RI-Sen: Easy Pickup

by Chris Bowers, Wed Jan 19, 2005 at 07:38:58 AM EST

As long as we have the right candidate, defeating Chafee will be easy as pie. From Hotline:A Mellman Group (D) poll for the DSCC shows Rep. James Langevin (D) leading Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) among regis. RI voters 52%-32% in the '06 race for SEN (Providence Journal). One doesn't need to have even heard of the Incumbent Rule to know that an incumbent at 32% is finished no matter how far away the election is. Chafee could make it easier on everyone involved and just switch parties. It is not as though Republicans will fight really hard to save him anyway.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Switch

You would think he'd switch to save his seat. Maybe he thinks he can get some kind of other GOP job if he loses.

by yitbos96bb 2005-01-19 07:41AM | 0 recs

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Apparently he promised his dad...

...who formerly held the seat, that he would never switch parties. A promise to a deceased parent may be more important to him than remaining a senator.

by Geotpf 2005-01-19 12:03PM | 0 recs

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Looking good...

We have now, according to polls, two real pick up opportunities. RI & PA. Woo hoo!

As Demlen, over at senatblue.blogspot.com said with regards to RI -- we'll have a new Democratic Senator from RI regardless of what happens.

by schweiz8 2005-01-19 07:57AM | 0 recs

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PA is wait-and-see

Sorry, but until the PA Dems arrive at a candidate, don't bet on it.

PA is a very weird state. Mind you, this is a state where people can vote Santorum AND Rendell and not really see any ambiguity about it. This is the state of Bob Casey and Arlen Specter.

It's a confusing place politically, and you don't hedge too many bets until you see the candidates.

Plus, there is some talk that the far-far right wing Club for Growth plans to run Toomey AGAINST Santorum in the primaries. So . . . I don't know what you have to do to impress those guys!

Generally, Pennsylvania votes for the guy who looks like he could kick your ass.

Or, failing that, the stronger of the two wimps (Specter vs Hoeffel for example).

Rendell wants Barbara Hafer. Hafer is former GOP, but is roundly considered a good human being and was excellent while in office as treasurer.

If Hafer runs, Santorum is cat food. I guarantee Hafer looks like she could kick Santorum's ass.

by jcjcjc 2005-01-19 08:25AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

I thought casey was considered the slam dunk candidate?

by bruh21 2005-01-19 08:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

Bob Casey, Jr obviously has a name to run on. He definitely gets more press.

But, until Hafer talk dies down, I wouldn't call him a "slam dunk".

Plus, Rendell is a true political boss. What he wants, he gets. After delivering PA for Kerry in a vicious defensive fight, the Dems will oblige.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/914316/posts

Sorry . . . it was the first news story that appeared on the search. Hehehe.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05017/443573.stm

And then an adult news source says:

"Rendell has spoken enthusiastically about Hafer as a prospective candidate and she has said she will announce her plans on the race in the next few months."

So . . .

As a Pennsylvanian, I like Hafer. I've voted for Hafer. I would vote for her again on ANY ticket.

I'm one of the Kerry-Specter Democrats. What can I say?

by jcjcjc 2005-01-19 09:27AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

What type of evidence do you have on a Club for Growth sponsored Toomey challenge to Santorum. I just do not see any real reason for that to happen, although I wish that it would. The Club for Growth seems to want to enforce ideological purity by targeting what they see as the worse offenders, and there are three dozen GOP Senators ahead of that list, I would imagine, including Chafee and Snowe. Unless you have some damm good cites, I am putting a CfG challenge to Santorum in the "wishful thinking" category.

by fester 2005-01-19 09:14AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

I really have to start bookmarking things when I see them. Dammit!

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a CFG threat as the way the GOP strong arms guys into behaving come 2006.

Santorum will probably need some threatning, because the Social Security issue could really bury him in western and central PA. If he loses older voters in those areas, Santorum won't break 40%.

Since Rendell will deliver Philly, Santorum has to achieve at least parity in the 'Burgh, and a victory in the mountains.

He doesn't have Specter's cross-over appeal that will allow him to actually win some of those pro-Kerry counties.

by jcjcjc 2005-01-19 09:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

I'm moving to Pitsburgh here in a couple months. I am definitely eager to make sure that Santorum does not pull even here in the 'Burgh!

by Matusleo 2005-01-19 11:50AM | 0 recs

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The Burgh? My condolences

Moving to Pittsburgh? Who did you piss off? Are you in witness protection?

Lord . . . Pittsburgh. Have you had the Primante Brothers' sandwich? If so, are you using some type of statin to control the resultant cholesterol?

And get used to living in a time warp. Pittsburgh is stuck in a mythical bygone era dominated by classic rock. There are a few very pronounced attempts to get beyond that, but they stick out uncomfortably.

If you want culture, you'll need to gravitate toward Oakland and the colleges. Then again, I've seen worse than Pittsburgh (the now-closed aquarium in Detroit comes to mind; it looked like a dungeon from a B-movie).

Make sure to take your kids (if you have 'em) to the Carnegie Science Center. They'll love it.

One final note: the word "yins". It's used in place of "y'all". In western PA, prepare to hear the language slaughtered as never before. Sentences such "All's yins gots t' do . . ." are not unknown. Especially if you make the mistake of stopping anywhere between Pittsburgh and State College.

So . . . enjoy Pittsburgh and western PA.

by jcjcjc 2005-01-19 05:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Burgh? My condolences... n'at

sheesh! Pittsburgh is not THAT backward... I have it on good authority that bell-bottoms will arrive -- for the first time -- very soon.

I grew up there in the 60's and was back for most of 2002. Seemed to me that most of the old Oakland scene had pretty much evaporated... some migrating across the river to the South Side, and the rest who knows where. The dominant newspaper (Tribune) is wholly-owned by the Republican Party and is written on a fourth grade level, the local economy was as much in the tank in '02 as it was in 1977... but because of the continued hemorrhaging of young talent, at least housing is still pretty cheap.

by PJBurke 2005-01-21 10:36AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA is wait-and-see

Okay, I see at Grassroots PA, a conservative website with a firm base in reality speaking about a possible challenge/dissatisfaction from the right with Santorum. This could be interesting if the Constitution Party gets itself organized again for a run.

by fester 2005-01-20 03:26AM | 0 recs

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Anywhere else?

Are there other states were Democrats have a good chance next time of picking up seats? I always felt 2004 was a crappy cycle, 2002 would have been excellent and 2000 and 2006 would be just as good.

by DaveB 2005-01-19 09:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: Anywhere else?

VA: If Warner goes for the seat -- it should be ours.

TN: If Frist leaves, then running Rep. Ford might be another pick up...ooh the GOP would hate that.

MT: You can always hope for the MT Dems to start-up-their well-greased engine to challenge Burns.

by schweiz8 2005-01-19 09:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: Anywhere else?

TN isn't happening if Ford is the candidate. A young ambitious black guy from Memphis won't fly in Middle/East TN

by ben114 2005-01-19 11:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: Anywhere else?

Point taken...he also co-chaired the national Kerry Campaign cand couldn't even deliver his own state. We can hold out hope though...

by schweiz8 2005-01-19 07:22PM | 0 recs

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A Bit Of Caution

DSCC polls tend to be a bit optimistic. Chafee won 57% of the vote in 2000 against what initially was felt to be a strong challenger. Notwithstanding that fact that he's a maverick, the Republicans will put resources into keeping the seat. It's too early to count him out.

by SLinVA 2005-01-19 11:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Bit Of Caution

I agree about DSCC polls being optimistic.

But there are a few things we should remember about the 2000 race. Lincoln Chafee's Dad had just passed away that year, and he had held the seat for twenty-four years. Further, the two DEmocrats vying to take Lincoln on basically destroyed each other long before the election came around.

And back then, the ugly face of the GOP was not quite as well known as it is now. If Chafee is tied to that ugly face, I expect he'll have a much harder time winning (unless he switches of course).

by Matusleo 2005-01-19 11:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Bit Of Caution

Seems to me that Linc Chafee has already gone a long way toward immunizing himself (both with RI voters and with the Republican Party) against being "tied to that ugly face."

In the end, however, residents of L'il Rhody are pragmatists, not ideologues. Chafee is popular, but if he can't deliver because he's out of favor with the party, then it won't make much difference that he's on the majority team if he isn't bringing any benefit of it home.

by PJBurke 2005-01-21 10:51AM | 0 recs

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Here Come the Indepedents

Ken "PrettyBoy" Mehlman and Karl Rove would answer the Chafee question like this.

Officially, they don't care...because he largely is most important voting for Republican leadership. They believe the Northeast is dying, and that population is moving to where they are stronger in the West and South. The RNC and other organs will put in money, but obviously Steve "All I want is" Moore won't be funding the Chafee in '06 campaign.

One thing I see as plausible is that he, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins join Tim Jeffords in the Independent category. The thinking being that it does not add automatically to the Democrats but it also would perserve the Republican majority ...unless other seats change hands.

No state screams out as reversing that overall trend...nearly all of the Republican seats up for reelection could become vulnerable depending on what happens this year.

by risenmessiah 2005-01-19 02:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Here Come the Indepedents

If that is their plan, they are idiots. Population has nothing to do with the Senate.

by Chris Bowers 2005-01-19 07:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Here Come the Indepedents

Let me rephrase that:

Suburban growth in the South and West (excluding Pacific states) trends Republican over the last few years. The attitude Bush and others have shown to poor showings in the Northeast is to relent, except in New Hampshire and carve out more of a base in the South and West.

The calculus is that since the West and South are growing, liberals will be swallowed up by immigrating folks from the North there . The discontinuity is that many of these people are from the Midwest and Northeast...but somehow digging their toes in the Arizona or South Carolina sand turns them into Republicans.

I think it's bogus too...but largely because the Republicans first solidified their positions by being regionalized and then taking nearly a stranglehold of the Great Plains and Mountain West, pushing out into the South and then treading into the Midwest.

But you tell me, even if Susan Collins, Snowe, and Chafee all went independent...the GOP still has the Senate by two seats. Where are we going to pick up new Senators?

by risenmessiah 2005-01-19 08:37PM | 0 recs

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Wait for now

I do think that Langevin would make a good senator and he would fight for election reform and stem cell research. However, Chaffee isn't a bad senator at all he doesn't vote trade (which is good) and he did vote against the tax cut and Iraq war resolution which is more than a lot of Democrates can claim. I don't believe that he'll swith parties he'll opt for independence status before he switches and that is what he is allready along with the rest of the republicans from the northeast. If Langevin wants to run then he should but I don't think the dems should spend unnecessary resources in RI when they can be used in more criticial states.

by jmalluck 2005-01-19 04:58PM | 0 recs