There has been speculation as to what tone the GOP convention will take and what the theme will be. Of course the Democratic convention was such to introduce Kerry to the American voters whom many did not have a clear idea. It was largely a mega-bio of John Kerry rather than an laundry list of proposals and ideas with some red-meat thrown in there to stir up the partisans.

Bush, on the other hand, does NOT have to introduce him or Dick Cheney to the American public as we are more polarized over him than any President in recent memory. Perhaps since the 1968 election have Americans been so emotionally connected to events in the world or as much interest in this election early as there is today.

Bush basically has three choices for the convention.

1. It will turn into a negative fest similar to 1992 where most of the speeches center around attacking John Kerry specifically or making it clear that they are comparing him to President Bush. While this will stir up partisans it likely will backfire as a way to improve Bush's poll standings. Bush does exceptionally well among Republicans, 93% in the last poll, but poorly among non-Republicans especially independents a key swing group.
2. He will concentrate almost exclusively on a potential second-term. This, I believe, is the likeliest scenerio as there is little for Bush to talk about positive with the first administration.
3. He will try to put as positive a spin on the last 3 1/2 years as they can despite virtually every poll out lately showing widespread dissatisfaction with Bush's policies. The reasoning behind this scenerio as it tries to blunt and answer much of the criticism that the administration has endured.

The only scenerio that I see Bush being able to get any bounce, if any, from the convention would be #2, as it would temporarily shift people out of the mindset of the here and now. However it would likely fade just as quick as the campaign heated back up and people were again refocused on the problems at hand.

If Kerry got little or no bounce from the Democratic convention Bush will have a harder time getting one from his. Kerry had more potential room for a bounce because people knew less about him. Everyone knows Bush and virtually everyone has a firm opinion of him. If all goes well for Bush for his convention he might be able to regain a 50-50 poll standing with Kerry since he is now consistantly falling behind even in FOX polls. However it is unlikely that he will develop a large steady lead enough to erase doubts about his reelection prospects.

He is in far worse shape than any incumbent reelected in modern times (except for maybe Truman who was never elected in the first place) but in marginally better shape than his father in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. However both Carter and Bush I went down to landslide defeats. It is doubtful that Bush nor Kerry would  be able to win this year by a landslide but Bush is in far worse shape than an incumbent president should be.

One nit picky note: There's a silent h in afghanistan. Normally I wouldn't be anal rententive about spelling, but when you're doing a word search, its essential.

However, I bet you'll still find no references to it.

I am perfectly willing to be outraged and add this to the things I hate about Bush if I knew the context

are these numbers any better or worse than those on Kerry's site or previous candidates?