Newsweek poll shows Kerry up by 6 with Independents

by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Sep 11, 2004 at 11:48:16 AM EDT

Here's an interesting comment from Alan Abramowitz regarding the just released Newsweek poll:

That's right, Kerry is up by 1% among RV's. Anyway, if a poll tells me that Kerry is leading Bush by 6% among Independents, I'll tell the world that poll says that Kerry is going to beat Bush.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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this is even better

...when you consider Nader has 7% of the independent vote in the poll, and 9% are undecided. A vast majority of those votes will wind up voting Kerry on election day, so his actual lead is probably about 6-7% bigger.

by dwbh 2004-09-11 01:11PM | 0 recs

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Bush Under 40

Bush under forty with independents is a very good sign. Of course, self-described independents tend to vote at a rate far below self-described partisans.

by Chris Bowers 2004-09-11 01:38PM | 0 recs

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National Exit Poll?

Is that the same as the actual voter turnout in 2000? I'm not exactly sure what you mean.

Could you please provide a link to these Abramowitz comments?

by Inkan1969 2004-09-11 02:05PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: National Exit Poll?

According to Zogby's 2000 exit polling (from the link in the previous post):



                Democrats    Republicans  Independents

1992            34%          34%          33%

1996            39%          34%          27%

2000            39%          35%          26%

I don't know what VNS got in 2000, and I'm not sure of the question that you are asking.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-09-11 04:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: National Exit Poll?

oh, wait, these comment, I don't have a link, it was a back and forth on a listserve.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-09-11 04:06PM | 0 recs

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Last 7 polls say the Reps have greater party ID

There are now seven polls in the last two weeks that either reported Party ID or had someone back it out. They show the Republicans with an advantage averaging 4.6 points.



Newsweek  Rep + 4  9/9-10

Dem Corps Rep + 0  9/6-9

CBS       Rep + 1  9/6-8

ABC       Rep + 6  9/6-8

Gallup    Rep + 10 9/3-5

Time      Rep + 4  8/31-9/2

Newsweek  Rep + 7  8/31-9/1

So there's no doubt in my mind that the Republicans have an advantage in Party ID at the moment. It's not sampling error and it's not bias due to the particular days the polls were conducted or the incompetance of particular pollsters.

The implication of the argument that Party ID is very stable is not that this shift should be ignored. If party ID is usually very stable, Bush is going to win.

Personally, I think there's a good chance that this shift in party ID is ephemeral, part of the convention bounce. Is party ID stable or not from month to month? I've hunted around for info about Party ID before and after conventions, without much success, except that Democracy Corps found little change in Party ID following the Democratic Convention. The Dems gained something like 4 points in Party ID over the course of 1996 according to Pew:
http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

Is there a good study of Party ID from month-to-month that would say whether shifts like this are likely to persist or whether blips are common? I haven't been able to find one. I think political scientists are mainly interested in long term trends in Party ID over years and decades, and that the short term dynamics haven't really been studied.

by Chef Ragout 2004-09-11 10:33PM | 0 recs

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newsweek poll

you can spin this any way you want but right now bush would win the election going away. if the polls are withing 3 points on eletion day and we get a big turnout kerry will have a chance. .none of this polling means a thing until after the debates,if bush does well he wins.game over. the newsmedia
seems to want to convince the people bush is way ahead and that will supress democtratic turnout.
pray for this country because we`ll need it with 4 more years of bush!!!!!!!!!!!

by EXBUSHVOTER 2004-09-12 07:13AM | 0 recs

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National Polls are Meaningless...

...it's the Electoral Vote that counts. State polls are the only ones that matter. As mentioned in another thread, Bush has strengthened his lead in many very safe states, and several states that were very safe for Kerry are now slightly less safe, but still sure things. The states that are up for grabs are STILL up for grabs-in fact, depending on which way the winds are blowing this hour, Kerry could win if the election was held TODAY.

I think I've figured out why.

Bush has the fundies, and he has rallyed them recently. They mostly live in safe states for him.

Bush has raised some questions about Kerry's trustworthyness or something (SBVFT and all that). This hurts him slightly overall. HOWEVER, economic concerns over ride such worries-and many of the close states are rust belt states where economic concerns are paramount.

by Geotpf 2004-09-12 11:02PM | 0 recs