The Southern Undercurrent of the Republican Revolution, Part 2
by Chris Bowers, Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 01:04:13 PM EDT
Between 1974 and 2004, the party breakdown of House members from the eleven former states of the confederacy reversed -- from two-thirds Democrat to almost two-thirds Republican. As everyone who follows politics knows, this massive transformation is the key to understanding the Republican Party's capture of Congress in the 1990s.
That's a switch of about 10% of all the seats in Congress, and there are times when I think there's really nothing else worth saying about American politics.
While political strategists have been aware of the significantly southern nature of the so-called "Republican Revolution" for some time, the main narrative within the national media about said "revolution" has been that it is not confined to any single region, and that the country as a whole has become more conservative and more Republican. Of course, like most Republican fueled narratives, even a cursory analysis of this narrative shows that it is not true. In reality, the vast majority of Republican gains in the balance of power since 1990 have occurred within the south.78 non-southern seats 22 southern seats Congress D R D R 101st 40 38 15 7 109th 41 37 4 18Further, the country did not become more conservative. Rather, in keeping with the master polarization plan of the conservative movement, more conservatives became Republicans. Harris has long term data that makes this statement nearly irrefutable:
Con Mod Lib 2004 36 41 18 1989 37 42 17 1978 34 39 17 Rep Dem Ind 2004 31 34 24 1989 33 40 23 1978 22 43 30Since 1978, there has been almost no change in the breakdown of ideological self-identification in this country, while there has been an enormous change in the breakdown in partisan self-identification. The two coalitions have become ideological, and so conservatives have become Republicans. The south is by far the most conservative region in the nation, and for a long time it was the easily most Democratic region in the nation as well. It is thus no surprise that the exodus of conservatives from the Democratic Party occurred mostly in the South.
Had the south not shifted, Democrats would still control not only the Senate, as shown above, but also the House. MyDD commenter tgeraghty shows the shift in the House since 1990:
Non-South South Congress D R D R 101 185 134 75 41 102 190 128 77 39 103 181 128 77 48 104 150 159 54 71 105 152 157 54 71 106 158 151 53 72 107 160 148 52 73 108 151 151 53 78 109 153 149 49 82While Democrats still have work to do to regain their large non-southern majority in the House (work that is stifled by new Republican maps), the shift of 33-34 seats in the South since 1990 is more than double the current Republican majority in the House.
This same pattern can be found everywhere in current politics. For example, look at the shift in the parisan index for the Presidential vote since 2000:
Southern Battleground Partisan Index Shift from 2000 LA RNC +12.0 (RNC +3.8) TN RNC +11.8 (RNC +7.4) WV RNC +10.4 (RNC +3.8) NC RNC +10.0 (DNC +3.3) AR RNC +7.3 (RNC +1.3) VA RNC +5.7 (DNC +2.8) MO RNC +4.7 (RNC +0.8) FL RNC +2.6 (RNC +2.1) Non-Southern Battleground Partisan Index Shift from 2000 AZ RNC +8.0 (RNC +1.2) CO RNC +2.2 (DNC +7.7) NV RNC +0.1 (DNC +4.0) OH DNC +0.3 (DNC +3.7) NM DNC +1.7 (DNC +2.2) IA DNC +1.8 (DNC +2.0) WI DNC +2.8 (DNC +3.1) NH DNC +3.8 (DNC +5.0) PA DNC +5.0 (DNC +1.3) MI DNC +5.9 (DNC +1.3) MN DNC +5.9 (DNC +4.0) OR DNC +6.6 (DNC +6.7) ME DNC +11.5 (DNC +6.9) WA DNC +9.6 (DNC +4.5)As I wrote after the election:In six of the eight southern states that were considered battlegrounds at some point during the campaign, Republicans gained in the partisan index. One of the two where Democrats gained was North Carolina, and probably at least somewhat Edwards related. The only bright spot in the entire south is Virginia, where Democrats clearly gained.
By contrast, in thirteen out of the fourteen non-southern states that were considered battlegrounds at some point in the campaign (that is, both Bush and Kerry ran ads), Democrats gained in the partisan index. Only a 0.8 shift to the RNC in Arizona, the smallest shift in any of the fourteen states, prevented a clean sweep.
In state legislatures, the pattern holds again. In 2004, Republicans won the Georgia, Indiana and Oklahoma House, as well as the Tennessee Senate. Democrats took the Oregon, Montana and Colorado Senate, as well as forcing a tie in the Iowa Senate. Democrats also took the Colorado, North Carolina and Montana Houses, and made huge gains in the Minnesota House. Generally speaking, Democratic gains have come outside the south, while Republican gains have come almost entirely within the South.Neither the country nor the south has become more conservative. However, the south has become a lot more Republican. And that, in a nutshell, is the so-called "Republican revolution."
Tags: Demographics (all tags)
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