1. Nader must win at the Green Party convention to have any relevance in the 2004 election.

Currently, Ralph Nader has ballot access in exactly seven states: Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina and Texas. In all seven cases, his ballot access was achieved only through the Reform Party's endorsement. Arizona, Wisconsin and Oregon are his next best chances, but he faces serious obstacles in all three. As of May 31st, Nader had $73,412.61 cash on hand, minus around $24,000 in debts. In May alone, he spent $95,000 in Texas, while only raising $189,555 nationally. In 2000, Nader raised over $8,400,000, more than eight times his current total.

Considering his current ballot progress and financials, it is pretty clear that Nader does not have the resources to achieve ballot status in many, if any, more states. Examples of this come today from Indiana, where Nader has not even come close to achieving the signatures he needed in order make the ballot, and where his second effort in Oregon only has a chance of succeeding through the aid of Republican groups. His only route to significant ballot access is through the Green party, which is also the only explanation for why he chose Peter Camejo as his running mate. Nader's impact on this election will be determined almost entirely on Saturday in Milwaukee. The Green party has ballot access in 22 states plus DC, and has the resources to secure Nader's place on the ballot in many more. With the backing of the Green and reform parties, Nader will be on the ballot almost everywhere. Without the backing of the Green party, Nader is sunk--John Hagelin level sunk.

The states where the Green party has ballot access are Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Washington, D.C.

2. Nader is not seeking the nomination of the Green Party, he is seeking the "endorsement."

Nader's strategy to win at the Green party convention is highly unusual. Instead of seeking the Green Party nomination, he is trying to get the Green party to nominate "no nominee." According to Green Party Presidential Nomination rules, "no nominee" is considered a viable option: (emphasis mine)

Delegates vote in multiple rounds until there is a simple majority for a candidate that will accept the nomination, or a simple majority for not fielding a presidential ticket. After the second and all subsequent rounds, last-place candidates and all candidates receiving less than 10% of the vote during the rounds will be eliminated except as otherwise stated... "No Nominee" shall remain an option through all rounds of voting. If Cobb wins, he will at least be on the ballot in all twenty-two states plus D.C., and possibly as many as 35. However, if "no nominee" wins, then individual state parties will be allowed to place anyone on the ballot they wish. In this scenario, many of the state parties will probably endorse Nader. However, Cobb owns a majority of delegates in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado*, Delaware*, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon*, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin* (full-state-by state delegate totals, * = state with automatic ballot access). Thus, even with a "no nominee" victory, Nader's ballot access will be restricted since a significant number of state Green parties will neither endorse nor work for him.

3. The Current Standings

First, the Presidential nomination will take place tomorrow, June 26th. Before the convention started, here were the delegate totals:

David Cobb	   240.5
Uncommitted	   173.5
Peter Camejo	   114.5
None of the Above     88.5
Ralph Nader	    64.5
Others		    64.5

However, because Camejo is Nader's running mate, and because Nader and Nader's forces are seeking a "no nominee" victory, in reality the standings are as follows

No Nominee	   267.5
David Cobb	   240.5
Uncommitted	   173.5
Others		    64.5

Wafer thin. Whatever your opinion on Nader, you have to be impressed that through his VP choice and a clever use of convention rules he has managed to increase "his" delegate total fourfold and move into a slight lead. This is exactly the sort of thing a political junkie such as myself dreams will happen at major party convention at least once in my lifetime. I honestly have no idea what will happen--it looks like a 50-50 shot. Check C-SPAN for television coverage near you, or come to MyDD for what I promise will be regular updates.

In the end, even if Nader wins, his ballot access will be far less than what it was in 2000. In fact, it is possible that he will only make the ballot in 25 states or less. On the other hand, if Cobb wins, Nader will lose even his limited potential to have an impact on the race. Since Cobb has much lower name recognition and has repeatedly pledged to run a "safe states" campaign where he avoids the closest states, he will almost certainly not have any significant "spoiler" impact on the election. In fact, if Cobb wins, expect the Libertarian and Constitution parties to play a larger combined "spoiler" role for Bush than Cobb + Nader will for Kerry. In other words, go Cobb (he is probably even the best choice for the Green party), but it is probably time to stop including Nader in national trial heats no matter what happens.