Democratic Party Viewed Far More Favorably Than Republican Party

Wow. Check this out from Gallup:CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 13-16, 2005. N=1,012 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
Democratic Party
Date	  Favorable	Unfavorable
10/16	     52 		    36
09/11	     47 		    41
07/22	     52 		    38
04/02	     50 		    42
02/06	     46 		    47

Republican Party
Date	  Favorable	Unfavorable
10/16	     40 		    50
09/11	     45 		    45
07/22	     46 		    45
04/02	     50 		    44
02/06	     56 		    39
That is a big turnaround from just eight months ago. Democrats also lead 45-32 in the generic ballot according to this poll. While I am sure that some of this strong shift to Demcorats is the result of Gallup having a fluid partisan ID sample, Democrats holidng a 26 point edge in favorable / unfavorable rating after being down twenty earlier this year is dramatic. We have a lot of work to do, but one year out, 2006 looks like our best chance to retake Congres since we lost it in 1994. This is especially true given the way fundraising is going, and while we hold the generic versus specific advantage during an unpopular administration.

Tags: Democrats (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

I Really Believe That Framing Will Be The Key
Despite rampant confusion and even hostility on many parts, what's going to win or lose it for the Dems is going to be framing.  People's sentiments are definitely with the Dems, and for good reasons.  The Reps will try to frame the next election in terms that will undercut people's basic sentiments, and Dems will need to frame the election in terms that articularte those sentiments into coherent critiques of what is, and credible proposals for what can be instead.

One of the most difficult tasks will be in terms of foreign policy (see my diary "Re-Framing Is The Key To A Sound And Winning Foreign Policy"), where large majorities want us out of Iraq, but where the problems goes much, much deeper, and very little thought has been given to crafting a coherent alternative.  As long as hawks are dominating the debate, the Democratic Party cannot even seriously begin the discussion that needs to happen about articulating a foreign policy vision that is fundamentally non-violent... not out of weakness, but because violence itself is a sign of failure.

by Paul Rosenberg 2005-10-22 10:43AM | 0 recs
Why can't do this stuff by state
like they do the President's numbers? Wouldn't it be more useful to localize these polls as much as possible? I assume district by district would be too tough so why not state by state or better yet regions of states.
by bruh21 2005-10-22 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Why can't do this stuff by state
Polling is very expensive.  In fact, most news orgs are pretty cheap when it comes to polling and sometimes that is reflected in the quality of said polls.

It would be incredibly expensive for Gallup to survey state by state and district by district because they use real people as their phone operators as opposed to survey USA which uses an automated 'robo-dialing' system.

We'll see more detailed info on a state by state level as the election draws nearer and news orgs view the investment in such polling as necessary.

by rapid response 2005-10-22 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Why can't do this stuff by state
That's good because I don't see how these numbers are telling us what the purple regions of the country are thinking?
by bruh21 2005-10-22 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Why can't do this stuff by state
National, and even state by state numbers are meaningless. One of the things that the Repubs did right, on their way to taking control of Congress, was win at the state level. This allowed them to gerrymander the districts to favor them. Blue districts will vote blue and red will vote red, so the only numbers that mean anything at this time are purple district numbers. But for the long haul, the Dems have to retake states governments and pull a "delay" redistricting plan.
by blogus 2005-10-22 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Why can't do this stuff by state
Or just make them all non partisan competive races and take our chances in the way of a real democracy.
by bruh21 2005-10-22 02:06PM | 0 recs
I agree that we're in good position, but...
I'm an optimist when it comes to dem prospects in 06.  This is largely because of trends being captured in several polls.

I would caution against putting too much stock in these gallup numbers.  Look at the results in 2004 for both of the questions Chris cited.  

There appears to be little actual improvement for the Democrats from 2004.  In terms of favorability, we're basically at the same point we were before the swiftboating and republican attack convention walloped Kerry and the party.  Basically, we've bounced back, but we're hardly in a true position of strength.

In both of these questions, what we're seeing is that the republicans are sinking fast, and the Democrats still have yet to make up ground.

Not that I don't think we will, but there is still reason for alarm.  Hopefully the Dems on the Hill can get their act together for the rollout of our positive agenda thats supposed to happening soon.

by rapid response 2005-10-22 10:52AM | 0 recs
Maybe now the press will stop the whole...
Republicans are unpopular but no one likes the Dems either bull crap.  I'm not going to hild my breath though.
by Lavoisier1794 2005-10-22 11:07AM | 0 recs
ok
WHich Democrats are they talking about though? Generic Democrat can mean alot of things,from the conservative Mary Landeriu to the Liberal Barney Frank. To anything in between when someone says generic one or the other it really doens't mean anything since you don't know what is in their head. When surveys went into the question of generic Democrat you got ton of answers and if we don't offer up candidates people like they will simply vote for the republican that is in office already and we will miss the opportunity.

Unfortunately the activist base of the party Schews,who is nominated in pretty much anything other than a presidental election i.e. since 82% of Democratic activists id them selves as Liberal 12% Moderate and 1% conservative

While Democrats as a whole 27 percent identified themselves as liberal, 26 percent as conservative, and 42 percent as moderate.

We end up with candidates that are generally outside the mainstream of the areas they live in. A situation where when mainstream candidate trys to run they can't find any activist support or support ingeneral unless they can buy it i.e. people who would support them in the primary generally won't come out to do anything for them other than vote and unless they can spend alot of money to over come this they can't win and in this enviroment it is hard for those candidates to make it to the primary or even be heard from.  

So even thought they say a generic Democratic they want a generic Democrat they are willing to support not a generic democrat that the activists in the party want so more or less we go around in circles of the activists think this candidate is great spend a ton of time support the candidate get them thru the primary then they get murdered in the general when the republican pulls off 1/3 to a 1/2 of Democrats, in areas that are outside of metro or highly liberal areas.

Then we go around in this vicious circle of blaming the republicans for cheating, denial anger and then doing the same thing all over again.

That is part of how we got to this point. It's not about what the party activist want it's about what the party as a whole wants and the majority of party activist seems to be out of touch with that
 

by orin76 2005-10-22 11:11AM | 0 recs
Giuliani Is At His Peak
Rudy is definately a strong candidate but it is important to remember 9/11 will 7 years past in 2008 and he has not been through the rough and tumble of a campaign since then.  I could be wrong but I think he is as high as he is going to get right now.  As a NYer, I know he is prickly and somewhat authoritarian which could be problematic on the campaign trail.  And don't forget the Bernie Kerik stuff which will be all over the place if he runs.  And Bernie wasn't just a commissioner for him, he worked at Giuliani partners until the scandal hit.

McCain still scares me more especially since he has run once.

It is pretty clear Hillary is a loser except against a weak opponent.  I like her but I have always thought she was too polarizing nationally and these head to heads show that.

by John Mills 2005-10-22 01:58PM | 0 recs
If McCain is the Republican nominee
I don't see how he can possibly lose.  If that ends up being the case, the Dems might as well go nominate an anti-goldwater, and try to create a well-labeled left-wing ideology
by Valatan 2005-10-23 06:41AM | 0 recs
Re: If McCain is the Republican nominee
No what the party needs to do is nominate a Democratic Governor from any state that isn't in the ne, or Wesley Clark
by orin76 2005-10-23 08:26AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------