Elections 2005

by Chris Bowers, Sat Jan 29, 2005 at 07:04:40 AM EST

In New Jersey, McGreevey's troubles do not seem to be undermining other Democrats. According to the latest Q-poll, the Democratic primary appears to be the election that will determine who wins in November:From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,215 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 433 registered Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, and 329 registered Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.

In a Democratic primary, Gov. Codey trails U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine 43 - 33 percent, compared to a 60 - 20 percent gap in a Nov. 17, 2004, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Codey beats two possible Republican challengers 2 - 1:

54 - 26 percent over Bret Schundler;
53 - 25 percent over Douglas Forrester.

Corzine also runs well against the Republicans:

52 - 28 percent over Bret Schundler;
51 - 29 percent over Douglas Forrester.

Among Republican voters, Schundler and Forrester are tied at 32 percent each with 29 percent undecided. New Jersey appears to be very safe Democratic, although it is interesting that Codey is quickly gaining ground on Corzine. This makes New Jersey the 2005 primary to watch.

The general election race to watch is Virginia. Virginia is particularly important for Democrats, since its partisan index indicates that, for the first time since Carter, it is not a swing state. Also, Governor Warner is a promising member of the Democratic bench on the Senate, Vice-Presidential and Presidential levels. Defeat for the 2005 Democratic candidate would take much of the shine off Warner's future. The candidates are already in place, unless there are minor primary challengers of whom I am unaware. Here is some more:

With only two gubernatorial contests on the ballot this fall - the other one is in New Jersey - the Virginia contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Timothy Kaine and Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore provides Democrats their best chance this year to redefine themselves as they search for a new national message.

In New Jersey, a "blue" state that Democrat John Kerry won easily last fall, Democrats appear to hold the upper hand, with multimillionaire U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine considered the early favorite for governor. But a Democratic victory in New Jersey, analysts say, would not match the symbolism of a win in a Republican stronghold like Virginia.

"Virginia will probably get more attention than anything else this year," said Earl Black, a scholar of Southern politics at Rice University in Texas. "Democrats would be looking to embarrass President Bush if they could hold the governorship in Virginia, next door to the White House."

The clearest sign of Democratic resolve came earlier this month, when the national party pledged $5 million for the Virginia race - the party's largest investment ever made in a governor's contest.

"This money signifies a long-term commitment by the DNC to building party infrastructure, building the grassroots from the bottom up, and helping races from governor to House delegate," said Terry McAuliffe, who steps down next month as national party chairman.

Republicans dismissed the financial pledge, saying it will do little to mask what they describe as Kaine's record of higher taxes and opposition to the death penalty.

This is a big, big showdown. The Democratic pledge of support is enormous, and something about the Republican issues that they seem to be running on seem so, well, 1990's. If Democrats can continue to gain in Virginia, we will put something of a crimp in the Republican governing coalition. If Republicans win, well, it will be like everything else lately--conservatives continuing to rise no matter how promising things looked for Democrats in the months before the election.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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Codey won't run . . .

Per the Trenton Times Codey won't be running, making Corzine the presumptive D candidate. That Codey was gaining on Corzine actually makes the General Election a little frightening - it could mean a gradual erosion of support for the senator's candidacy.

by actappan 2005-01-29 07:45AM | 0 recs

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"not" should be "now" above

For the first time since whenever Virginia is NOW (not NOT) a swing state.

I'd expect Codey to gain on Corzine in the primary polls because Codey's name rec has gone way, way up in the weeks or few months since he took over as Governor. Weird that Corzine runs slightly behind Codey in the general, but Corzine's still over 50, and the Rethugs still under 30-- fine with me.

by accommodatingly 2005-01-29 08:28AM | 0 recs

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reason Codey's numbers are good

is nothing bad about Corzine. It's because of the radio talk show host thing.

by sam89 2005-01-29 09:03AM | 0 recs

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Of course Mcgreevey had no impact

Jersey is the most graft packed state this side of 50 years. No one expects much except scandal from what I hear.

by bruh21 2005-01-29 09:16AM | 0 recs

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NJ Guv

As a Jerseyan, I can state that I feel pretty comfortable with the Governor's race, but only up to a point. Whether Codey runs or not, he will have the greatest impact on the race. If he totally botches pay to play and other reforms, the people in the state could be fairly angry come November.

Also, his numbers are high, but not because of the 101.5 drama, but because he has not put his budget out there yet. If his polling survives a difficult budget, then watch out.

The real NJ race to watch is the Andrews, Pallone, Menendez, etc..., battle for Corzine's Senate seat.

by SGlennW 2005-01-29 09:32AM | 0 recs

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Is Corzine's seat safe?

Is there danger of a Republican 2006 pickup?

by Skaje 2005-01-29 11:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: Is Corzine's seat safe?

I wouldn't worry as much about it as I would about Florida.

by sam89 2005-01-29 12:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is Corzine's seat safe?

I would say this seat would be moderately safe Dem. However, Chris Christie, N.J.'s U.S. Attorney, or Tom Kean's son, Tom Jr., are dangerous. Christie has a rep as being the only one fighting the state's corruption, given that our state AG, Peter Harvey, combines criminality and incompetence in rare form. Kean is playing on the gov't reform issue that is so big a deal here, plus he has his father's name recognition.

This will be a harder seat to hold then keeping the Gov in blue, but I still think it holds blue.

by SGlennW 2005-01-29 01:23PM | 0 recs

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NJ--Codey�s out

See stories here, here, here, and here to see what happened.

by Colorado Gringo 2005-01-29 01:33PM | 0 recs

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Dems need to stand behind Kaine

Virginia Dems will be no problem...but Dems across the country need to stay on top of this race and show support. The Republican candidate is weak, but the typical R strategy of branding the opponent as a liberal and demagoguing gay marriage and the death penalty are going to take some real effort to combat.

The good news is that Kilgore has some problems that have gotten covered on Political State Report:

He's not that bright. His performance in debates has been atrocious and he regularly puts his foot in his mouth, as he did this past week on the meth issue (Kaine release, PolState post):

Reporter: (voice over) "But 'Meth Watch' is only voluntary, while other states have enacted tougher, mandatory laws."

Reporter: (to Kilgore) "Would it not be stronger though, if it were mandatory? You know, if a law were passed in the General Assembly?"

Kilgore: "Well, um, you never want to, um, require that (pause) individuals participate in certain programs."

It's odd that Attorney General Kilgore would disagree with his own brother's bill...but even stranger that he would hand the Kaine team this stick to whack him with. Voluntary controls on the sale of meth ingredients can reasonably be expected to be "weaker" and "less effective" than mandatory ones.

Virginia's wing nut Republicans, along with Grover Norquist, are trying to knife moderate Republicans who have been working with Warner and Kaine in the back (PolState Post 1, Polstate Post 2):

Governor Warner has characterized the House Republican proposal as an election year gimmick, and he may be right. The problem for Republicans is that they may be doing themselves as much damage by fighting amongst themselves as conservatives are doing themselves good by branding themselves as tax-cutters. Worse still for Kilgore, the Senate Republicans are not only siding with Warner and Kaine, their communications message on the issue is similar as well. Warner and Kaine talk about fiscal responsibility, meeting obligations, and maintaining a solid posture for lean years that may come in the future. Republican senators talk about paying "what we owe first" and meeting "core needs".

Even better news for Democrats is that the Kaine campaign is hitting Kilgore hard when he makes mistakes, and appears unafraid of being called negative by the press. This is a sharp counterpoint to John Kerry's failure to attack Bush when he was being attacked.

In Tim Kaine, we have a superior candidate who is not afraid to get in the ring with the Republican attack machine...he deserves our support. If he wins, he'll show that we can play in the South and set an example for other Dems of how to wage a tough-as-nails campaign.

Kaine's site is www.Kaine2005.org.

by redsoxkangaroo 2005-01-29 01:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: Get in the Ring

Ideally the entire Democratic Party would make the trip to Virginia to campaign hard for Tim Kaine. Challenging the Republicans to, in the words of Axl Rose, "Get in the Motherfucking ring" is precisely how the campaign has to go. Kaine has name recognition in the Richmond area, while NoVa becomes more and more liberal because it's the only area with affordable housing for younger progressive workers to live in.

But Kaine will get only tepid support from national Dems. The candidate is trying to push malpractice reform in a state which has ridiculously defendant-friendly tort law. They have not even abolished contributory negligence as complete bar! Half the Democratic Party are lawyers: Kaine either has to drop this part of platform or he can count on not seeing many national Democrats coming to the Commonwealth to campaign on his behalf.

by risenmessiah 2005-01-29 06:49PM | 0 recs

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DMV

The worst thing Whitman did was to privatize the DMV. A Republican company from California, Parsons Technology, made a mega mess of the thing. Lines went out the door, like Cleveland on election day, only every frigging thing took more than one trip. Moved back to the state and it took 5 trips to get the car registered. Horrendous!

McGreevy became a saint when he ended it, never mind anything else. I think it will be a while before the state goes for a Republican governor again.

I'm personally not too keen on Christie -- a suburban prig who strikes both parties on the very local level but has done nothing much to improve things. He was a one term county freeholder who left in some disgrace. I suspect that Schundler would whip his ass in a primary as he runs to the hard right. And that is the conundrum of local politics here. A soft Republican can get elected to a Senate seat but will have a really hard time winning a primary.

Keane's father has been out of office for quite a while but he consistently polls as the most influential Republican in New Jersey Monthly magazine. NJ may not be full of blue bloods but it has tended to vote for them over the past half dozen decades. Somehow in a hugely ethnic state we wind up with governors named Meyner, Hughes, Byrne, Keane, Todd Whitman, McGreevey. Only ethnic was Florio.

In summary, we should retain both seats but the Senate one is the harder to keep.

I wish Corzine would keep his seat in the Senate. It's the safest thing. Torricelli flirted with the change before the scandal. Despite spending 60 million of his own money, Corzine is not a good candidate. Not old money. Last time he barely scraped by Bob Franks despite a 15 to 1 money edge wwith Franks closing strong.

by David Kowalski 2005-01-29 01:59PM | 0 recs

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Polling has started in IRAQ

Polling has started in IRAQ. Lets hope things turn out ok there.

BoshTang
Voice of the Free
Libertarian Blog

by boshtang 2005-01-29 06:52PM | 0 recs