read all about it here
http://realmichaud.tripod.com/2004Blog/

Kerry 50.8%, Bush 46.5% - not sure about the electoral college, but a 4% victory SHOULD be enough to do it.

Ben P

49.8% Kerry, 47.4% Bush
Badnarik out-polls Nader 2:1.

Major party undecideds break 67% to Kerry (it'll be more like 4 Kerry, 2 Bush, 1 Badnarik, 1 Other - but the 2:1 Kerry:Bush ratio is the important part).  

Current likely voter models are off by at least 1.5%, due to a massive swing in partisan enthusiasm (many Dems who dejectedly stayed home in 2000 will turn out; many Reps who voted in 2000 won't), a surge in voter registrations (folks who necessarily did NOT vote last time but who ARE energized about the election), and a significant swing in overseas ballots from angry anti-Bush expatriates and an unhappy military (small increases in Kerry votes over Gore; large decline in Bush votes).

80% chance: Kerry wins all Gore states + Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire.  296-242

20% chance: Kerry wins Ohio.  If Kerry wins Ohio, he will also win West Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri.  343-195

Or Alabama.

Or Maryland.

Or the planet Zorton in the Flaegh galaxy.

Or wherever the hell you are from.

Kerry 342 EV, 51.1% PV
Bush  196 EV, 46.0% PV

Kerry wins the Gore states, plus AZ, OH, MO, NH, and (narrowly)WV.  Kerry also narrowly loses NC and VA.

Texeira's "Democratic Majority" arrives earlier than expected.

Kerry 322 (50.8%)
Bush 216  (48.7%)
Nader     <.2%

So, Kerry 55, Bush 43, others 2.

Where's the evidence that my feelings aren't as good a predictor as polls?

Simple math:

Last election was a tie-so any loss of support (even if it's realatively minor, means Bush loses).

A few people who voted for Bush last time will vote for Kerry this time (large numbers of Arabs and small but significant numbers of Log Cabin Republicans, Moderate Republicans, Moderate Independents).

Almost nobody who voted for Gore last time will vote for Bush this time.

The Democratic GOTV machine is working overtime this time; plus Democrats are more motivated this time that last.

The Republicans will have a hard time getting moderate Republicans and Fiscal Conservatives to care enough to vote (plus some will vote Kerry, or Badnarik).

Nader is much less strong, with a significant amount of his former support going to Kerry and nearly none to Bush.

Add all that up, and I can't see Bush winning.  Whether it's a squeaker or a landslide is up in the air, but I think Kerry is going to win one way or the other.

Kerry - 51.1%
Bush - 47.1%

In an election so close with differences so stark, few who show up will be willing to vote for a 3rd party/Ind candidate.

Kerry - 294 EVs (Gore + OH, NH, NV, WV)
Bush - 244

Kerry loses unexpectedly by razor thin margins in FL, VA, NC, AR, AZ, and TN.  

Bush will "win" Florida by fewer than 10,000 votes.  Voting irregularities in the state will be so widespread and egregious that multiple federal investigations will be launched, leading to several indictments and resignations.  Jeb Bush will not run for Pres. in 2008.  

The election-eve polls show Bush and Kerry dead even, which significantly the urgency of GOTV efforts among panicking Dems.  But luckily for Dems as well--because GOP voters will also vote in droves--undecideds break 70-30 against Bush.    Turnout helps Dems significantly downballot as well.  Dems pick up Senate seats in IL, CO, OK and AK while only losing GA and SC.  Dems win the runoff in LA in December and the MA special election in Spring '05 for a 50-49 (51-49 with Jeffords) control of the Senate.  Unfortunately, the Freepers have a locked-in advantage with gerrymandered districts for us to have much of a chance of winning the House back, although there's I think a 25-30% chance this election could turn in the end into an anti-GOP incumbent Reaganesque election.  In which case, Kerry's popular vote totals could reach upwards of 53-54% and his EV totals could swell to nearly 400 as narrow states like VA, NC, TN, and AR in the South and AZ and CO in the West join the Kerry bandwagon.

In the end, my prediction is similar to Chris', except that I don't think Kerry will take Missouri (thus stopping Missouri's string as a bellweather state) and Nevada, but that he will get West Virginia.  

So, Kerry takes the Gore states plus FL, NH, OH, and WV for a total of 316 electoral votes to Bush's 222.

I don't really track the popular vote, so the most I can say about it is that Kerry will get more popular votes than Bush.  As I wrote here, I expect Kerry's victory to be decisive, but not a landslide.

If there is massive voter fraud (or other SUPREMELY dirty tricks, like actually faking a terrorist incident), then there is nothing we can do (other than win by such a landslide that that's impossible).

I think that if it ever comes out that this election was rigged, civil war will break out.  I hope the Republicans realize this too, and for the good of the country, make no attempts at such.  If the president wins re-election via frauduant means, his life expectancy will drop significantly.  I hope he realizes this.

Bush basically can't win (without supreme weirdness occuring) without winning at least two of them.

EV
wins Gore states
Kerry takes OH, Nevada
loses FL-

Theory

(1) An econmic slowdown has already begun and cannot be masked. Oil price increases will work their way into higher gas prices and home heating fuel prices by the Fall. In some pat of the country where home fuel prices are going to spike, the GOP will be as popular as a mild social disease. look for regional GOP losses at the state level.

(2) Bush has no cross over appeal. Gore voters are voting for Kerry. New voters are voting for Kerry. Nader is no loner important. Therefore Bush gets his same share as in 2000.

(2) The "there you again" moment is about to happen- but in reverse. Bush sis actually a good debater, because allot of people feel an affinity to his personaliy- but he has weaknesses and Kerry will exploit them. remember- gore was a bit of a political klutz, kerry is a pretty smoothe guy and has not lost the court room touch. the primaries may have sharpened him up a little too. Bush is a like an indoor cat- his skill s are their but dulled by splendid isolation.

Congress

Senate  Dems win contol, p/u net 3 seats
House Demans p/u net 7 seats-

Kerry has enough of a poular vote win to lev. moderate GOP house members into something of a governing coalition that will last about a year as GOP House members turn on their leadership.

That said, I agree he shouldn't be Senate Democratic leader. That position should go to someone who's in the middle of the Democratic party (which pretty much lets out any Democrat from a Red state).

A good Democratic leader should be more liberal than DLC Democrats like Sens. Clinton, Lieberman, and Feinstein, but not as liberal as Sens. Kennedy or Feingold.

Kerry would've been good, but I don't want to even think about the possibility of four more years of Bush/Cheated, so I'm going to assume Kerry defeats Bush in Nov. Still, that leaves quite a few good candidates, such as Sen. Boxer or Schumer.

You mean 49.97% of the popular vote, right? 295 E.V. is 54.83% of the electoral vote by definition.

Kerry   49%

Bush    46%

Badnarik 2.5%

Nader    1.5%

Others   1%

Kerry  280

Bush   258

Senate remains 51R-48D-1I. (Dems pick up IL, AK, CO but lose SC, GA, and one of NC, LA, or MA special election.)
Dems pickup 4 House seats, not enough to regain control

Outside chance of a Dem landslide, picking up the Senate in the bargain.

Kerry wins New England, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DC, OH, MI, FL, NC, SC, VA, WV, IL, IA, MO, TN, AR, WI, MN, HI, CA, OR, NV, NM, AZ, WA, CO

Kerry: 269
Bush:  269

I predict that the 2004 election be very similar to the 2000 election in a sense that most the electoral votes will end up the same.  

The only difference is that NV and NH will swing Kerry this election and thus will make the electoral vote tied.

Kerry has had a lead in the polls in New Hampshire over the last few months and will easily take it.  Nevada will be a close call this election and the polls have shown it.  It will be a close call all the way up to November but I think Kerry will take it.  

Critical States that Kerry must retain this election that are a close call are Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

If Kerry won Flordia or Colorado in this scenario, then the election would go to Kerry.

bush does ok in the debates and the media   declares him the winner because he didn`t screw up.he gets a dukakis like win and takes minn , iowa, nh,wisc and pa. away from democrats.also congress becomes more republican and in 4 years we will be fighting in iran and maybe korea  along with iraq.since we will be in a perpetual war for now on the republicans stay in power until at least 2016.maybe it`s all a bad dream!

Popular Vote
Bush  49.4%
Kerry 48.6%
Others 2%

Electoral College
Bush 261
Kerry 277 (Kerry wins all Gore states but loses Wisconsin and wins Florida)

Result: Kerry wins w/majority Electoral Vote, loss in the Popular Vote

This will come after another year 2000-like disaster.  Computerized vote totals will be disputed across the country, causing mass chaos.  Kerry will be elected President with enough electoral college votes but Republicans - completely ignoring Bush's similar election 4 years ago - will complain Kerry "stole" the election.

My prediction (hope) : undecideds won't be a factor,  the debates will tighten up the polls (because the media wants drama) and ultimately turnout will be significant - Blacks will turn out in force (usually democrats) and the 18-26 group (realizing the possibility of a draft, I think 26 being the cut off), will prove their lack of interest enlisting and vote against Bush.
they are the neglected demographic.  In the end I'm guessing

Kerry 50%
Bush 49%

but it will be contested so it won't be final until December.

Kerry will win all the Gore states minus FL, and he will add NH and CO. EV will be 273-265. Kerry will lose by paper thin margins in OH,FL,VA,NV,AK,MO,TN,WV and AZ.

Kerry will win all the states which Gore won in 2000 with the exception of WI. He will win NH by 5%, win IA by 2%, win FL by 3% and win NV by 2%.  He will Ohio by 2%, Virginia by 3%, Wisconsin by 1%, Missouri by 6% and Arizona by 5%.