New Mexico, 2004 & the Libertarian vote

If it goes according to plan, don't expect to see George Bush in New Mexico late this campaign season. This, week, Badnarik goes up with TV and radio ads (produced by Russo) throughout the state, here's one of them:Script of "Message for Conservatives" (Radio)
President Bush got elected by claiming to be a compassionate conservative. Would a conservative approve a half a trillion dollars in deficit spending in a single year? Would a conservative give us "Hillary Cares" socialized medicine, something even Bill Clinton couldn't do? Would a conservative approve of searching our homes without warrants or locking up American citizens indefinitely without even filing any charges? If you're fed up with electing Republicans who claim to be conservative and then govern like liberal Democrats, you do have an alternative. Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate for president. Libertarian Badnarik polled 5% in New Mexico in an August poll done by Rasmussen:Rasmussen Reports finds John Kerry with a 7-point lead over George W. Bush among New Mexico voters. Our first Election 2004 survey in the state shows Kerry with 50% of the vote, Bush with 43%, and Libertarian Michael Badnarik with 5%. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in New Mexico.Badnarik is probably on more of the ballots in battleground states than is Nader, but when will we see Gallup poll reality?

Tags: 3rd Parties (all tags)

Comments

2 Comments

New Mexico
New Mexico has significantly eased their felony disenfranchisement laws since the 2000 elections as well. Don't expect it to be one of the teb closest states this time around.
by Chris Bowers 2004-08-11 06:08AM | 0 recs
New Mexico, Badnarik, and Voting
A Few Things:
  1. Why is it that because NM (and other states) have relaxed their felon-voting laws that suddenly it will produce a lot of Democratic votes? While it makes sense that given that most felons are blue-collar and probably predisposed to voting Democratic, I can't imagine there are ALOT of votes out there. Also I can't imagine any candidate making a concerted effort to attract felons to the polls. What a way to scare off the masses if a story like that broke.
  2. 2000 was close but it should not have been. I don't expect NM to be close in 2004 - Kerry should win comfortably. It seems to be a common thread that Bush has done worse in states around the country, especially those that he lost in 2000. It has been a belief of mine for some time that Pres. Bush will have a harder time winning the popular vote than the electoral vote.
  3. As for Badnarik specifically, since Nader will not be on the ballot in NM this year, Badnarik will likely receive almost 1% bounce from that, simply by being the next visible anti-establishment candidate. Badnarik seems to be more organized this year than previous Libertarian candidate so we'll see. There is a good chance that Badnarik may do better than Nader in aggregate vote totals across the country. Most of the people who have voted for Nader in 2000 have lined up behind Kerry or Bush this time. Plus Nader has simply flamed out as a candidate. Much like Buchanan did four years ago after having decent showings as a Republican in 1992 & 1996.
by southerndemnut 2004-08-11 07:19AM | 0 recs

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