Nader Ballot Access Status

by Chris Bowers, Mon Aug 02, 2004 at 08:50:48 AM EDT

Since I made a vow to ignore Nader, consider this my monthly post on the subject.

Via Delaware Dem and The New York Times comes the most comprehensive roundup of Nader's ballot access to date:

Personally, I don't think any of the legal challenges, especially the "possible" legal challenges, will succeed. I mean, when has a legal challenge by a minor party to either get on the ballot or in a debate ever succeeded).

Five weeks ago, after the Green Party convention, I predicted that Nader was finished and that he would make the ballot in fewer than twenty states. With about four weeks to go before all ballot deadlines expire, he has made it in twelve. At this point, it seems like he may very well come in under twenty--fewer than he had in 1996.

Also, expect to hear more about the coming challenge to Nader's ballot access in Pennsylvania, and the chaos surrounding his signature effort here. Steve Gillard has a good rant on the subject. If true, it is pretty despicable stuff.

Tags: 3rd Parties (all tags)

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Swing States

Too many swing states. Florida, Missouri, Nevada, West Virginia. That makes me nervous.

Boulanger

by Boulanger 2004-08-02 09:03AM | 0 recs

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Re: Swing States

Sure, he is on some swing states. However, if he is only on 20 or so ballots come September, the media will stop paying attention to him. He has almost no volunteers and activists this time around--there will be no Nader Super Rallies. He has almost no money, and he has not party supporting him. He will be on the ballot in some swing states, I don't expect much of an impact. Probably less than 1% everywhere.

by Chris Bowers 2004-08-02 09:07AM | 0 recs

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Take AZ off the list

From what I heard from AZ Nader supporters, they've dropped all legal challenges, citing the effort as too high of an expense. He won't be on the ballot here.

by zaea 2004-08-02 09:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Take AZ off the list

This is true. Two members of the AZ Dem party (challenge here must be by people, not parties) challenged the signature petitions turned in for Nader and the Naders said fine, challenge stands, we don't have the money to fight it. He is OFF !

by phalanges 2004-08-02 10:31AM | 0 recs

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My guesstimate is that...

fully half of the ~1% Nader will get are not taking votes away from Kerry, or Bush for that matter. These are the radicals that just want to express their discontent. As well as the Arab voters that hate Bush's Israel policy and don't like Kerry's any better.

The rest are taking votes away from Kerry, but easily a smaller amount than in 2000.

by clawed 2004-08-02 09:10AM | 0 recs

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Chris

Have we covered this Colorado ballot initiative yet?

by clawed 2004-08-02 09:17AM | 0 recs

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Colorado electoral vote measure

I have been following this for a while, and if it passed it could be a major help to Kerry. What I would like to know is what chance people in the know about Colorado give it should it get on the ballot. Since the Repugs will oppose it and Colorado usually votes Republican, would it have a chance?

by herodotus 2004-08-02 09:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: Colorado electoral vote measure

I don't know about that, but it looks like it will get on the ballot.

Imagine if that initiative decided the election... perhaps the Supreme Court would get involved again...

by clawed 2004-08-02 09:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: Colorado electoral vote measure

I've posted before on this here and here, and ColoradoLuis has a rant up on the subject today. From discussing the initiative with knowledgeable people in CO, it sounds like it will be on the ballot and has a decent shot at passing.

by The Bonassus 2004-08-02 10:03AM | 0 recs

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Vote swapping

Well, I see that Nader is on the ballot here in Indiana.

Excellent I say. If you know ANYBODY in a battleground state that wants to vote for Nader send them to my blog here. I will find a vote to swap for them since non-republican votes count for zilch in Indiana.

As for the news about his chances, I do agree. In 2000, so many people could have cared less about the election. A lot of people saw no difference between Gore and Bush. Nobody can say that this year there is no difference. Only the people that wouldn't vote for Kerry under any circumstance will vote for Nader this year (I hope).

-AA

by The Arrogant Ass 2004-08-02 12:51PM | 0 recs