Two New NJ Polls Conflict

by Chris Bowers, Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 06:51:14 AM EST

After a wave of polls for two weeks that all showed Corzine comfortably ahead, two polls released within the last 24 hours show conflicting information on the trend of the New Jersey Governor's race.

The new Q-poll shows Corzine extending his lead to 12 (50-38) from 7 (50-43), while the new FDU poll shows his lead shrinking from 8 (47-39) to 4 (44-40).

Which one is accurate? I wonder if either is actually accurate, but the FDU poll does conlfict with recent polls more than the Q-poll.

What is clear from all of this polling is that Forrester is at 42% or lower. He has failed to break 42% for 12 consecutive polls now, which means he is in a lot of trouble. In order to win, he would basically need all of the undecideds. However, with a name ID that is now within 5 points or less of Corzine, pulling that off will be nearly impossible.

In short, Corzine, still looks good, but offering him your help in these final days wouldn't hurt.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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Polls
Quinnipiac has a longer and more reliable track record than the FDU/Public Mind poll.  But I think both are outliers.  It's probably 7-9 right now.
by Paleo 2005-11-02 06:53AM | 0 recs
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FDU
In 2004, there were a couple of truly awful polls (as you would expect, 1 in 20 should be wrong).  Some of the Zogby interactive polls were bad, and a surveyusa poll once found Bush within 3 in California.   Tennesee had some interesting polling as well.

But the award for the worst poll has to go to FDU, who in May of last year showed Bush winning by 4.  No other pollster ever found anything close to this.

Quinnipiac, btw, leaned GOP.

See the Survey USA page for a summary of 2004 polling organization results.

by fladem 2005-11-02 07:07AM | 0 recs
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FDU...
is the only one I've seen lately that has independents breaking for Forrester (35-30, as opposed to Quinnipiac's 41-45 or SUSA's 36-51). even Republican pollsters Strategic Vision has Corzine up 48-42.

I'd take this one with a grain of salt.

by johnny longtorso 2005-11-02 07:17AM | 0 recs
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Re: FDU...
FDU and Quinnipiac define "Independent" voters differently, which accounts for the massive disparity regarding independent voters.  One simply needs to look at the party ID internals to see this.
by Mr Moderate 2005-11-02 11:07AM | 0 recs

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