If Cheney drops out, who would Bush choose?

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 07:09:07 AM EDT

During the 1992 campaign, a number of Republicans (among them, GW Bush) urged GH Bush to dump Dan Quayle from the ticket. GH Bush rebuffed these suggestions -- choosing loyalty over his own political benefit. GW Bush, claim his supporters, won't repeat the errors that led to his father's defeat.

Especially now that Bush looks like a loser, the VP's sudden 'heart problems' are somewhat expected because Cheney's an even bigger loser:

The CBS poll also found that 27 percent had a favorable view of Cheney and 47 percent had an unfavorable view. In the USA Today-CNN survey, 43 percent of voters had a favorable view of Cheney and 44 percent said they had an unfavorable view. Obviously Cheney drags the ticket down; and given the Republicans will do anything to win.... OK, so Bush doesn't drop Cheney, but what if, as the AP asks, Cheney comes to believe that he's become a burden on the ticket and withdraws perhaps citing health reasons?

McCain says, "I think the day that President Bush drops Vice President Cheney will be a cold day in Gila Bend, Arizona," so that sorta rules him out; but just who would George Bush choose?

Maybe Rudy Giuliani?

Take the Poll, it's on the main.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Rice or Miller

Are the only ones on the list that make sense. Even though 40% of the GOP is pro-choice, it will be a cold day in hell when the convention allows them to nominate either Powell or Guilini because of their positions on reproductive rights, despite the widespread popularity of the two candidates. Miller is used to campaigning, but Rice is a lot younger. In the end, I think they would go with Miller, if Cheney drops.

by Chris Bowers 2004-07-09 07:33AM | 0 recs

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It can get cold in Gila Bend

McCain says, "I think the day that President Bush drops Vice President Cheney will be a cold day in Gila Bend, Arizona."

It can get cold in Gila Bend in November...

by Michael Bersin 2004-07-09 07:38AM | 0 recs

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hopefully not

It would have to be someone who would not be a candidate for prez in 2008 and thus in Jeb's way

by kansasview 2004-07-09 08:19AM | 0 recs

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It would have to be McCain or Powell

I have been worrying about Cheney leaving the ticket since 2002, but at this late date, I don't think it could be done without mortally wounding Bush's campaign. Since it's been publicized that even Republicans think he should leave the ticket, no one outside of the hardcore would believe any medical excuse. It would be an admission of failure, and specifically the failure of the policy most identified with Cheney, the Iraq War. Bush cannot admit it was a mistake, or even that he made mistakes in its execution; it is the centerpiece of his campaign whether he likes it or not.

But, and this is a huge but, if Cheney does leave, the only candidates that would give Bush any chance of recovery from the mortal wound would be McCain or Powell, both are press/media icons, above criticism no matter what they say or do, and both would signal a welcome change in policy to swing voters.

by James Earl 2004-07-09 08:27AM | 0 recs

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Not who would Bush choose...

Bush was hand selected by the BushCo big-money guys in the GOP, as were Cheney, Powell, Rumsfeld and Rice.

When (IF) the real power in the party thinks Cheney should go, these people will make the decision, not Bush.

Who are these people? They are mostly GHWB's (daddy's) people, starting with Jim Baker.

What do they want, ideology or power? These are power guys, so they will want to win, irrespective of political positions.

They also want control, the prerogative of power. No loose cannons are acceptable.

What do these factors say about a choice?

Powell has mostly proven obedient to BushCo, and is still respected and popular. He could keep Bush out of trouble.

Guliani isn't controlled by BushCo, and too liberal for the base.

Rice won't help in the base or the swing vote (single, little visibility to electorate).

Miller is a loose cannon.

McCain is very independent, but ambitious. I'd guess he won't take it if offered, since winning isn't clearly in the cards and he's getting kinda old for a Presidential run four years from now.

Given the choices, Cheney's their best bet, accompanied by some 'special' tactics to insure they don't loose. They have the money to do what they think is needed to win, witness Florida 2000.

They will fight like hell, and they won't fight 'fair'.

by JimPortlandOR 2004-07-09 11:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: post cheney

I agree, but add to it that Ridge is a PNAC signee as well, so that keeps the neo-cons in the biggest position of influence.

That said, I don't know how much Ridge brings to the table electorally speaking. He's a joke of Homeland Security director.

The Republican party finds themselves in a tough spot right now. Their most popular faces are from the moderate side--Giuliani, Schwarzenegger, Powell--but their base has gotten so powerful that they're not going to be willing to give up that power readily to the moderates. They've been in purge mode for the last couple of years and they're already grumbling that the main speaking spots at the convention are going to moderates. If Cheney were to drop and the powers boosted Rudy into his place, the conservative wing might break away altogether.

by Incertus 2004-07-09 12:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: He won't drop out or be booted

Spot on analysis of Cheny. In addition, ihe has to be concerned about the possibility of indictment for various crimes he may have committed: the Plame affair, the fixed Halliburton Contract, etc. He must stay in power to head off any meaningful investigation that might lead to his hidden lair.

by ConcernedCitizen 2004-07-10 05:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: If Cheney drops out, who would Bush choose?

Well wasn't Jack Danforth his choice the first time? Why not try again to put him on the ticket? He's from a key state in the heartland (MO). He's been the administration's envoy re: Sudan (that should get extremely favorable coverage). He is (or soon will be) the Ambassador to the UN. Seems squeakly clean, and he should get in the way of anyone with '08 ambitions.

by ScottC 2004-07-10 07:46AM | 0 recs