This one could possibly be leaning Democratic. Edwards has been massacring Wohlgemuth on cutting CHIP, taking lots of kids off health care. Wohlgemuth has been getting lots of bad press. He's leading her big time in money. Wohlgemuth has started putting Bush/Cheney on her signs to try and ride that wave (Bush will win the district with minimum 60% of the vote). That's her best hope. TX 17th isn't that dissimilar from the Oklahoma senate race, with a moderate (though Edwards is less conservative than Carson) Dem running against a totally insane opponent in an area that Bush will take handily.

At the risk of sounding lazy, it is hard for me to tally up all those different races and try to get some sort of sense as to what the Dem/Rep ratio might be in the House post November 2.  I would love some kind of map or graphic like the one you have for electoral votes -- either one that just makes predictions based on your outlook, or one that also includes a way to "toggle" different races to see how they might affect the totals.  

So in your spare time if you could work on that ... ;-)

Jim Matheson barely won in 2002. He's facing the same opponent this year (Jim Swallow), but this time with an anti-gay amendment on the Utah ballot, and a Presidential and gubernatorial election which will drive GOP turnout very high. He isn't taking this race lightly, which some claim he did 2 years ago, but he may be in some trouble.

It's difficult for me to get excited about all these D polls, because they basically mean that the Republican is leading, or at the very worst tied, in independent polls.

Someone at OurCongress was worried about Brad Miller in NC-13. His opponent is well-funded and very strong.

I guess there hasn't been any polling. Renner is running a strong campaign, along with Bean, but I'm surprised that Todd is now speculating that they may win. Maybe this will cause the IL Dems and the DCCC to toss them a few more dollars.

Have you heard anything about whether or not Teresa Daly is leading in MN-2, as someone here claimed?

Dave Thomas in CO seems to be running into some bad  news.

in Long Island.  Sabato's crystal ball even has that as lean Republican.  He got elected against an abysmal incumbent and now the is his first term reelection.  He needs help.

Not SERIOUS worries here.  Just worth watching.

AR-2 (Snyder): Worried mostly because his opponent has outraised him to date.  Of course, Snyder is notorious for this, so perhaps we shouldn't be worried.  But, he does have a serious opponent.

FL-2 (Boyd): Boyd at least has some strong competition.  He's still favored in my book, but it's worth watching.

IN-9 (Hill): He has the same challenger as he did in 2002.  He's survived tough races in the past, but with a conservative district, you just never know.

IA-3 (Boswell): Once again, same challenger as in '02.  Republicans must really buy into Newt's "if you get above 40%, try again."

NY-1 (Bishop): See above.

NC-13 (Miller): I forget who it was, but somebody posted that they feared he might have a little trouble.  His opponent has effectively taken the free trade issue off the table, from what I've heard.

ND-AL (Pomeroy): He always has close races, and you just never know when North Dakota decides it's had enough of an all-Dem Congressional delegation.  (His opponent's been competitive in fundraising, too.)

Don't know if you agree with me on all these, but at the very least these are more competitive than some of the Republican-held seats you have listed, IMO.

sad to say, but since we failed to challenge one new district in texas (now held by jim turner), and keeping what delay did down there in mind, i don't think we're going to have much a net gain this year.

we're going to lose five seats down here in texas, and keeping in mind we need a gain of 12 to take the majority, EVERYTHING will have to break our way (the bean race, the schrader race and other relative long-shots).

it would be nice if we could keep at least two texas democrats in office in spite of redistricting.

It's about time that folks started paying attention to what's going on here in VA-10. We have an outstanding Democratic candidate who's going to give Rep. Wolf a run for his money. Check out www.socasforcongress.com for more info because we definitely have an opportunity for a pick-up.

Assuming the toss-up races split 50/50, it looks like a net gain of 6 for the Democrats, give or take a seat or two. Not enough to make Pelosi speaker, but it might make it a bit harder for the Rethugs to hold votes open and twist arms to get the results they want.

To get control, we'd have to hold the Texas Five and retake 11 of the 16 GOP-held toss-ups, as well as the likely pick-up in CO-3. Not likely, but there's an outside chance of it if Kerry ends up winning in a walk.

I've steadfastly held on to the notion that THIS is the year in which we can pull off the demotion of DeLay and his cohorts to minority status.  I know, I know, about all those safe seats out of reach, but especially with the polls still LOOKING so close, the Democratic turnout is liable to be phenomenal this year - and that will include people who've never voted or not voted in years.  I will not be surprised if there aren't several shockers in our favor, where a 62-38 R winner in 2002 gets knocked off, and if I'm right about the turnout, it's not unreasonable to hope that fully 85-92% of the Toss-Ups go our way.

Here's what I wrote 4 months ago on the subject, and I wonder if others might agree.

If anybody knows of an election night get-together in Seattle or Kitsap County Washington among progressives especially interested in the race for the House, please let me know about it.

Walker

Those who were royally pissed and thoroughly enraged when Rodney Alexander switched parties 15 minutes before qualifying ended can now turn that rage to love by contributing to Zelma "Tisa" Blakes (http://www.blakesforcongress.com).  Blakes was dismissed early on as a housewife and political newcomer.  Well, now that she's climbing the polls, those people are eating their words.  This terrific candidate is gathering huge support throughout the District, and she's been featured in the media ranging as widely as Louisiana Public Broadcasting to Jet magazine to the New York Times.  Read about her success on the blakescampaign diary on http://www.dailykos.com.  And PLEASE open your hearts and your wallets to send this dynamic young black woman to Washington.

Things are heating up here in OH-3.  With over nearly 50,000 new voter registrations in OH-3's Montgomery County alone, most of them directly attributable to Dem efforts, the numbers tell a strong story.  Remember, this district started with a 47.4 DPI, and that averages in Gore abandoning Ohio on Oct 4 in 2002, and the short, underfunded race for this seat last time. We're in the field polling now, for our baseline before TV starts next week.

For those who don't remember, I am also running against the only member of the US House to actually have worked for an outsourcing company.  His former employer, Rajesh Soin, is still one of his biggest supporters.  And no wonder, my opponent has a voting record of 100% support for outsourcing and offshore corporate headquarters.

The incumbent is a first-termer, with a dismal record.  He votes 98% of the time with Delay, but occasionally moves to the right of the Republican majority (voting against additional funding to combat AIDS in Africa.)  He's a sponsor of the Marriage Amendment, as well.

The RNCC has him on their "most vulnerable list" and his helping him with money.

Here in Ohio, Kerry is running TV spots focusing on outsourcing.  It's a white-hot issue here, where we are still losing jobs.  If I can let voters know this guy's history, no amount of RNCC money can overcome the reality of his record.

Thanks to all of you who spread the word!

Come to Ohio!  Work in this critical swing district! (3 of my counties have changed Congressional party hands 4 times in 12 years... prompting one Harvard study to call them part of a "whiplash" district.)

Your support... with funds, volunteer hours, and encouragement... make all the difference.  Visit us often at www.jane04.com.

Thank you.

Recent polling shows a 16 point lead for Dems in this district, on a generic Congressional ballot asking whether voters would support a Dem in Congress or a Republican. Jim Gerlach is a first-termer with less than 20 percent name recognition. And enthusiasm on the ground here for Murphy is palpable.

If you have any cash at all to support a key race that can take back a seat for progressives, this is the one. Donate at www.loismurphy.org.

It's time to move this one into the tossup category. Bean's latest internal polling show Crane 46, Bean 44. She is still building name recognition and she's been endorsed by the conservative Chicago Tribune, which should wake up a lot of their Republican and independent readers.

What I want to know is, what will the ramifications be when on November 3rd, all the assumptions and preciousness of the DCCC and other advocacy groups will have been proved wrong? Will they still continue to ignore good races that deserved attention? Will those who faced the odds alone give the finger to the establishment and say, "Howz about THAT!"  I sure as hell hope so. It's like the goddam mafia out there.

The Cynthia Matthews vs. David Dreier race has heated up considerably.  Even a lot of Republicans are angry at Dreier and planning on crossing over to vote for Matthews.  (see www.firedreier.com)

Cynthia Matthews is a lesbian who is very "out", unlike Dreier who has consistently supported anti-gay legislation.  The Advocate had an article on the race: http://advocate.com/html/stories/924/924_matthews.asp

Best thing is, she has a very good shot at winning!

Contribute to help rid Congress of David Dreier here: http://www.matthews4congress.com/help.html

Or here:
http://actblue.com/list/bluedog3#matthews

Or here:
http://actblue.com/list/bluedog2#matthews

Hate to say it, but this one is over.  The revelation today that promising candidate Samara Barend's "campaign manager" is the one who rec'd the pilfered papers from her State Senator opponent(this has become a notorious issue, covered from "The Times" to "Newsday") is a final nail.  Republican Randy Kuhl will win, 2-1.  The only remote chance the Democrat has, I believe, would be to publicly--very publicly--dismiss her "Campaign Manager," publicly apologize to the Kuhl family, reiterate nonetheless that we run for office we do set ourselves open to scrutiny, andc pledge--and request--that the final 10 days be devoted to THE REAL issues affecting the Southern Tier and Monroe County.  Still, I think you can write this one off. A shame...such a promising young candidate.  Next time:  Mark Assini, the admittedly conservative Republican fellow who lost the primary to Mr. Kuhl!

Karen McCarthy's district is in big trouble.  Missouri's 5th District has long been a Dem stronghold, including the core of Kansas City, plus Independence and most of Jackson County - Harry Truman territory.  While redistricting and suburban growth has added many Republicans to the district, it still the Dems to lose.

The Dem candidate is Rev. Emmanuel Cleaver, a popular former mayor of KC and revered leader of the  black community.  However, his Republican opponent is within striking distance.  

Jeanne Patterson is the wife Cerner CEO Neal Patterson (Cerner is a big healthcare IT company based in KC).  So far she has pumped $3 million of her own money into the campaign.  A barrage of negative attack ads has made here very competitive in very Democratic district.

Coverage of the race is here...

http://blogkc.com/archives/category/politics/mo-5th-district/

There's a House race in California where the challenger has outspent a sitting four-term incumbent - Richard Meyer versus Mary Bono.  He's spent over a quarter million dollars on his campaign.  He's talked with 20,000 people personally and has sent over 150,000 newspapers out to his district.  He has campaign signs, radio ads in Spanish, and TV ads all over the District.  More importantly, Meyer has focused a lot of time and effort in the largest city in the district (Moreno Valley), where Bono had a district office and pulled it out of there.  Meyer's taken full advantage of that.

This has flown under the radar, on purpose, but things might be closer than expected.  It's a good year for Democrats in California and this race just might shock some people.  

It may not be the best design, but because I couldn't find anything comparable, I cobbled together this tracking table which lists every 'race' in the country.  The prognostication column is largely taken from ActBlue, but includes some more optimistic assessments from this site.  Included are the percentage received by the incumbent party in 2002.  Of course those are pretty meaningless in Texas.

Enjoy - and comment about any races at all.