Some Perspective on 2006
by Chris Bowers, Thu Oct 13, 2005 at 08:50:33 AM EDT
Most Recent Generic Ballot Polls, 2005 Poll DNC RNC Date NBC 48 39 10/10 News 47 42 9/30 Fox 40 32 9/28 DCorps 48 39 9/21 Winston 48 40 9/15 Pew 52 40 9/11 Mean 47.2 38.7 Median 48 39.5The most recent polls from the six organizations that have conducted generic ballot polls in the last two months show Democrats looking pretty strong. However, had I conducted the same sort of poll round up in early August of 2004, during the peak of the Democratic campaign, the situation would have looked much the same:
Generic Cong. Ballots, 2004 Poll DNC RNC Date DCorps 51 41 8/05 AP 48 44 8/05 Gallup 49 44 8/01 News 51 41 7/30 CBS 46 37 7/15 NBC 44 42 6/28 GW 49 41 6/23 LAT 54 35 6/08 Time 49 37 6/04 Mean 49.0 40.2 Median 49 41During this two month period, which included the selection of Edwards as VP and the Democratic National Convention, Democrats held a nearly identical lead in the congressional generic ballot. And this included the most recent poll from nine different organizations over a two month period.
Now, I am not one to argue that previous early leads by Demcorats didn't matter. to the contrary, imagine how badly we would have been wiped out in 2004 had Republicans been tied up in these polls in August. Republicans can close strong with enormous, negative ads buys attacking Demcoratic candidaes in the final two weeks of an election. Their large monetary advantage and ruthlessness always makes that possible. Howver, amid stories discussing Republican recruiting woes and Democratic optimism, it is useful to have some perspective.
Generic congressional polls matter, but they also seem to have more flexibility than Presidential polls. That is not particuarly surprising, since some Republicans can win in districts where Kerry or Gore won nearly 60% of the vote, and some Democrats can win in districts where Bush received nearly 60% of the vote. Congressional elections consistently provide more cross-over votes than Presidential ones, and thus generic congressional ballot polls can be expected to have more fluidity than Presidential ones.
Right now, beyond polls, recruiting candidates is the key to success in 2006. The more we can stretch Republicans by finding challengers in all 435 seats, by reducing the number of lightly challenged seats to an absolute minimum (ala Project 90), by taking it right to the Republican leadership, and by lining up as many immediately competitive challenges as possible, the better positioned we will be for 2006. Big leads in congressional generic ballot polls, plus a thinly stretched Republican incumbency, is the basic formula to 2006 success. Of course, a lot of money to run ads in the last two weeks, plus a great GOTV system, won't hurt either.
Tags: House 2006 (all tags)
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