Nader's Death Spiral Continues

by Chris Bowers, Mon Aug 30, 2004 at 01:52:59 PM EDT

Now that Nader is off the PA ballot, I recalculated the percentage of people who can and cannot vote for him. Considering the success of legal efforts either to have Nader removed from ballot or have his ballot petitions rejected, and the abject failure of legal challenges to have Nader placed on the ballot, Nader's ballot status looks bleak indeed. Unless he has actually been certified on a state ballot and no legal challenges remain, his status should be considered TBD. If his petition has been rejected, then he should be considered off the ballot. 
		     Off     On    TBD
% of US pop over 18    48.25  5.83  45.92
% of 2000 Nader Vote   36.44  5.90  57.66
Electoral Votes        239	    37	262
Nader has been verified on the ballot in six states where there no longer remain legal hurdles for him to clear: AR, DE, IA, MT, NJ and SD. Nader is off the ballot in 14 states: AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, IL, MD, MI, MO, OK, PA, NC, SC and TX. (source)

Quite a lot of territory remains to be determined, but so far Greens and Democrats have joined forces to rout Nader off the ballot. This is just one wing of a huge Democratic effort this year--an effort that seems to be dwarfing what took place in 2000--and I for one am enjoying watching it succeed. The state with the final ballot deadline is Minnesota, on 9/14. Much more will be known by then.

Incidentally, Badnarik will be on every single state ballot, with the possible exception of Oklahoma.

Tags: 3rd Parties (all tags)

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4 Comments

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And in 2008?
Nader won't go away soon, and even when he does, there will always be another Nader.  Democrats have expended resources keeping him from being a spoiler this year; I'd rather not see those resources lost in the future.

Hopefully, Democratic legislatures, especially those in states where Nader made the ballot, like Maine, will keep this effort in mind next session and adopt voting systems - like Approval - where even if Nader makes the ballot, he won't be a spoiler.

Of course, you'd think that given 2000, they'd have done that at some point in the last four years.

by Drew 2004-08-30 02:52PM | 0 recs
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Re: nader not a fac tor
Arkansas has become a marginal swing state, but not a crucial one.  If Kerry is close enough in Arkansas that Nader is a factor, he'll already be at 270+.

However, Race2004.net keeps an up-to-date list of Nader's status at the bottom of their front page, and they have him still active in swing states Florida, Ohio, Tennessee (probably a more pro-Kerry state than AR), Nevada, Iowa, Maine,  New Hampshire, and Colorado, as well as long-shots South Carolina, West Virginia.  In many of those he still has legal challenges left or has not had to submit signatures yet.

Nader can still be a factor.  Based on the last 3 weeks polls, the real swing states right now have to be FL, OH, NV, CO, MO, and TN.  Nader is still fighting in all of them except MO.

by Silent E 2004-08-31 05:35AM | 0 recs
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Re: nader not a factor
Your link is messed up. Try this: http://www.race2004.net
by Mathwiz 2004-08-31 11:05AM | 0 recs
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And in four years
If Kerry wins, the grass-roots work of Dean will be working busily on several issues of political reform, and the other groups will be working to support Kerry's re-election and their own agendas. And the Greens will be busy building their party. What can Nader say then that's relevant?
by CarolDuhart 2004-08-31 09:47AM | 0 recs

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