Proportional Allocation of Electoral Votes in Colorado?

This November, there will likely be an initiative on the ballot in Colorado to distribute its nine electoral votes proportionally according to the percentages of the statewide popular vote: The dispute involves petitions filed last week by the Make Your Vote Count campaign. It claims to have collected more than 130,000 signatures. If the measure is on the ballot and approved by voters in November, Colorado's nine electoral college votes would be apportioned on a percentage of the popular vote. No other state in the nation divides its electoral vote in that fashion.

With the proposal in place, Colorado, which likely will go into the Bush column, probably would give only five votes for Bush and four for Kerry instead of all nine for Bush, Owens said during an appearance on the Mike Rosen Show on KOA Radio. "I'm going to do everything I can to defeat it, including raising money for a (campaign) to oppose it," Owens vowed. "I already have been in touch nationally with significant groups because I'm not going to stand by and let the Democratic Party under subterfuge change Colorado's electoral college."

Ridder laughed at that reaction and said he personally hoped that California, along with all other states in the country, would adopt the same system.He said Colorado "has a fabulous history for reform. This is simply more fair and reflects the voters' intent more properly. Why would anyone fear that?"

Some Democrats argue that this campaign is a bad idea, because huge, solid Democratic states such as California and New York would instantly become Republican targets of similar campaigns. Certainly, if California were to split its 55 Electoral Votes, say 31-22-2 D-R-G and New York were to split its EV's, say, 19-10-1, it would be a major blow to Democrats in future elections. However, much the same could be said for Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and almost every state from the Mississippi to the Rockies on the GOP side. In fact, if every state distributed its electoral votes proportionately, in 2000 the electoral vote count would have been 265-264-9, Gore-Bush-Nader. In all likelihood, in this scenario the Gore campaign would have made a deal with the Nader campaign, exchanging five electors for a few legislative proposals. Gore would have won--no recount, no Supreme Court, no House of Representatives necessary. Granted, these laws would probably be easier to change in Democratic states, simply because there are fewer Democratic states.

I grew up in Upstate New York, a solid Democratic area in an even more solid Democratic state (at least when it comes to Presidential elections). Candidates barely ever campaigned there. Now, I live in Philadelphia, where everyone campaigns constantly. Frankly, that does not seem right to me. It would be nice if the entire country played a serious role in electing a President who will govern an entire nation. Given all of this, I am not sure what to think about this proposal, but it is certainly worth considering. Take the poll.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Why P.R.?
I've often wondered what would motivate a state to consider allocating its Presidential electors proportionally, and I've come up with two possible reasons:
  1. Politics - if, say, Republicans controlled the government of a solid Blue state, they could help their Presidential candidate by adopting P.R. vs. "winner-take-all." (And vice versa, of course, though Democrats seem much less comfortable with such bare-knuckles politics than Republicans.)

  2. Attention - this, I think, is the prime motivator in Colorado. As a Red state, it doesn't get much attention from either Presidential campaign, as zero electors are up for grabs. If it went with P.R., though, one elector might be up for grabs, and if the election is close (as this one is shaping up to be), it could easily be worth campaigning in a few such states.
I doubt a "swing" state would ever see P.R. in its best interest. Unless there were a mandate, or at least a strong incentive, to pass P.R., a swing state would always have more leverage by putting all its electors up for grabs.

Ironically, I doubt Colorado's particular proposal will help Kerry. Since it's a ballot initiative, it'll probably only pass if Kerry pulls off the upset, in which case it will, of course, help Bush.

by Mathwiz 2004-08-03 11:14AM | 0 recs
Don't do it
The problem with your argument, Chris, is that some states can make this change much more easily than others can.  The 3 West Coast states, for example, make it relatively easy to put such a measure before the voters, and the voters there - regardless of which party they support - tend to like things that sound like "reforms", such as open primaries, term limits, etc.  It makes them feel like mavericks when they vote for it.  In other words, these 3 states - which have recently been voting Democratic in presidential elections - are much more likely to enact such a change than would Tennessee, Virginia or Alabama.  

Dems will be happy if we get 4 Colorado EVs we wouldn't have otherwise had in 2004, bit it will haunt us when we surrender 45% of the West Coast EVs in 2008.  

by danielj 2004-08-03 11:22AM | 0 recs
Congress could provide incentives to switch
The current federal support for electoral (voting technology update) could be tied to enactment of P.R.  Other incentives could be provided as well.  

Congress could thereby create some uniformity in federal elections, such as specifying how to apportion E.V.s - hopefully with some decimalization to the 10ths or 100s of a vote.

They could also influence setting up non-partisan reapportionment in the same way, but big-time money would be required as an incentive.

Negative incentives could also be applied: if you don't reform, your federal highway funds are cut by x percentage, for instance.

by JimPortlandOR 2004-08-03 01:49PM | 0 recs
On the whole, I'd rather not.
I want to eliminate the electoral college, not reform it.

The Republican criticisms are correct: it takes away power from the state that decides to go that way, that power stemming from pooling votes to a winner-take-all.

Since the GOP is likely to win Colorado, I don't particularly mind if they do it there.

But they are likely to open up this same can of worms in California, and I'd be very much opposed.

On the whole, I'd rather not.

by clawed 2004-08-03 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: On the whole, I'd rather not.
(Although the cat may already be out of the bag, and the GOP will probably attempt this in every Democratic state in the near future.)
by clawed 2004-08-03 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: On the whole, I'd rather not.
The Republican criticisms are correct: it takes away power from the state that decides to go that way, that power stemming from pooling votes to a winner-take-all.

True, if the state is in play to begin with.

But in a state like, say, Oklahoma, which hasn't gone Democratic since 1964, P.R. would give the state more power.

OK currently has 7 electoral votes, but is so heavily GOP in Presidential elections the real question would be whether they divide 5-2 or only 4-3.

Admittedly, one EV isn't much to offer, but it's more than the state offers today: zero EVs.

OK has a Democratic legislature and governor today, but I doubt Gov. Henry has the cojones to call a special session to consider this - especially since he doesn't have someone like Tom DeLay to answer to.

by Mathwiz 2004-08-03 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: colorado
You're right, but of course it would take a Constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College. This is something Colorado can do right away.

As you mention, straight P.R. doesn't work well in states with a small, even number of electors (4, 6, or 8). Every election comes out even unless there's a landslide (although AZ was close to 4-3-1 in your example). So if this passes and Colorado loses a seat in 2010, they may want to repeal it.

by Mathwiz 2004-08-03 11:29AM | 0 recs
Integer numbers aren't the only solution.
decimal fractional votes could be assigned to reflect more accurately the popular vote:

4.5
or
4.68

by JimPortlandOR 2004-08-03 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: colorado
Actually, there are lots of possible distributions of votes under "proportional representation."  It all depends on the particular electoral formula (i.e. mathematical votes-to-electors algorithm) used.  As I've shown here, the ballot initiative actually being considered uses an electoral formula which doesn't even approximate proportionality, is kind of complicated and does a surprisingly bad job of helping Democrats.

I've posted a lot on this topic: if you're interested, you can read arguments for supporting the initiative here and here.

by The Bonassus 2004-08-03 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: colorado
It could be a similar algorithm to that which assigns the electoral votes via the Census. I don't really know what that is, off the top of my head, but IIRC from what someone told me, it might have something to do with geometric means.
by ark 2004-08-04 03:18AM | 0 recs
Re: colorado
I meant to say "seats in the House" not "electoral votes," although one is obviously related to the other.
by ark 2004-08-04 03:21AM | 0 recs
Proportional allocation is not the answer.
It could still lead to a popular vote winner becoming an electoral vote winner, and it would still allow small states a disproportionte influence in the result.

The Amar Plan is a better solution.  It would simply award a state's electors to the winner of the popular vote.  If enough states did this, it would ensure that the popular vote winner was also the winner of the electoral college.  Further, it would effectively give voice to voters in other states; they might not be able to swing their state, but their vote, in addition to those elsewhere, would be able to swing the Amar states - and the nation - to victory.

However, much the same could be said for Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and almost every state from the Mississippi to the Rockies on the GOP side.

That presumes that those states would adopt this plan.  Texas, Florida, and Ohio certainly wouldn't; they lean Republican, and their Republican legislators wouldn't give up those more-likely-than-not Bush votes.  Georgia, North Carolina, and Mississippi might be better targets, being controlled by Democratic legislators, but it's simply too much of a risk.

More likely than not, this plan will be adopted by well-intentioned blue states, not red ones, and by splitting their votes, they'll ensure that Republican presidents are elected for the forseeable future, no matter what the popular vote is.

by Drew 2004-08-03 11:38AM | 0 recs
It could still lead to a popular vote winner
becoming an electoral vote loser, I mean.
by Drew 2004-08-03 11:39AM | 0 recs
The Amar Plan
Interesting. I hadn't heard about that before. Thanks.

My only concerns would be that:

  1. It might be found unconstitutional, since it would let the other 49 states influence the electors of any state that adopts it (opponents would certainly claim an equal protection violation, and it could even be a VRA violation if the state that adopts it is disproportionately nonwhite). Of course, a state could still try - the worst that could happen is that the courts would shoot it down.

  2. It would run into trouble if any other state adopts an alternative voting scheme, such as instant runoff voting. I'm not totally sold on IRV (see my post at DailyKos for my preferred alternative), but I think we need some way to eliminate the spoiler problem, because we aren't going to stop future Naders by merely getting pissed off at them.
by Mathwiz 2004-08-03 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: The Amar Plan
I'm no expert, but I suspect the Amar Plan is constitutional.  Bush v. Gore helpfully noted that a state's voters have no right to vote for president, after all.  If they have no right to choose who wins their electors, why not allow other states' voters influence how they award their delegates?  

As far as the Voting Rights Act goes - I'd love to see South Carolina Republicans argue that the rights of black voters are abridged if the state's votes don't go to a Republican presidential candidate.  It'd be even more fun than seeing Georgia Republicans argue that the recent Democratic remap disenfranchised black voters.

I share your preference for approval/acceptability voting, BTW.  But wouldn't the approval votes for the candidate simply count toward its national total?

by Drew 2004-08-03 02:52PM | 0 recs
Proportional Allocation of Electoral Votes
Maine and Neb. allocate their Electoral votes in a similiar fashion. They give 2 votes to the overall winner and then divide the rest by winner of congressional districts.
by Rational 2004-08-03 11:52AM | 0 recs
Good small d democractic idea
The electoral college is a holdover to a less democratic age.  Rather than attempt amendment of the Constitution to switch to popular vote, this is the practical approach that stays within the existing structure but is far more democratic in nature.

I really don't like the emphasis on 'swing states' as currently practiced.  I want the candidates to battle whereever they have to for a majority.  

This would largely do away with the Red State/Blue State thing, which isn't good for national unity.

I hope it passes in CO and other states for the next election.

by JimPortlandOR 2004-08-03 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: propotional representation
I've liked this idea for a long time.  The important thing is to make this a national policy, so it does not become concentrated in either red or blue states to the advantage of one party over the other.
by Reid 2004-08-03 01:52PM | 0 recs
eeeek! Yucky can of worms.

Who could love the current Electoral College? Not me (I'm not from Wyoming or S.D. or N.D., etc.).

On the other hand, introducing some form of proportional allocation of votes for a winner-take-all office would be worse.

If you want to go down the proportional allocation road, the most reasonable course is to go straight to election by plurality of popular vote.

And then you pray that no election is ever close enough to require a recount.

by Ottnott 2004-08-03 03:04PM | 0 recs
PR vs winner-take-all
I think that the entire premise is skewed. PR is fine, if adopted across the entire country. But, it won't be. So, what you'll have, as someone said above, is the well-meaning blue states giving a bunch of EVs to the gop and a bunch of power-hungry blue states taking all of the gop votes. Only if the gop gives up their EVs would I agree to PR in the other states. In this one case, Colorado, I think that Kerry can take it, so I'd say no to the PR in Colorado.
by myjlf 2004-08-03 07:01PM | 0 recs

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