Swing States and TV Advertising
by Chris Bowers, Mon Jul 12, 2004 at 02:05:05 PM EDT
Kerry has just taken the lead over Bush in terms of total TV ads. Cool. However, what is far cooler is the analysis of advertising per state that appears in a separate article, also by Mark Memmott, in USA Today. In this article, he divides the number of ads run in a state by the number of electoral votes in the state:
Through June 26, the Bush campaign had run its ads an average of 393 times per electoral vote in the 17 states. But per electoral vote in those four states, Bush's ads had run 589 times (50% above average) in Iowa, 466 (19%) in Missouri, 470 (20%) in Ohio and 545 (39%) in Wisconsin.Kerry's 17-state average was 405 ad showings per electoral vote. The Democratic candidate's ad pace in the four states getting the most attention: Iowa, 548 showings per electoral vote (35% above average); Missouri, 494 (22%); Ohio, 476 (18%); and Wisconsin, 593 (46%). (...)
There are seven states where both campaigns have run significantly fewer ads than their 17-state averages: Arkansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia.
Not only is it surprising that both campaigns have the same top four states, but that they also have the same bottom seven. It is particularly stunning that Pennsylvania is not in the top ten in terms of ads per electoral vote, considering how much time both candidates regularly spend in the Keystone state.If Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin truly are the key to his election, then this article appeared a couple of weeks too late for Gephardt. Se la vie.
Tags: General 2008 (all tags)
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