The Doom Index

by Chris Bowers, Fri Jul 30, 2004 at 05:36:23 PM EDT

Fiddling around with some numbers tonight, I came up with a new, fun little toy: "The Doom Index." It is my belief that if Bush's unfavorables cross 50, then he is officially doomed on November 2. On the other hand, if Kerry's unfavorables surpass Bush's, then Kerry is officially doomed on November 2. If both candidates cross into "doom" territory, then Jesse Ventura will rue the day he didn't run as an independent.

I'll update the Doom Index every so often on the President 2004 page. For today, July 30, Bush's Doom Index is 6.5, and Kerry's is 7.5. The higher the number, the further away a candidate is from electoral doom. Right now, for example, Bush's unfavorables come to a central mean of 43.6 (6.5 from crossing 50) and Kerry's unfavorables come to 36.2 (7.5 from surpassing Bush). The Doom Index is calculated by taking the central mean of all unfavorable numbers conducted within the last two weeks.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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2 Comments

Shadow_head_small
raising bush's unfavorables
Actually the 'right direction/wrong direction' numbers are more valid that bush's approval ratings. The Doom Index (great name!) should probably use/incorporate those numbers. Most political experts seem to say that if the wrong direction numbers are at certain level, which they currently are, bush has no chance of re-election.
And, it's a less confrontational number than bush's approval/disapproval numbers, so you get a more honest answer.
by myjlf 2004-07-30 08:19PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: HELP IS ON THE WAY !
Link?

Are you the same AH who always posts polls without links? Please pos links from now on!

by Chris Bowers 2004-07-31 08:09AM | 0 recs

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