Election Fraud in Iraq? Looks like it.

by Chris Bowers, Mon Oct 17, 2005 at 08:35:48 AM EDT

Moving on to Iraq from the previous post (Iraq is really the mother of all scandals), there may have been some rather severe election fraud during the recent vote in Ninevah province. From Juan Cole:Al-Hayat reports that 643,000 votes were cast in Ninevah Province (capital: Mosul). At the time it filed, 419,000 had been preliminarily counted, and the vote was running 75 percent in favor. Ninevah Province was the most likely place that Sunni Arabs opposing the constitution might be able to get a 2/3s "no" vote. This number stands out for two reasons. First, these numbers compare to a neighboring province, Salaheddin, as follows:In the Sunni-dominated province of Salaheddin, which includes Tikrit, election official Saleh Khalil Farraj told AFP that turnout was 80 per cent, but added that the percentage of `no' votes was 71 per cent. 71% "no" in Salaheddin, and only 25% "no" in Ninevah? A 46% difference from one Suuni Arb province to another? This level of discrepency is very, very hard to believe, considering how similar these two provinces voted in January, and that both have Suuni Arab majorities. (Click here for a detailed, province-by-province table on the January elections).

Second, this result is also a little stunning considering the following story from September:

If the referendum on Iraq's draft constitution next month is conducted fairly, it now appears very likely that the document will be defeated by a two-thirds majority in the three Sunni-dominated provinces of Anbar, Salahadeen and Nineveh, plunging Iraq into a new political crisis.

However, one way such a defeat could be averted is by massive vote fraud in the key province of Nineveh. According to an account provided by the U.S. liaison with the local election commission, supported by physical evidence collected by the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI), Kurdish officials in Nineveh province tried to carry out just such a ballot-stuffing scheme in last January's election.

This looks a lot like fraud in Ninevah. To buck another, neighboring Sunni Arab majority privnce to the tune of 46% after a plot to defraud the vote in Ninevah province was uncovered in January stinks of fraud. A lot. And they didn't even do it well--20% would be streching it, but 46%? Juan Cole notes:Several of my knowledgeable readers are convinced that the Ninevah voting results as reported so far look like fraud. One suspected that the Iraqi government so feared a defeat there that they over-did the ballot stuffing and ended up with an implausible result. This would be like Bush winning Rhode Island by 30% without any other rsults changing nationwide. Something is very wrong in Ninevah.

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)

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What else should we expect...

from the crowd that brought us Bush 2000?

And you can bet the courts are stacked to back up whatever result they want.

The irony of this is that this constitution's first product will be bloodshed, then it'll produce an Iran subsidiary state. Then we'll probably be reissuing its membership to the Axis of Evil. Which will bring about another war.

How long is it before we can get rid of the Axis of Assholes that are running this?

New on EWM, you won't believe this one: DeLay Releases "Earle's Gone Wild" Video

by The Muse 2005-10-17 09:41AM | 0 recs

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Worst of All Possible Worlds

Dubya and the posse couldn't have crafted a worse outcome. It confirms for the Sunnis that politics in Iraq have been corrupt, are now corrupt and will be corrupt. It ensures that the Sunnis will not be brought into the national dialogue. It will energize their efforts to throw off the illegitimate regime that the Dubya cabal is trying impose on Iraq. Rather than providing a road home for American forces in Iraq it condemns them to the highway to hell. Dubya and his cronies need to be confined in the lowest depths of hell for the way they have totally bungled any hope the US had of achieving a decent outcome in Iraq. How corrupt and incompetent can one regime be?

by VizierVic 2005-10-17 10:45AM | 0 recs

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Possible Fraud in Diyala also

MSNBC- Is reporting this:

The province of Diyala, for example, is believed to have a slight Sunni Arab majority. But reports from electoral officials there on Sunday reported a 70 percent "yes" vote and a 20 percent "no."

Politics as usual, W says "Stay the Course".

ArousedNews

by ArousedNewsJulienDavid 2005-10-17 12:20PM | 0 recs

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Problems in Shiite and Kurdish Provinces, Too

According to this recent story posted by the New York Times, "Vote Totals Under Inquiry in 12 Iraqi Provinces, Panel Says", the problems seem to extend to much of the rest of the country, as well:

Iraqi election officials said today that they were investigating what they described as "unusually high" vote totals in 12 Shiite and Kurdish provinces, where as many 99 percent of the voters were reported to have cast ballots in favor of Iraq's new constitution, raising the possibility that the results of Saturday's referendum could be called into question.
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Members of the Iraqi election commission declined to speak about the announcement of the investigation. But an official with knowledge of the ballot counting said that the 12 provinces where the "yes" votes exceeded 90 percent all had populations that were either majority Shiite or Kurdish. Leaders from those communities strongly endorsed the proposed constitution. More than one of those provinces, the official said, reported that 99 percent of the ballots counted had been cast in favor of the constitution.
None of the provinces cited for a closer look had Sunni majorities.
"When you find consistently very, very high numbers, then that is cause for further checking," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the information. "Anything over 90 percent either way usually leads to further investigation."
Even if no evidence of fraud is found, today's announcement seems likely to trigger suspicions among many Iraqi voters, especially Sunnis, many of whom are deeply suspicious of the Shiite majority and of the Kurds.

It would appear increasingly doubtful that independent observers will find this referendum as truly fair and valid.

by The Maven 2005-10-17 12:36PM | 0 recs

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Where's Kenneth when we need him?

Too bad they didn't hire Ken Blackwell to oversee the election returns. He'd have fixed it right the first time.

by Tod Westlake 2005-10-17 02:20PM | 0 recs