Professor Sam Wang of Princeton University has conducted an interesting analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election that is based on a higher level of statistics than I can quickly grasp. Still, I think I get the gist of it, and I can't find any real holes in his analysis (emphasis in original): Counting the last six polls the current probability of a Kerry win is 98 percent.

Counting only the last three polls the probability is 99.98 percent. 270 electoral votes (EV) are needed to win. The current 50th percentile outcome for Kerry is 296 EV. The 95 percent confidence band is 270-322 EV. (...)

Current probabilities by state (rounded to the nearest percentage point): AR 15, AZ 0, FL 98, IA 100, ME 98, MI 100, MN 100, MO 11, NV 25, NH 96, NM 100, OH 26, OR 100, PA 89, WA 100, WV 18, WI 88. The calculation is currently dominated by the large states FL (98%), PA (89%), and OH (26%). In most high-likelihood scenarios, two of these are needed to get over 270 EV.

His methodology, explained on his page, is simply to calculate all of the possible outcomes in these seventeen states based on the percentages listed. Kerry wins in 98% of those scenarios. The percentage chance to win a state is determined by state polls.

Good news? Sure, but this is based only on recent polls, and polls can change. Right now, few people would argue that if the election were held tomorrow that Bush would win. However, I tip my hat to such solid analysis, and look forward to future calculations.