Anyway, I think there are resons to be very thankful about what is happening.

A. Had Bush killed S S then the whole ball game would be over. The Dem. Party would be utterly lost if it couldn't defend S S. And the triumphalist Neo Cons would be about 65% of the way to their dismantling of democracy as we know it.

Actually, the response of Dem leaders was nervous and uninspired. Thank God that the American people aren't yet willing to accept the death of S S.

But of course the people are 1 thing and the Rep. legislature is another. Here is your concern: "The GOP Congress is no more likely to investigate Bushco scandals or oppose most of his agenda now. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets his Wall Street buddies to call their Republican friends and ram Social Security reform through Congress."

This point raises the really good news:

B. The Rep. legislature refused to follow Bush over the cliff on this one.

ALREADY that is a major difference from the past. When you say that the GOP HAS given Bush what he wants, you are of course historically correct. But then that's the point--THIS TIME THEY DIDN'T!

Why? COnsider this:

C. Bush is a Lame Duck. Of course, every 2nd term Pres. is a lame duck the minute the opponent concedes. But the lameness is a progression over time. Around Inauguration Day, the re-elected guy may not seem seem too lame, but by the end of the mid-term elections, he really doesn't have a lot of clout left.

Now here's the million dollar question with any 2nd term Pres.: how fast does the lameness show? The speed of onset is a big variable, and it determines what a 2nd term Pres. can do and not do.

Think of the Republican Party. How do they view Bush? Well, he kept the W H for them. Goody. And his scare tactics did get them some gains in the legislature. But Bush will never run for office again. He cannot personally win any office for them. Bush as a candidate is so over for them.

The next political event they care about is clear: the mid-term elections. The real question they have of Bush right now is simple: will you hurt us or help us in Nov. 2006?

And the answer to THAT question hinges on whether he learns to moderate himself or whether he keeps screwing up. Many of these guys know how precarious things are right now. They know that Bush has hung Iraq around the neck of the elephant along with numerous other time bombs, many of them economic.

These guys know that if Bush goes Ape Man and tilts at some impossible mill like S S, he can pull the Republican legislature down in 18 months. Understand this: they will NOT permit him to do that. He has nothing left--he can't run again. If his leadership goes off a cliff, they will quietly pull back and take another road.

So they watch the polls. And they know that Bush's great mandates have no support. Which means that following Bush into Man Date Land will hurt them in 2006.

Which means that their support for Bush from here on out, unlike before, CONDITIONAL! And we are already seeing that they are going to back away when they feel the need to do so.

All of which means that ...

E. BUSH CAN DO LESS DAMAGE IF HE BLOWS HIS FIRST COUPOLE OF MOVES!

The faster Bush's lameness announces itself, the less damage Bush can do.

Had Bush started slowly and done some doable things, he MIGHT have been able to build up some political capital and made a stronger power play in, say, early 2007. Fortunately, Bush is one of the most incompetent politicians in history and he just poured about 78% of his re-election capital down the crapper.

And this leads me to breathe ... just a little.

It is my profound belief that we are in a race. Democracy has to survive long enough for this Republican play for hegemony to collapse. If democracy lasts long enough, that collapse is inevitable. You can't ask poor evengelicals to ignore their poverty and lack of health care forever.

My huge concern was ALWAYS about that race. I figured that it was probably 1-2 years early to break through the Republican Matrix with realities like Iraq and evaporating health care. But I was terrified by the damage Bush could do in those next 2-3 years.

Well, I am not without concerns. But I am breathing a bit. S S is weakening Bush and reducing the damage he can do. And consider this issue:

Iran! Bush, the emotional 12 year old, has no patience, no sense of timing. He wins the election and his first, ridiculously immature impulse is to make a pair of petulant demands: kill S S and invade Iran. Like the moron he is, he trots the stuff out there before the inauguration!

Well, S S is collapsing, and I personally want toi see him try to build support for action against Iran. I want to SEE him send Condi out there to convince the world and America to multiply Iraq times 5! Hell, even Tony Blair will bail on his ass.

We have to remember that politics is always about growing or dying. Bush is getting stronger or he is getting weaker. There is no in between in politics.

If S S fades away (and I am NOT counting on that yet) and his awkward trial baloons on Iran are made of lead, then that means Bush and the Republican Party are weaknening. Which leads to your last concern:

F. The judgships.

Baby, those will be battles.

But understand this. Those battles would have been far, far harder to win had Bush gotten an anti-S S wave going! As it stands, we now have a chance.

Bush SHOULD have focused on the judgships. He never should have messed with S S. He should have proposed some innocuous cabinet members (not Condi Rice Pudding and Gonzo Gonzalez), stripped everything else off the table, and taken on the Dems over the judg ships.

As it is, he has already weakened himself, gotten his way with ridiculous cabinet choices, and ... (drum roll) ...

CREATED DISTANCE BETWEEN HIMSELF AND THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS!

That is astonishingly stupid before the judge fight.

Remember, there ARE moderate Republicans who are very leery of Bush. Arlen Spector, Chairman of the Juciary Committee, is one of them.

If Bush seems weakened and Movement Rethugs distance themselves from Bush on S S and perhaps another war, then it will be EASIER for Spector and Chaffee and Snow to be influential in the selection of less onerous choices for judge.

OK, time to stop. I am not promising nirvana here. I am not even assuming we have "won" on S S. We have a long way to go on that.

I am saying that the straws in the wind are, for the first time since those damn polls didn't move in late Oct., (Ruy, you PROMISED they would break!) showing a bit of a shift in the wind. Maybe the smoke from Mordor is beginning to lift a bit. Maybe, as I think Churchill had it once, it isn't the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning. Or something.

I dunno what the Dems can do, though my hope is with the grass roots, not the suits.

But I do know that every failed Republican bid for power is a wonderful, wonderful thing to be treasured!

And pal while you're at it take a math lesson. They have the narrow majority, we don't. You don't get anywhere with this one. Take back the House in 2006, take back the Senate and White House in 2008, but talking about impeachment in the near run is simply stupid. We don't have the numbers, and even if we did we would be lowering ourselves to Myanmar levels.

Only an idiot or a troll would be advising this course right now. We are on the verge of making Bush choke on Social Security and you are advocating a Trotskyite Hail Mary pass. Sober up and have a couple cups of coffee. This isn't Belarus.

Iraq was suppose to be low hanging fruit.  Iran has about 100 million people who are intensely nationalistic.  They have not suffered under sanctions like Iraq did.  What kind of coallition will be able to build this time.  The "willing" are dropping like flies.  Alot of countries have business dealings with Iran.  We would really have to bribe other countries to help.

  MKC