What Happens If Cheney Goes?

While I don't really expect to find an indictment of Vice President Cheney in my Fitzmas stocking, there does seem to be an awful lot of defense of Cheney coming from the White House. Using the oh-so-scientific technology of Yahoo! News Search, I put together this list of the top eight news headlines with 'Cheney' in them. (I'm giving eight rather than ten as the last two were repeats.)

White House Sidesteps Cheney Questions

White House rallies behind Cheney

Cheney looms large in latest twist of CIA leak drama

Newsview: Cheney Again at Center of Drama

White House defends Cheney

Cheney told Libby about CIA officer, lawyers report

Report: Cheney Named in CIA Leak Probe

Was Cheney Source Of CIA Leak?

The indictment letters went out today. If Cheney's going to be indicted, the White House knows it. And while it's pretty easy to chalk up all of the Cheney defense as reaction to the New York Times article, it would also make sense that if Cheney was in any sort of trouble, the White House would be in hyper-defense mode. So with all of this in mind, a friend asked me what I thought would happen if Cheney were indicted or for some other reason compelled to step down. Not only that, but what would it mean for the 2008 race?

My first thought is that whoever replaces Cheney will not be well-positioned for 2008. Sure, a potential next Vice President could be seen as the natural successor to President Bush. But is that really going to help a 2008 GOP candidate? Right now, every candidate expected to run for the GOP nomination is busy running away from Bush. Brownback on Miers, Frist on stem cells, Hagel on Iraq, McCain on torture, etc.

Rather than naming a Vice President as a way of anointing a 2008 pick, Bush is far more likely to name someone whom he either knows doesn't want the nomination or whom he doesn't want to have the nomination. The obvious pick is Condoleezza Rice. After Cheney, she's the next administration official in the line of succession. While the mainstream speculation is that she could very well run in 2008, she's indicated repeatedly that she's not interested. At least on this topic, I tend to believe her.

But if Cheney steps down, could there be another, more unorthodox pick? I can't help but think that if Cheney goes, his replacement would likely be someone who's brought in for much the same reason as Cheney himself. In 2000, the naming of Cheney as Bush's running mate was widely seen as bringing heft to the ticket. The meme was that 'grownups' would ultimately be in charge of an administration headed by someone much of the country viewed as an unserious fratboy.

The recently retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Richard Myers, might make sense. Though his 'leadership' in Iraq clearly indicates otherwise, I'd think most average Americans see him as a relatively non-political military man. I can imagine Bush and his handlers seeing Myers as a good choice "to restore honor and integrity" to the Vice Presidency.

Mind you, this is all just an exercise in speculation. Like I said up front, I can't seriously imagine Cheney being indicted. But with so much attention on the VP right now, it's worth considering. Besides, it's Fitzmas Eve. If a guy can't dream on Fitzmas Eve, when can he?

Tags: Republicans (all tags)

Comments

25 Comments

Will he leave?
I read in an article written by John Dean, that even should Cheney be indicted he would either have to resign or be impeached, otherwise he can stay. Do you really see him stepping down? As far as his successor should that happen, I won't speculate yet. At this point however, they're all the same to me.
by thinkforyourself 2005-10-25 06:12PM | 0 recs
Line of Succession?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't the "line of sucession" mean that Condi would be primed to step into the Veep slot in a crisis? She's said she has no interest in running for President, but not so for  being appointed Vice Pres.
by TerranceDC 2005-10-25 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Line of Succession?
Hastert is next in line, followed by Ted Stevens, then Condi.
by johnny longtorso 2005-10-25 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Line of Succession?
All Three of those choices nauseate me.
by yitbos96bb 2005-10-25 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Line of Succession?
You're talking about presidenital succession. If Bush goes and Cheney, Hastert, and Stevens aren't available then Rice is President. It has nothing to do with replacing a Vice President. If Cheney goes, Bush can nominate whoever he wants and they must get confirmed in congress.
by zt155 2005-10-25 09:25PM | 0 recs
I love to fantasize
I really don't think Mr. Cheney got one of the letters from the Special Council today, but it has been fun speculating on possible replacements.  I think I have figured out the logical appointment for VP:  Joe Lieberman.

First, you would be hard pressed to find anybody more conservative, or more supportive of the Bush policies.  Second, it would give the appearance of the President reaching out, trying to be a uniter, not a divider.  Third, it would open up a Senate seat for a Republican governor to fill with a Republican appointee.  Finally, there's no chance Lieberman could get the Republican nod for presidential nomination, and there's no way the Democrats would want him to be their standard bearer.  It's the perfect choice.

by wiggen 2005-10-25 07:08PM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
"First, you would be hard pressed to find anybody more conservative, or more supportive of the Bush policies."

um... try every single Republican in the Senate.

by johnny longtorso 2005-10-25 07:45PM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
Let's remember one thing. This is the president that nominated the cleaning lady for the Supreme Court. So, it's not too far fetched to think that we could wind up with a member of the White house kitchen staff or landscaping crew being appointed as the new V.P.
by mikeprim 2005-10-25 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
As long as that member of the kitchen staff or landscaping crew worships the ground bush walks on, they're qualified.
by zt155 2005-10-25 09:31PM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
Yeah Gore's former running-mate is just like Bush. Which is why I'm so glad that Gore lost in 2000 and 2.7 million people voted for Nader. Because there's really no difference between the two parties.
by zt155 2005-10-25 09:22PM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
3,000 Americans died on Sept 11, 2,000 U.S. troops have died in Iraq, 1,200 people have died from Katrina...None of this would have happened in Gore was elected. I think it's sad that you feel proud of your Nader vote.
by progressiveliberaldem 2005-10-26 02:30AM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
Um...the comment was meant to be sarcastic, I think.
by MrExcitement 2005-10-26 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: I love to fantasize
Um, it is early in the morning and all, but I'm pretty sure that was sarcasm, the point being that even Lieberman does not have a voting record that even remotely resembles a Republican's.
by taliesin 2005-10-26 07:06AM | 0 recs
I would say that McCain's ego is such that
he would never turn down stepping right into the VP position.  
by jgarcia 2005-10-25 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I would say that McCain's ego is such that
Maybe, but he was asked in 2000 and supposedly in 2004 and he turned it down twice.  I think maybe his ego is such that he wouldn't belittle himself to take the VP job...
by yitbos96bb 2005-10-25 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: I would say that McCain's ego is such that
If McCain accepted a nomination to be VP, then the Democratic Governor of Arizona would get to select his replacement. The seat would then be contested in 2006, along with the regularly scheduled race for Sen. Kyl's seat.  With 2006 shaping up to be a weak election cycle for the GOP, it seems pretty unlikely that the President would put a safe senate seat in play, unless there was no choice.  
by Mose 2005-10-26 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: I would say that McCain's ego is such that
McCain turned it down in 2000 and 2004. And he's repeatedly responded negatively to the suggestion whenever asked over the years.
by zt155 2005-10-25 09:27PM | 0 recs
VP Pick
If Bush REALLY wanted to go the same way as he did with Cheney, I can think of 1 person who would still be eligible, has a lot of Government experience and would probably be confirmed pretyt easily...

Say hello to Vice President Daddy...

At the very least, it would cement in the history books just how messed up 2001-2009 really was.

by yitbos96bb 2005-10-25 08:25PM | 0 recs
Re: VP Pick
Then they could run Poppy for President in 2008 and let the Bush's have on last ride!
by dole4pineapple 2005-10-25 09:12PM | 0 recs
And could run for re-election in 2008!
Oh, VP Poppy is a good one.  I'd love to see the Daily Show go with that idea.

On a similar whimsical matter, if he took the position would he be in the lead position for the Republican 2008 nomination?

Unless, of course, if Junior is impeached or resigns before January 2007 then Poppy could not run in 2008 (according to Amendment 22).

Now THAT would be an interesting scenario!

by sawgrass727 2005-10-25 09:21PM | 0 recs
bringing daddy in to clean up his messes?
The scary thing is that this has a non-zero probability of being the actual outcome. It sounds 100% like GWB's modus operandi.

GHWB wasn't a great president, but compared to Junior even he would be a breath of fresh air. Heck, even Nixon outpolls Bush these days. Perhaps our memories soften with age.

by drewthaler 2005-10-25 10:43PM | 0 recs
Re: VP Pick
I thought the same thing when Cheney selected himself back in 2000.  If Bush wanted a Reagan-era holdover with experience and gravitas... and especially now that we know he only appoints people in his immediate inner circle to high office... Poppy would have been perfect!
by schroeder 2005-10-26 09:32AM | 0 recs
Libby Will Take The Blame
Speculation says Cheney gave it to Libby. In turn, Libby gave it to reporters and Rove, followed by Rove giving it to reporters. If this is so, then did they conspire to do it? Probably, but Libby is to much the "good soldier" and will take the hit to protect Cheney...for the good of the party.
by blogus 2005-10-26 03:19AM | 0 recs
It sounds as if everyone is doing...
everthing, including falling on their own swords, to protect Cheney.

Regardless, he's done politically. Bob Woodward has been pushing this notion that he's being groomed for 2008.

I have not heard him say that in the last couple of weeks.

New on EWM: White House Sets Job Fair

by The Muse 2005-10-26 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: It sounds as if everyone is doing...
Everyone fell on their swords to protect Reagan during Iran-Contra, and far from being done politically, they're scheming to put four Reagan faces on Mt. Rushmore.

And I'm sure Bush will let him use the family's time honored defense: "I was out of the loop."  Or, put another way, "I'm not a criminal, I'm just incompetent!"  Worked for Bush after 9/11!

by schroeder 2005-10-26 09:30AM | 0 recs

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