A few polls from last month put the race at within 10 percent; the latest, The Keystone Poll on 4/25-29/04, showed Specter with a 50-28 percent lead among "adults" polled. However, only about 10 percent, if that, of Pennsylvania adults are going to vote in the primary. Money was considered Specter's ace-in-the-hole, but with groups like the Club For Growth raising $700K in hard money and $950K in soft money for Toomey, and probably thousands of small donors giving to the Conservative battling the RINO, money's no longer an deciding factor.

Toomey has noticible grassroots strength on the internet too. ToomeyBlog.com is up and going with a claim of 50K visitors in the past few days. Toomey's meetup numbers, over 900 meeting in 8 different locations throughout the state, are second only to Obama.

The Democrats have Hoeffel in waiting. Not too inspiring, but he seems to know how to win with 51-53% consistently over the years. He's hoping for Toomey, and is likely to get his wish.

Update: Toomey hasn't yet closed the deal with the ultra conservative voters that will give him the victory: While 43 percent of likely Republican voters believe Specter is too liberal to ably represent the GOP, conservatives are split between the politically moderate senator and the conservative Toomey, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. However, look at Toomey's lack of name id and Specter's high negative ratings. This has the look of a race that will break late for Toomey, as long as he doesn't screw up, or let Specter defeat him over the airwaves.