family. Huffman is popular with business groups and has been a top advocate of business tax cuts at the state Capitol.

Democratic candidates include state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, Pima County Supervisor Ramon Valadez and George Cunningham, who serves as Gov. Janet Napolitano's budget director. Giffords has been pegged by some top Democrats as the party's best chance of taking the Kolbe seat when it comes available.

Short of a Graf win in the GOP primary, the Democrats might have had a difficult time winning in Arizona's eight congressional district before Kolbe's retirement announcement even though President Bush only carried the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2004 and 49 percent in 2000. But today's news offers the Democrats a solid pick up opportunity that could put Nancy Pelosi one step closer to the Speaker's chair in the 110th Congress.

Democrats are quick to note that this is "a race we can win." The eighth district contains a portion of Tucson, a city in which Democrats forcefully gained control of power during the local elections earlier this month. What's more, with the popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano leading the ticket next fall, Dems say they should be able to win in the eighth district next year.

Tags: AZ-CD8, House 2006, Jim Kolbe, Retirements (all tags)

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I'm originally from Arizona

and must say that if the GOP nominates an anti-choice and anti-gay conservative, this seat is ours (if we run an effective campaign). Tucson has a lot of gay people (lesbians in particular), is very pro-choice, and pro-environmental.

A lot of the Republicans in Tucson are moderate (Tucson is unique in Arizona that way). Indeed, Republicans Pete Hershberger, Ann Day, and Toni Hellon are all pro-choice and for gay rights. The trick here is to hope that Graf wins the primary and faces Cunningham or Giffords. If that happens, the seat's ours. If Toni Hellon should win the primary (she's the most capable of the lot), she'd be favored to win the general. Incidentally, Hershberger and Hellon are friends, so I would expect one to defer to the other.

I know Giffords personally and she's top-notch. However, I would expect the popular Gov. Napolitano to work behind-the-scenes for Cunningham. Btw, I am also a friend of Pete Hershberger and he's a very nice, principled man who isn't afraid to stand up to the conservatives in his party. He's very progressive and it would not be a horrible thing if he were to win. He represents the area in the AZ State House and he's more progressive that at least half of the Democrats.

by jgarcia 2005-11-23 03:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm originally from Arizona

Jeff Latas
and Francine Shacter are already declared for this seat

by orin76 2005-11-23 05:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm originally from Arizona

Um, who are they? I have never heard of them.

by jgarcia 2005-11-23 06:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm originally from Arizona

These are their weblinks and bios

http://www.jefflatas.com/
Jeff Latas arrived in Arizona in 1978 to attend first Pima College and then the University of Arizona, where he graduated with a degree in Aerospace Engineering.

After a career as a fighter pilot in the United States Air Force, and after earning a Master's degree in Public Administration, Jeff chose to settle in his beloved southern Arizona for good.

A lifelong environmentalist, patriot, and Democrat, Jeff is ready to serve southeastern Arizonans as their representative in Congress

http://www.francineshacterforcongress.com/
was born and raised in Los Angeles, California. Got married, moved to San Francisco, had four children.
Husband transferred to Montgomery County Maryland in 1954. Raised children, worked in politics,
organized my precinct for Adlai Stevenson - anyone remember him? - joined with other progressive
Democrats to elect progressive Democrats in an otherwise very Republican County. In Montgomery County,
I was precinct chairman for a number of years.

Woke up one day to discover I was a single mom with four kids to raise and had to go to get a real job.
Worked on "the hill" for almost five years and then went to the Bureau of the Census. Census was great - in
1970, managed the San Francisco office for the decennial census, reconciled demands from the many
minority groups. Result: one of the only major cities in the country that did not demand a recount.

Back to Census in D.C. to manage a program in industrial statistics - first woman responsible for the
program that covered data on manufacture of all the capital formation machinery in the U.S. From there, on
to the Consumer Product Safety Commission to manage program about chronic hazards in consumer
products and wrote the first carcinogen policy adopted by a Federal agency.

Important to my contributions in federal government has been my ability to achieve consensus among
varying viewpoints without compromising principle.

After more than 30 years of government service, I retired to Arizona where I have become active in the
community, volunteering with the schools and the local Democratic party.

by orin76 2005-11-24 01:36PM | 0 recs

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Great news

This adds even more momentum to the Dems adopting a solid Western Strategy to pick up additional House seats.

All of the GOP incumbents in Colorado have credible challengers.

CO-4 Musgrave (R) v Angie Paccione

CO-5 Hefley (R) v Jay Fawcett

CO-6 Tancredo (R) v Bill Winter (just announced; no official website yet)

CO-7 Open (Beauprez is running for governor) v Peggy Lamm -or- Ed Perlmutter

by em dash 2005-11-23 03:56PM | 0 recs

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Mo Udall country

I grew up in the district. My parents still live there. They consider Morris King Udall to be one of the greatest of Democratic Party saints. He's up there with JFK and FDR in their book.

They've never voted for Jim Kolbe for one, and only one, reason. He's a republican. They can forgive almost anything else, but being a republican automatically disqualifies you from receiving their vote.

By the way, they are not fans of John McCain, either.

I love my parents!

by Michael Bersin 2005-11-23 04:43PM | 0 recs

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Pelosi majority leader...

sends a chill down my spine (in a bad way). Not because I don't want the Dems to win the House, but rather because she is currently essentially an unknown to the rest of the country, and I'd like to keep it that way. Every time she appears on TV she is staring through the camera and looks completely plastic and detached. The fact that the represents San Francisco doesn't exactly burnish our repuation as a party that is safe for moderates. I'll put it this way... does she inspire you? Does she inspire any passion whatsoever in people who read this blog and are already motivated people? We need someone who actually wins over people. Harry Reid seems to win over people because he is soft but bold, and that seems to resonate. He comes across as a wise grandfather type. Pelosi, however, is from the same planet that TH Kerry descended from, and that doesn't help. Let's put it this way... we have MANY talented people in this party, and we can do a lot better than Nancy. That said, I'm willing to revise my position if presented with solid evidence. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

by alydar 2005-11-23 05:39PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pelosi majority leader...

actually, Pelosi would most likely end up Speaker, and Steny Hoyer would move up to Majority Leader.

either way, she can't possibly be any worse than the arrogance that exudes from Hastert/DeLay/Frist. and I don't think most Americans really care about the Congressional leadership, until they get mired in a scandal. like, you know, DeLay and Frist.

by johnny longtorso 2005-11-23 05:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pelosi majority leader...

Oh, totally agreed, most people have no idea who the Majority Leader is, much less what s/he actually does. But saying that she can't be any worse than Delay/Hastert isn't much of an endorsement. I mean, don't we have people who are intelligent, inspiring, and, cuz it can't hurt, camera friendly?

by alydar 2005-11-23 05:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pelosi majority leader...

Not to mention what we would look like to our voters if we 86'd her from the Speakers job. If she was good enough to be Minority Leader then she can be Speaker next year. From my lips to Gods ear.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-11-23 05:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pelosi majority leader...

When it comes to her votes (which will probably be used to demonize her), She is voting as a representative of the people in her San Francisco constituency (which voted for John Kerry by an 85% to 14% margin).

by RBH 2005-11-23 06:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pelosi majority leader...

You appear to fear right wingnut rnc talking points.

...The fact that the represents San Francisco doesn't exactly burnish our repuation as a party that is safe for moderates...

What's the next step, you endorse a right wingnut cable television gasbag loofah lover's "fatwa" against San Francisco?

Moderates my ass. If so-called "moderates" are threatened by Nancy Pelosi and the beliefs of the voters in San Francisco (hmmm, they overwhelmingly voted for John Kerry. Do you think, given they way things have turned out, that they were probably more attuned to what was right?) you can keep them.

by Michael Bersin 2005-11-24 07:16AM | 0 recs

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Kolbe Retires, Opening Pick Up Opportunity for Dem

On the Democratic side, St. Sen. Gabrielle Giffords would be an excellent choice and wouldn't surprise me, a lifelong resident of Tucson and a longtime resident of the District, more than 20+ years. George Cunningham ran in 2000 and lost, garnering only 36% of the vote. He wasn't a good candidate. Former Pima County Dep. County Atty., Mary Judge Ryan was another bad candidate, as well as former TUSD Board Member Eva Bacal. Former Tucson Mayor Tom Volgy had his chance in 1998 but limited the amount of money he would raise and spent ($250k in coffees), and got 46%. Prior Kolbe's challenge was 1984 when he took the seat from former Dem. Congressman Jim McNulty. Pima County Supervisor Ramon Valadez is a Democrat from Dist. 2, but he lives in CD-7, Cong. Grijalva's district, although there isn't a law in Arizona about residency it is not expected for him to run.

On the Republican side, it will be a primary battle, with County Supervisor Ray Carroll, st. Sen. Keith Bee, st. Rep. Steve Huffman, Marion McClure and possibly Peter Hershberger, as well as now former Tucson Councilmember Fred Ronstadt seeking the nod in 2006.

Republican Randy Graf and Democrat Jeff Latas will be left in the "Sonoran Desert Dust" in this contest, a battle until the September 2006 primary election. Let the fun begin!

by Tucson Mark 2005-11-23 07:43PM | 0 recs