Post-Convention, Registered Voter, Two-Way Trial Heats Thus Far

by Chris Bowers, Mon Aug 02, 2004 at 01:18:21 PM EDT

Ruy Teixeira has definitely won me over when it comes to determining the most accurate most important trial heat models. For me, it is all about the two-way, registered voter trial heats:

ABC940 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/22-25 results)
Kerry 52 (48)
Bush  45 (49)ARG776 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3.5 (7/1-7/3 results)
Kerry 49 (49)
Bush  46 (45)CBS991 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/11-7/15 results)
Kerry 49 (49)
Bush  43 (44)CNN1,366 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/19-7/21 results)
Kerry 48 (49)
Bush  48 (45)Newsweek1,010 RV, 7/29-7/30, MoE 3 (7/8-7/9 results)
Kerry 52 (51)
Bush  44 (45)

With the exception of ABC news, it would appear that so far there has been no real bounce. But hey, so what? Kerry's still in a pretty damn good position, especially when you consider all of the discussion here over the weekend about how undecideds break in elections with incumbents. Kerry's lowest score is 49, and Bush's highest is 47. Numbers like these on Election Day would almost certainly spell Bush's doom. While I would like to see Kerry up by another three or four points, I'm still pretty happy when I look at these numbers.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Re: ABC poll's

I do not even believe you are real.

Go on denying that the last 120 national polls aren't accurate. Every single one, except for Fox polls and the Harris poll from early June, spells doom for Bush.

by Chris Bowers 2004-08-02 01:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: ABC poll's

The Party ID weighting is receving a little more attention tha normal, but complaints about an improper party weighting a mostly baseless. There hasn't been a major study on Party ID in several months, and as such there is no way to know how accurate either a 34-33 weighting or a 39-29 weighting is. I will say that the 34-33 weighting of the previous ABC news poll was representative only of the all-time high for Republicans produced in the Pew poll of October last year, and thus was dubious itself. 39-29 may appear dubious, but there is no new information out there to demonstrate its validity one way or the other.

by Chris Bowers 2004-08-02 03:32PM | 0 recs

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Harris Party ID

Back in late February, Harris pegged national party ID at 33-28-24 D-R-I. For a poll immediately after the Democratic convention to show the the Democratic lead is five points higher than this is hardly extreme.

by Chris Bowers 2004-08-02 03:48PM | 0 recs