With and Without Fox

by Chris Bowers, Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 09:52:27 AM EDT

Cross posted from the Swing State Project

Just how much are the Fox polls from last week propping up Bush? I have run the numbers for how much they affect my projections:

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, With Fox PollsNational Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.25
Bush:  48.75
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush:  274
Kerry: 264
States Changing Hands: NH to Kerry

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, Without Fox PollsNational Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.03
Bush:  47.97
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 311
Bush:  227
States Changing Hands: FL, NH and Ohio to Kerry

Kerry Lead, Important States
	 With Fox		 Without Fox
FL	  -0.02 		    2.1
MI	   3.4		    5.7
MO	  -1.4		   -0.5
OH	  -1.6		    0.3
PA	   4.6		    7.1
WV	  -0.9		   -0.02
In short, Fox turns a slight Kerry lead into a race that is too close to call. Fox News--we report, but only after receiving directions from the RNC.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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3 Comments

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Faux: Fair and Balanced
with a thumb on the scale...

Someday they will have to explain how their polls varied from the actual result.

(unless their numbers are those to be programmed into the e-voting machines....).

by JimPortlandOR 2004-07-01 10:51AM | 0 recs
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Re: What about Zogby polls?
They are both without Zogby. Besides, I don't include Zogby trial heats or job ratings anyway. He always only released "likely" voters (I try to only include registered voters in trial heats), and his approve / disapprove is done along the strange Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor scale. The only I Zogby I ever use are favorable numbers, and he hasn't released any of those in many weeks.
by Chris Bowers 2004-07-01 04:27PM | 0 recs
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Re: Well then,
Removing Fox altogether is certainly worth considering. I still have not made up my mind, however.
by Chris Bowers 2004-07-02 10:39AM | 0 recs

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