Pollkatz is back! It's the gas price stupid!

by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 10:34:49 AM EDT

Great day, Professor Pollkatz is back from haitus. I still miss the original chart of the Bush Index (I want my crossover), but everything else is back and updated, check it out.

And, as I've long suspected, the approval rating of Bush is directly tied to the price of gasoline. Whenever I've mentioned this hypothesis to people in person, they listen and then give a chuckle, probably thinking to themselves, 'yea, right, people aren't that simplistic'. Well, the fact that there are people for whom the price of gasoline means more to them than the politics of ideas is lunatic; but, here's the chart showing Bush's approval following the trendline indication of gasoline prices.

There's been a slide in the gasoline prices of late. At about 80 on the index is the resistance/support level. Mark this down: above 80, Bush's approval is good enough, but, below 80, he falls short. As the professor says:

This is important, folks. Bush's approval ratings go up and down with the cheapness of gasoline. It looks like maybe our election is in the hands of the Saudis. For more details on why the Saudis may "elect" to play this game, see Farenheit 9/11, now playing in a theater near you.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Silly!

Surely you jest....

(correlation isn't causation anymore today than it was yesterday)

Bush's approval ranking does follow the average daily temperate divided by the average daily rainfall in Portland, however.

by JimPortlandOR 2004-07-03 11:36AM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: Fundraising Questions

Based on what I know, and I'm fairly sure, I'll wing it: No, that's why Gore had ~6M leftover in 2000. Kerry has to spend it all before his nomination (that doesn't mean it actually has to have been used, just spent, ie paid for). Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. The DNC is already fully coordinating for post-convention, for Kerry.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-07-03 01:12PM | 0 recs

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Surplus Funds can go to party after nomination

An article at NY Times says this about unspent funds from Kerry campaign after accepting nomination:

"Any money left over after the campaigns pay expenses from the primaries can be handed to the national party committees, according to the Federal Elections Commission."

NY Times

An interesting question for Kerry is whether he will repay the loan he personally made to the campaign ($6M+) within the 2 weeks or so after the nomination, which is the deadline for this in law.

I think he should, but there are PR aspects of this. The alternatives for repayment aren't clear, but his salary won't hack it as President. His wife's funds cannot be used to repay this loan.

by JimPortlandOR 2004-07-03 02:26PM | 0 recs

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Gas price responds to Bush popularity

Unless I'm reading the graph incorrectly, the relationship goes the other way. Bush goes up or down, and then the price of gas follows (reversed).

Maybe the Saudis are manipulating the price of gas in response to the rise and fall in Bush's rating, but other than that (unlikely) possibility, I can't see what the connection is.

by DavidD 2004-07-04 07:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: Gas price responds to Bush popularity

Yea, you're reading the chart wrong. The gasoline price chart is inverse-- when it moves up, the price is going down, which then moves Bush's approval up.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-07-04 07:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: Gas price responds to Bush popularity

Jerome, no, you misunderstand my objection.

I understand about the gas price line being inverted. I'm talking about the time order of things. Yes, the two are correlated, but the line for Bush's approval changes before the line for gas price changes. So the cause-effect relationship, if it exists, is the opposite from what the original post said.

by DavidD 2004-07-04 04:01PM | 0 recs

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Ok, maybe...

But aren't there a lot of unconsidered variables here? Bush's approval also has a lot to do with how Iraq is going, and when it looks like it's going very badly, oil goes up and Bush goes down.

Sure there's a correlation. But rule #1 of science is that correlation is not necessarily indicative of causation.

Do not go gentle into that good night...

by tenacity 2004-07-04 03:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: Ok, maybe...

Yea, the number one variable is in the pocketbook that's hit when you fill it up. That "Bush's approval also has a lot to do with how Iraq is going" is built upon the same sort of correlation type of measurement.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-07-04 04:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pollkatz is back! It's the gas price stupid!

US people are that stupid.
(I have lived in the smarter sections, NY & San Francisco, and they werent that smart)
They are so stupid that they dont know whats going on in Iraq.
They can count the change left after they fill up their stupid vehicles

by gbruno 2006-07-03 05:25PM | 0 recs