Key State Legislatures

Post-census redistricting battles are still seven years away, but in order to cement what by then better be a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives they are at least worth a glance right now. Eight republican controlled states hold the key:
Congressional Delegations
	Current      Possible
Arizona     2	       5
Colorado    2	       4
Florida     7	      15
Michigan    6	       9
Ohio	   6	      11
Penn.	   7	      12
Texas	  12*	      17
Virginia    3	       6
Total	  45	      79
*Although the current Texas congressional delegation was elected under an old-Democratic produced map, the new map could cause a shift of up to five seats in the congressional delegation.

Better maps in these eight states could result in a shift of thirty-four seats, enough to cement a congressional majority won during our current decade throughout the entire next decade. While we certainly can win a significant amount of them back without better maps, all of them would become easier if we drew the lines. Here are the compositions of these eights assemblies / legislatures, along with the party that controls the Governorship (in 2000, Governors in all eight states were Republicans):

Republican Advantage 
	 House	  Senate   Governor
Arizona   39-20-1    17-13	     D
Colorado  37-28      18-17	     R
Florida   81-39      26-14	     R
Michigan  63-46      22-16	     D
Ohio	 62-36	   22-11      R
Penn.	112-94	   29-21      D
Texas	 88-61	   19-12      R   
Virginia  61-37-2    24-16	     D
I am not certain what houses in each state control the Congressional map, so maybe readers can fill me in on that one. Still, no matter what the laws are, at least forcing a compromise map is essential in every single state. In most cases, this would require taking back the governorship and/or Senate, all of which are possible. (Actually, now that I think about it, do Governors have any say in the maps at all?)

I do not like gerrymandering, but until more states pass redistricting laws such as Iowa has done, we need to use every tool available to us. The current Republican majority is supported in large measure by the series of maps Republican controlled states drew following the 2000 census. If we can do the same, the next generation will grow up under progressive governance. After all, the House Democratic caucus is one of the few areas of the national party solidly controlled by our progressive wing.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

Texas
Texas' Congressional delegation is 16-16 (it was 17-15 before Ralph "I was a DINO before Zell Miller could spell DINO" Hall switched sides). Even under the 2001 map, Charlie Stenholm and Chet Edwards had narrow wins. Both of those districts would have gone GOP if either incumbent had stepped down. An 18-14 GOP split would not have been unrealistic or particularly unreasonable under that map.

That said, there's no way that a 21-11 GOP split (if all five endangered incumbents lose) is fair or representative. Getting to 17 Dems requires holding all five redistricted seats (Lloyd Doggett is safe) plus a pickup. Much as I want to see that, I'm lowering my expectations and hoping to be surprised.

The Texas House is really 88-62. Ron Wilson was ousted in the March primaries and resigned his seat last week, so for now it's technically 88-61. However, Wilson was a key ally of Speaker Tom Craddick and the most disliked Democrat in the state, so his early departure is a good thing. His replacement, Alma Allen, faces no GOP challenger, so that seat will stay Democratic.

by kuff 2004-08-09 09:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas
The count in Texas is even worse  
than you report.

In the March Democratic primary,
the real Democrat incumbent, Ciro
Rodriguez, was upset by Cuellar,
a challenger who had held a high
appointment in the administration
of Gov. George W. Bush.

Despite an amply funded campaign
(ask Nadir where to get support for
a race against a real Democrat),
Bush's friend Cuellar lost the election.

Then Cuellar "won" the re-count when
a few hundred "uncounted" ballots
materialized in his home county.
But allegations of widespread fraud
were dismissed by Texas judges.
(Take it to the Supreme Court ! ! !
Or, on second thought, maybe not.)

It wouldn't take a "Louisiana Purchase"
to get Cuellar to caucus with Republicans
in January if the House is narrowly split.

In fact, if Bush wins, I'll be surprised if
Cuellar finishes his term as a Democrat.

The next election -- 2006 -- will probably
see the then-incumbent Cuellar (R)
challenged by former Cong. Rodriguez (D).

Until then -- we wuz robbed.

by Woody 2004-08-09 01:12PM | 0 recs
State house & senate
Among those states you've listed (AZ, CO, FL, MI, OH, PN, TX, VI), during the 2000 redistricting, I don't recall any of them being anything other than Republican trifectas, except for a Dem Senate (by 1 vote, iirc) in Colorado (and you can see the beneficial effect that had).

All these states have different rules, so this isn't a given. But I think you are right, with at least a Dem governor in 4 of those states currently, if that remains the case in 2010, redistricting would likely advance a Dem majority.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-09 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Key State Legislatures
(Actually, now that I think about it, do Governors have any say in the maps at all?)

NCEC, funded in part by the DCCC, has the state by state redistricting process.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-09 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Michigan
See, so it's places like that, that the national Dems should get involved.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-09 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: NCEC site
Right, but I doubt the state process that it describes is incorrect.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-09 03:13PM | 0 recs

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