The full results are not out yet, and while I feel the registered voter model for Gallup is superior to their likely voter model, this is certainly disappointing:In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what's happening with the electorate.

50% equals Bush's highest standing in any poll with any methodology since the New Hampshire primary. Ugh.

In the comments to an earlier thread, The Election Before Election Day, an Anonymous Hero claims that a different poll shows Kerry 15 points ahead, but doesn't provide a link. Since I assume tht this is the same AH (Anonymous Hero) who frequiently posts polls without links, but who has always had accurate information, I am going to request that from now on s/he either stops posting the information, provides a link or at least explains where s/he is getting the info. Otherwise, her / his posts are both highly frustrating and bordering on copyright infringement.

Update Gallup is the only poll since Super Tuesday to show Bush either at or above 50. Specifically, the "likely voter" model in the Gallup poll is the only model of any poll to show Bush either at or above 50 since Super Tuesday.