Kerry Winning or Threatening Almost Everywhere

by Chris Bowers, Wed May 26, 2004 at 08:00:10 AM EDT

Think I'm nuts for guessing Kerry will win 420 electoral votes? Check out DC Political Report's standings.

Also, I've drawn a map!

Dark red is solid Kerry, light red is lean Kerry, light blue is lean Bush, dark blue is solid Bush.

(Yeah, I reversed the colors. Why do blueblood Republicans get to be red instead of public sector Democrats? This is how they should be.)

For those of you keeping score, which is probably most of you, this breaks down as follows:

		 Kerry	    Bush       
By more than 7	   245	     133  
By less than 7	    82         78
Total		   327	     211FL, TN and WV are the three close ones right now.

Kerry is winning by 116 electoral votes. His "solid base" is almost twice as large as Bush's. Kerry is within three points of 343 electoral votes. He is within seven points of 405. Georgia, 15 electoral votes, is almost certainly the next state to go soft on Bush.

Right now, I project Kerry up by four points nationally. If he were to go up by eleven, he might very well be leading in 420 electoral votes worth of states. At the very least, it seems best to set our sites that high.

Update: Iowa has moved back to Kerry again. My insanity moves one step closer to becoming truth.

Update #2: Come for the political analysis, stay for my artwork.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Re: Georgia

Although I admire the sentiment and think you are right on a number of points. I have to say that Kerry will not win Georgia. Even in the largest blowout, I just don't see it happening.

Keep up the good fight.

by dylanh 2004-05-26 08:12AM | 0 recs

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Bush's Criminal Acts

"Bush would have to do something criminal for Kerry to get over 400EV." Would you like the list in alphabetical or chronological order?

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 08:35AM | 0 recs

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The Bush Rove Criminal Conspiracy

Understanding the Bush Gangster occupation of the White House requires that we understand how they got there.

Years before a single vote was cast in 2000, George W Bush and Karl Rove put in motion a plan to steal the election.

The Florida Voter Purge was a Karl Rove scheme, and was put it motion no later than the Summer of 1998. It was first tried in Texas, in 1982. That plot was discovered and foiled, but it was far more successful the second time around.

While the Texas Blueprint for the Stolen Election is too obscure to bring down Bush Rove, it could help seal their fate -- especially if they threaten to drag the GOP down with them.

democrats.com/blueprint

by ck 2004-05-27 07:35PM | 0 recs

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I'm missing something

OK, as I understand it, just the Gore states from 2000 are 260 EVs. This map shows Kerry picking up Ohio and New Hampshire, while losing Iowa. That'd be enough for a win, but how does that add up to 320 EVs? Are you including the "too close to call" green states, or am I missing something?

by kuff 2004-05-26 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Click te link to DC Politcal Report

Kerry has small leads in Missouri, Florida and Nevada as well. Plus, Bush has the smallest of leads in Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, and many more.

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 07:03PM | 0 recs

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Georgia

Clinton won Georgia twice.

by Matt Stoller 2004-05-26 12:24PM | 0 recs

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And...

And Georgia has been trending hard right ever since.

by Mr Moderate 2004-05-26 02:01PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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trending in turnout anyway

I think there's an opportunity for the Democrats in Georgia, if they could just figure out how to turnout their vote like the Republicans have.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-05-26 04:45PM | 0 recs

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Oh, and to answer your question:

"Think I'm nuts for guessing Kerry will win 420 electoral votes?"

Yes, yes I do. I also think you have a fundamental lack of understanding regarding southern politics.

by Mr Moderate 2004-05-26 02:54PM | 0 recs

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Every southern State

Currently, Kerry is winning one of the seven southern states I predict he will win (Florida, which has been trending Democrat, and should turn to a partisan DNC advantage this time around). In two of the states, TN and AR, Bush is only up by 3 or less. Two have no polling information, but are only at 8.7 + GOP partisan and trending Dem (Virginia) and + 12 GOP partisan, although Clinton won it once (Georgia) among the most right wing Southern states. One shows Kerry within seven, and also happens to be the home state of the next vice-President. the other state in Louisiana, where Kerry's internal polling must tell him seomthing, because he is running ads there. Got more than cliches and simple dismissals?

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 07:09PM | 0 recs

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All right.

"In two of the states, TN and AR, Bush is only up by 3 or less."

According to a Zogby internet poll. Another words, these polls are absolutely worthless. And since that map is based on the most recent polling, and since the most recent polling in just about every battleground state is that awful Zogby poll, that map is virtually meaningless. The last non-Zogby poll in those two states alone show Bush with a healthy lead. A similar pattern emerges with polling in virtually every other state but Iowa.

Further, you seem to be also relying on the faulty premise that if Kerry improves his poll numbers by five points nationwide, then his poll numbers will increase by five points in every state. This is clearly false.

Then, of course, your arguments are heavily laced with maybes and hypotheticals (Maybe Georgia is close! Kerry must know something in Louisiana! Edwards is gonna be the VP choice!). Yet your arguement that Kerry will win by a landslide is not qualified with a "maybe".

I have also noticed you backing off on your idea that Kerry might carry Alabama with the revelation that Bush is ahead by 19% in the state. Ditto with Kansas, where the latest poll has Bush expanding his lead to 18%. Bush is up by 21% in Indiana, another state you think could go for Kerry. The latest poll in Mississippi? Bush up by 31%. That's another state you were considering going to Kerry.

Your logic is faulty, your poll numbers are faulty, and you now seem to be insisting that I disprove something that you never proved yourself. Your analysis deserves a simple dismissal.

by Mr Moderate 2004-05-26 09:12PM | 0 recs

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The stuff about Alabama

Was always qualified with a maybe. Go back and read it again. Its the 420 that I made multiple claims about, both here and elsewhere.

1. Arkansas

Last four polls out of Arkansas:

49.3-44.5

45-45

47-45

50.9-42.5

What a blowout. If, as you claim, Zogby polls are meaningless, then the state is even closer than I thought, as Zogby gives him a 4.8% lead. I do not know why you make such a claim, however, since the most accurate pollster of all, Harris, works almsot exclusively over the internet.

Bush had a 47-46 job rating in Arkansas last October. He's got the state locked up. I'm sure that if Kerry goes up by more nationally, that none of those people will be from Arkansas.

2. Florida

No comment necessary. Obviously, a democrat can win here. Check out the long term voting trends:

1984 GOP +6.6, DNC -5.9

1988 GOP +7.5, DNC -7.0

1992 GOP +3.6, DNC -4.0

1996 GOP +1.5, DNC -1.2

2000 GOP +1.0, DNC +0.5 (DNC & Green -0.5)

Considering these voting trends, this state has all the potential to become part ofthe Democratic base.

3. Tennessee

Last four polls out of Tennessee:

49.3-46.8

52-41

48-44

47-43 (from Mason Dixon)

Which one is not like the other one? The blowout. Clearly, Kerry has no chance in a state where he is down by around three or four points five months from the election.

4. Virginia

No polling info from Virginia for some time now. However, here are the long term voting trends:

1984 GOP +4.5, DNC -3.5

1988 GOP +6.4, DNC -6.4

1992 GOP +7.6, DNC -2.4

1996 GOP +6.4, DNC -4.1

2000 GOP +4.7, DNC -3.9 (DNC & Green -4.4)

What a horribly trending state for Democrats. Surely, improving for three consecutive election cycles, in a state Bush won with 51% of the vote, during an election where Bush might get creamed--well, Dems have no chance at Virginia. what am I thinking?

5. North Carolina.

I submit this article into evidence. Further, as a recent poll notes (a Mason-dixon poll, no less), add Edwards, and NC is already a toss-up, no blow-out needed.

6. Louisiana

Not much polling out of here recently. Just one lone Republican poll that shows Bush well ahead. However, you might find this old poll interesting:

Multi-Quest International poll. Late Feb.-early March, 2003. N=586 registered voters statewide:

"If the next presidential election included Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican George Bush, for which candidate would you vote?"

Bush: 49

Hillary Clinton: 42

(from the subcriber section of polling report).

The ever hated Hillary within 7 points of Bush at a time when he was crushing unnamed Democrats by double-digits. There are also these voting trends:

1984 GOP +2.0, DNC -2.4

1988 GOP +0.9, DNC -1.5

1992 GOP +3.6, DNC +2.6

1996 GOP -0.8, DNC +2.8

2000 GOP +4.6, DNC -3.5 (DNC & Green -6.0)

Clearly trending Democratic until 2000. It is entirely possible that 2000 is a fluke, and largely the result of good targeting by Bush (or poor targeting by Gore since he pulled out of there early). Even if not, its still only GOP +8.1, which can definately be overcome in a large enough landslide.

Further, its not just that Kerry is running ads there, but that Bush countered. Both sides seem to find the state competitive.

7. Georgia

Clearly, the biggest stretch of the seven southern states I believe Kerry will win. A hefty 12 point GOP partisan index, and absolutely no polling in the state at all.

I can't back up this state as much as the other six, but it is next in line on the chopping block as Kerry's lead gets bigger.

Also, the African-American population in Georgia is increasing at a rapid rate, especially around the Atlanta area. Many African-Americans are moving South again, which in the long term might make the region truly swing once again. In a blowout in 2004, it might tip the balance in Kerry's favor.

Finally, while you dismiss the notion that Kerry's national increses do not result in increases everywhere, I submit as counter-evidence that as Kerry has risen over the pst three or four weeks he has, well, risen just about in every state over the last four weeks as well. If Kerry wins by 14 points, its not going to be because of New York, which already voted 2-1 against Bush in a toss-up nationwide election. Those votes will almost have to come from areas outside of Kerry's base.

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 10:36PM | 0 recs

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That wasn't me

You might note that there are two authors on this site. I was neither of them in 2002.

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 07:09PM | 0 recs

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The new drunken, repetitive trolls

Are making me consider forcing people to sign in when they post.

by Chris Bowers 2004-05-26 07:11PM | 0 recs

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I continue to be unconvinced about the landslide

        Kerry    Bush
By 8 or more    188    133
By 3 to 7        112    62
By less than 3    27    16
Total        327    211
FL, TN and WV are the three close ones right now.

Kerry is winning by 116 electoral votes. His "solid base" is 50% larger than Bush's, and his "lean" base is almost twice as large as Bush's. Kerry is within three points of 343 electoral votes. He is within seven points of 405. Georgia, 15 electoral votes, is almost certainly the next state to go soft on Bush.

Florida is still pretty tight right now, but I'm on the verge of putting it in Kerry's column, but there's really no evidence of slippage in Tennessee and West Virginia:

?>G Tennessee (11) - was GOP by 3.86% \ Zogby 2/26 EV in play \ MiddleTNStateU 2/28 K44-B48 moe3.7 \ Cook 3/2: probable GOP \ Survey USA 3/22 K41-B52 moe3.9 \ Bowers 5/7 lean GOP, slide GOP \ Gersh 5/7 LEAN GOP \ Zogby 5/24 K46.8-B49.3-N0.6 moe3 (B+2.5in) \

?>G West Virginia (5) - was GOP by 6.32% \ Zogby 2/26 EV in play \ Cook 3/2: lean GOP \ ARG 3/24 K46-B46-N2 moe4 \ Rasmussen 4/15 K41-B46 moe4.5 \ Ipsos 4/29 K45-B49-N3 moe3 \ Bowers 5/7 lean GOP. slide GOP \ Gersh 5/7 BGROUND \ Zogby 5/24 K45.9-B48.3-N2 moe4.4 (B+2.4in) \

I mean, Kerry has yet to have any kind of a lead in either state, so I think they have to be put into Bush's column unless something develops.

Accepting your other figures, that give Kerry 327+27=354 and Bush 211+5+11=227. That's still a Kerry win, but a far cry from a 420-vote landslide.

Color me continuing to me skeptical.

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-05-26 10:10PM | 0 recs

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Ooops.

Sorry, screwed up on that last post (one too many Long Island Ice Teas after rehearsal tonight), I see now that your figures already include Florida, West Virginia and Tennessee. Oops.

But, look, the overall point is still valid, 327 is still a far cry from 420, and I just don't see a lot of other states that have been classed as "safe" for Bush softening enough to switch over to Kerry. If I see some evidence for it, in the form of poll results, maybe I'll think differently, but until then I'm sticking with my more (sorry) conservative estimate, which is currently:

DEM: ME-4, MI-17, MN-10, NH-4, OH-20, OR-7, PA-21, WA-11, WA-10
(104 swing + 168 safe = 272)

GOP: AZ-10, AR-6, CO-9, LA-9, NV-5, TN-11, VA-13, WV-5
(68 swing + 148 safe = 216)

IN PLAY: FL-27, IA-7, MO-11, NM-5 (50)

DEM 272 / GOP 216 / PLAY 50

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-05-26 10:24PM | 0 recs

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I believe

Kerry has a legitimate shot at North Carolina (if Edwards is his running mate)and/or Arkansas and/or Louisiana. (Listed in most likely order). Other than those, I predict Bush runs the table in the south.

NOTE: I do not consider Florida "the South". The state make-up is widely dissimilar to NC, SC, Georgia, Alabama, and the like.

But it puts me in a good mood to see PA and MI in your "strong Kerry" column. With those and FL, we win. I don't care by how much. Only that we get rid of Bush.

by CoolHandLuc 2004-05-26 11:36PM | 0 recs

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Red Republicans

Could using red for Republicans have anything to do with the Nancy Regan red dress thing? Remember how women in congress started wearing red dresses because Nancy liked to wear red dresses? Reporters too. Regan would call on them if they wore red.

by mpower1952 2004-05-26 11:54PM | 0 recs