NJ-Gov: Poll Summary

by Chris Bowers, Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 07:04:26 AM EST

One week out, here a summary table of the most recent polls by nine different organizations:
All Likely Voters
Poll	   Date      Cor    For
Zogby	   10/27       47	   40
R2000	   10/27       51	   42
Marist	   10/26       51	   41
FDU	   10/26       47	   39
SUSA	   10/25       50	   41
Rasmu	   10/19       49	   40
Monmth	   10/19       45	   38
NYT	   10/19       46	   37
Q-Poll	   10/17       50	   43
(Sources: Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Polling Report)

Importantly, the Incumbent Rule is no longer in play, so this lead is real. Acording to Zogby, Marist and FDU, Corzine and Forrester have identical name IDs. Only Research 2000 shows a gap between the two, and even there Corzine only has a 5% higher name ID. In other words, barring a November surprise and/or being wiped out in the ground game, Corzine will win.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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6 Comments

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Another 51 Percent Poll
51 percent for Corzine from Research 2000.
by nathan 2005-10-31 07:08AM | 0 recs
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Ozymandias
Polls are ephemera. Why bother? Can you not remember the story of Ozymanidias..

A great king who embraced chimeric phantasmata - befelled by his inability ground himself.. in things that can be measured more accurately. If polling on the same day as the election with exact results to compare it to, can't change the course of history - vis a vis Iraq electoral fraud- why would, given that Cheney has tied most of America to corporate special interests - any polls count at all any more/

I am not cynical, mind you. Cynical would be Dick Cheney saying "Gitmo is an island paradise" to the american people and having them buy it.

Stupid people are no fun.

by turnerbroadcasting 2005-10-31 07:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Ozymandias
to be precise: stupid people as in the people that you put metrics on for economics. oh by the way.. consumer conf. is at an all time. the economy is booming. so much for polls..
by turnerbroadcasting 2005-10-31 07:21AM | 0 recs
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Re: Ozymandias
Dude, if you think polls are ephemera, why do you read MyDD so much? I'm not saying this harshly. It is a serious question. I mean, we have made it perfectly clear for years that we do in fact examine polls. That is one of our main areas of focus. Everyone knows that.

And that isn't going to change. Ever.

by Chris Bowers 2005-10-31 07:24AM | 0 recs
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Re: Ozymandias
"Dude, if you think polls are ephemera, why do you read MyDD so much?"

Chris, tbs is here to annoy you. That is why. Why that's nearly as satisfying as, say, learning how to knit is beyond me, but there it is.

by jkdism 2005-10-31 08:47AM | 0 recs
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Corzine needs a big poll edge
He will not match his final poll consensus. In major statewide races, men with mustaches or significant facial hair never do. It may sound bizarre but it's even more accurate and reliable. I don't remember a single failure. So when Forrester loses but "closer than the polls indicated it would be," anyone who is surprised shouldn't be.
by jagakid 2005-10-31 12:30PM | 0 recs

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