Pew has just released more results

from the survey they conducted among 1,806 adults from June 3-13. Don't ask me why they took so long to release these findings, since they are among the most interesting results from any organization in months.

According to the survey, voters are significantly more engaged in this election cycle than they were either in 2000 or 1996. Importantly, most of this increase comes from Democrats and Independents, "who are significantly more engaged than they were at this time four years ago. By contrast, Republicans show a more modest increase in interest, with nearly all of the growth occurring among conservatives within the party."

In fact, liberal Dems are now paying as close attention to the race as conservative GOPers.

Further, in a finding that should make those still smarting from Nader's campaign in 2000 happy, far more people, especially Democrats and independents, believe there is a real difference between Bush and Kerry:

The rise in campaign interest is directly related to a growing sense of the election's importance. The contrast with the last campaign is striking. Four years ago fewer than half of Americans (45%) said it "really matters" who wins the election; today, 63% say the election result really matters. The shift in opinion has been especially notable among Democrats and independents. Fully two-thirds of Democrats and 56% of independents now say they election really matters; fewer than half in both groups expressed that view in June 2000 (46%, 39%).

This could lead to an enormous voter turnout, ala 1992. In that cycle, despite a significantly smaller and younger national population, the same number of votes were cast as in the 2000 election.

Another finding in the poll indicates that moderate / liberal Republicans and liberal Democrats are less satisfied with the two candidates than they were in 2000. Considering this, an anti-war libertarian campaign by, say, Jesse Ventura probably could have scored close to 1992 Perot levels.

However, despite this apparent opening for a third-party candidacy, I still stand by my position that Nader will not be a factor in this race, simply because he will be unable to make many state ballots.

This also indicates that moderate / liberal Republicans are ripe for the plucking by a Democratic campaign that can properly appeal to their libertarian tendencies.