New Survey USA Senator Rankings

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 25, 2005 at 01:48:40 PM EDT

Some important Senators from the poll:

	     App            Dis
Santorum      45	     58
Dayton	      44	     46
DeWine	      45	     43
Frist	      49	     45
Corzine       49	     44
BiNelson      46	     38
Burns	      52	     43
Kyl	      48	     38
Talent	      51	     40
Stabenow      50	     39
Allen	      49	     38
Cantwell      52	     37
Chafee	      56	     37
Ensign	      54	     34
Kohl	      57	     34
BeNelson      63	     29

(Sorry about the formatting IE people--I'm working on it.).

Right now, it looks like Ensign in Nevada will be a particuarly difficult nut for Jack Carter to crack. Also, if Ben Nelson loses in Nebraska with an approval rating like that, it might be time to try a 49 state strategy.

As a side note, sometimes, you gotta love the electorate. Here are the two most recent approval ratings of Congress:

Gallup Poll. Oct. 13-16, 2005. N=1,012 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?"
Approve: 29
Disapprove: 64

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Oct. 12-16, 2005. N=500 registered nationwide. MoE ± 4.4.
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?"
Approve: 29
Disapprove: 62

And yet, now we have this from Survey USA:600 adults in each of the 50 United States were interviewed 10/14/05 to 10/16/05. Respondents were asked if they Approve or Disapprove of the job being done by the two U.S. Senators from their home state.(...)

Democrat Mark Dayton of Minnesota and Republican Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania are the only two U.S. Senators with Negative Net Job Approval ratings in October.

Dayton is Minus 2; he is ranked 99th.
Santorum is Minus 3; he is ranked 100th.

Republican Wayne Allard of Colorado and Democrat Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey have Net Zero Job Approval. All other 96 U.S. Senators are in positive territory. The average Net Job Approval for all 100 senators is Plus 23. People always claim that politicians have no guts. Well, maybe they should look in the mirror. They disapprove of "Congress" as a group / abstract concept, but are unwilling to actually say they disapprove of any given member of Congress. Really, it is kind of pathetic (and yeah, go ahead and get mad at me for being disdainful of the electorate for a moment).

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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it reminds me of how...

people are so disdainful of politicians as a class, yet fail to realize polticians reflect voter preferences. If we really liked straight shooters who give their unequivocal and unpopular opinions, unvarnished, there would be more politicians like that. As it is, people like that tend to get roasted.

Although, that question did ask what people thought of their home state senators - not other senators. It's quite likely, say, New York voters are less enamoured with Frist than his home state voters.

by scientician 2005-10-25 02:00PM | 0 recs

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It's Always The Other Guy

No reason to get mad at anyone, except the nation as a whole. For the most part, they think that their "guys" are okay, it's those other dumb bastards who screw thing up. The only solace I take out of this pole is that Righteous Rick Santorum is at the bottom.

by blogus 2005-10-25 02:08PM | 0 recs

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Why is Mark Dayton

so fucking unpopular in a blue state? Doesn't he have any competent surrogates and aides and political people around him?

And those 45% against Corzine in NJ? That's ludicrous. What the fuck do those NJ voters want, anyway?

by jgarcia 2005-10-25 02:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Why is Mark Dayton

Dayton has never recovered from the perception that he's a little looney and a little weak-kneed after he closed his Senate office, claiming intel that there was a terror threat.

Right or wrong, I do not know. But them's the breaks.

by jhupp 2005-10-25 02:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Why is Mark Dayton

I would assume that NJ voters are just cynical about all incumbent politicians. I would be if I were a NJ resident and didn't follow politics all that closely.

by Valatan 2005-10-25 02:31PM | 0 recs

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McCain fell off of a cliff

His approve #'s fell 7 points, and his disapprove #'s rose 8 points.

Jim Talent is increasing both numbers--let's hope Claire can pull this one out.

Who's running against Kyl, anyway?

by Valatan 2005-10-25 02:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: McCain fell off of a cliff

Jim Pederson, the (former) state party chair.

by johnny longtorso 2005-10-25 03:05PM | 0 recs

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Race and Illinois Senators

I put up a more detailed post at Soapblox/Chicago, but the gist of it is that Dick Durbin's numbers in Illinois are dramatically reduced among blacks relative to other demographics. For August and the three months before it, among blacks he had a +20 (50/30) approval. In September, and now again in October, his numbers are 43/47 for a net 3% disapproval.

Can someone guess at to why this is? Was there something about his response to Katrina that alienated black voters? I can't imagine it was the Roberts hearings. Was there something else?

by ltsply2 2005-10-25 03:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: Race and Illinois Senators

I wouldn't attribute much to poll movement among racial minorities, as they are a smaller sample (and thus have a higher margin of error).

by Skaje 2005-10-25 04:25PM | 0 recs

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I am posting just to say

the "49 state strategy" comment was hilarious.

by Steve M 2005-10-25 03:51PM | 0 recs

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US Senators up for re-election in2006.

Senators facing re-election in 2006 who's job approval rating is below 50% and whose Job approval rating is above 40%.

1)Rick Santorum PA 45% Approve 48% Disapprove.
2)Mark Dayton MN 44% Approve 46% Disapprove(Dayton is not running for re-election).
3)Mike DeWine OH 45% Approve 43% Disapprove.
4)Bill Frist TN 49% Approve 45% Disapprove(Frist is not running for re-election)
5)Jon Corzine NJ 49% Approve 44% Disapprove
(Corzine is going be elected to the NJ GOvernorship)
Santorum and Dewine are the most vulnerable Senator's seeking re-election in 2006.

Other Senator's whose Job Approval rating is below 50%.
6)Bill Nelson FL Approve 46% Disapprove 38%. (Bill Nelson has a weak Republican Opponent).
7)John Kyl- AZ Approve 48% Disapprove 38%. Kyl's Disapproval rating went from 31% to 38%.)Looks like Kyl's is becoming More Vulnerable.
8)George Allen-VA Approve 49% Disapprove 38%. We need a Candidate to Challenge Allen.

Talent-MO and Burns-MT job approval rating is slightly above 50% but their Disapproval rating is slightly above 40%.

Stabenow and Cantwell's job approval rating is slightly above 50% but their Disapproval rating is slightly below 40%.

by CMBurns 2005-10-25 04:01PM | 0 recs

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Uh-oh

Feingold's numbers aren't great (55/39)(tracking for a possible 2008 run). But they sure are weird:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc67ebc3-164e-4832-a157-acbb023f9659

Whites love him-minorities hate him. Huh? This may be a statstical blip (minorities always have small sample sizes in these polls)-but Blacks (48/52), Hispanics (17/66), and Other (37/54) all have him in negative territory, while Whites (57/37) show him with a twenty point lead. And it's certainly racial and not something else, as the results by party and by ideology show that he is loved by Democrats (71/23) and liberals (69/23) and hated by Republicans (35/60) and conservatives (35/59). At least he is winning independents (55/38) and moderates (65/30)-always a good sign.

I wonder if this is because he's Jewish? But Boxer, Feinstein, and Lieberman don't show this (are there any other Jews in the senate?). Now, this doesn't matter much in the Democratic primaries, since there are fewer minorities in both New Hampshire and Iowa than Wisconsin (and not many in Wisconsin to begin with), but it might be worrysome in a general election.

Hmmm...checking with the previous poll...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=10b3f9dc-e8ea-41b0-b36c-d66372159564

There's weakness there amoungst Hispanics and Others, although not amoungst Blacks and not this dramatic. Probably statstical error in the newer poll. His overall numbers are down in the newer poll, as well as from all sub-groups, too. I wonder if his loud anti-war stance is hurting him.

by Geotpf 2005-10-25 04:28PM | 0 recs

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Oh wait

That second poll is the June poll. There was an August one too.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9e959b42-962e-4184-848f-3ae64384ef9a

Hmm...now he's in negative territory with Blacks again, a dead heat with Hispanics, and liked by Others. But Feingold's score in all three polls is better amoungst Whites than overall. Peculiar.

by Geotpf 2005-10-25 04:34PM | 0 recs

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Other Jews in the Senate...

Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR) and Norm Coleman (MN)

There may be more, but those are off the top of my head.

Moderates and Independents may be the more important demographic from an electability standpoint, because even if Feingold was viewed suspiciously by minorities in 2008 if he were the Democratic nominee, I doubt most of them would defect to the Republicans (staying home might be a bigger problem).

by Keith Brekhus 2005-10-25 05:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: Other Jews in the Senate...

Carl Levin, Arlen Specter, Frank Lautenberg, and Herb Kohl are the rest.

by johnny longtorso 2005-10-25 06:22PM | 0 recs

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I agree

Remember the line from Bulworth (when he was at a black church)-"What are you going to do, vote for the Republican?"

by Geotpf 2005-10-25 11:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Uh-oh

Well, I looked up how Feingold did the last time he ran:

Feingold won the Black vote 83-17, which is a worse than I would have expected. This is a little worse than Kerry (Kerry won the black vote 86-14). Blacks made up about 5 % of the vote in 2004, as opposed to 3% in 2000 (the number is so small the networks do not report a separate tally).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297345/

by fladem 2005-10-25 06:05PM | 0 recs

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Damn

I meant to do that too. Those numbers aren't bad, although they aren't great, either. I wonder what the problem is.

by Geotpf 2005-10-25 11:26PM | 0 recs

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I've posted many times we can forget about Nevada

Hopefully this poll will highlight that unfortunate truth, and all but eliminate phony hopes about that race and knocking off John Ensign.

From the outside, I can understand the misplaced optimism. Ensign is a lightweight politician even by GOP standards. The national perception is Nevada is turning blue. Ensign got an underwhelming percentage in 2000 while dismissing a local, and not exactly popular, personal injury attorney in Ed Bernstein.

I guess you have to live here to realize the political dynamics of Nevada. 9/11 made a huge impact, particularly in southern Nevada with the big hotels a widely rumored logical terrorist target. We're not going to get heavy percentage in Las Vegas anymore, especially against Ensign who is based in Las Vegas. The expansion in Las Vegas is to the north and west, major high income developments that will vote GOP. On top of that, rural Nevada tends to vote in much heavier percentage in midterms than Las Vegas, meaning we would have had an incredibly tough time ousting Ensign even if a blue chip candidate had been available.

Last week I saw Harry Reid on the local political show, hosted by Jon Ralston who is hardly shy of asking tough questions. Reid didn't even pretend Carter had a chance. Ralston said, "You're not going to lift a finger for Jack Carter, are you? It's going to be just like 2000 with Ed Bernstein. You know he has no chance to beat John Ensign." Reid paused for several seconds before replying with a bland, "Well, you never know." That was it. Not a hint of a smile or any enthusiasm.

I hope MyDD realizes Harry Reid has properly handicapped the race, and the less we focus on it, the better.

by jagakid 2005-10-25 05:34PM | 0 recs

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Why 2006 isn't 1994

What these numbers show is the power of incumbancy pure and simple.

There are a lot of analogies floating around to 1994, but at a basic level it fails because there are simply too few open seats. It is worth remembering that the GOP only beat one incumbent Senator in 1994.

by fladem 2005-10-25 05:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: Why 2006 isn't 1994

Actually it was two.

Jim Sasser-TN lost to Bill Frist.
Harris Wofford-PA lost to Rick Santorum.

I expect Santorum-PA and DeWine-OH to lose.

by CMBurns 2005-10-25 05:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: Why 2006 isn't 1994

I forgot about Wofford - who won his seat in a special election.

by fladem 2005-10-25 06:06PM | 0 recs

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Generi congressional poll

I simply have to go to HL Mencken's opinions about the taste and intelligence of the American public. Do anyone need anymore proof than the make up of the three branches of the federal government for confirmation? Feel free to insult the electorate anytime you choose.

by Docsilver 2005-10-26 10:09AM | 0 recs